scholarly journals Meat price volatility as implications for food security in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 883 (1) ◽  
pp. 012068
Author(s):  
R P Destiarni ◽  
A S Jamil ◽  
F Septya
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Domestic Price ◽  
Fresh Meat ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Meat Price ◽  
Conditional Effect ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Research Period

Abstract Indonesian meat consumption has 40 percent deficit which was covered by importing. Meat price in international market tend to fluctuate. The gap between domestic demand and supply meat also the imported price fluctuation causes instability of domestic price. This research is conducted to analyze the volatility of meat price which implicated to food security in Indonesia. ARCH-GARCH model is used to estimate meat price volatility in Indonesia. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and cointegration test have been used for testing the presence of unit root and cointegration in the series. Langrange multiplier has been utilized to detect the presence of autoregressive conditional effect. Daily meat prices used are national average price which obtained from the Indonesia Ministry of Trade. This study reveals that meat price in Indonesia has high volatility with increasing price over the research period. The empirical model also shows asymetry effect. The results recommend that Indonesia should apply comprehensive managed import such as not only import on fresh meat and ready to cut bovine but also on breeding bovine. By the fulfilling production and stock, meat price can be more stable. By the price stabilization, food security concept will be reached so that every layer society can consume meat.

Crude Oil Price and Food Security Related Variables in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu ◽  
Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Objective - This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and food security related variables (crude palm oil price, exchange rate, food import, food price index, food production index, income per capita and government development expenditure) in Malaysia using a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Methodology/Technique - The data covered the period of 1980-2014. Impulse response functions (IRFs) was applied to examine what will be the results of crude oil price changes to the variables in the model. To explore the impact of variation in crude oil prices on the selected food security related variables forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) was employed. Findings - Findings from IRFs suggest there are positive effects of oil price changes on food import and food price index. The VDC analyses suggest that crude oil price changes have relatively largest impact on real crude palm oil price, food import and food price index. This study would suggest to revisiting the formulation of food price policy by including appropriate weight of crude oil price volatility. In terms of crude oil palm price determination, the volatility of crude oil prices should be taken into account. Overdependence on food imports also needs to be reduced. Novelty - As the largest response of crude oil price volatility on related food security variables food vouchers can be implemented. Food vouchers have advantages compared to direct cash transfers since it can be targeted and can be restricted to certain types of products and group of people. Hence, it can act as a better aid compared cash transfers. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Crude oil price, Food security related variables, IRF, VAR, VDC

scholarly journals PRICE INTERACTIONS AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG CORN, EXCHANGE RATE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN SOURCES IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Unekwu Onuche
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Poultry Meat ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Meat Price ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Price transmissions between corn, exchange rate, poultry meat, and fish were investigated using the data from OECD-FAO for the years 1990-2019, to establish the existence of long-term relationships between them and identify their directions of causality, in order to elicit investmentaiding facts. The augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the Johansen cointegration approach and the Granger causality test were employed. Following the ADF test, all series are I(1), while the cointegration test indicates short-run dynamics between them. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) system reveals that poultry meat price influences all variables, prices of poultry meat and exchange rate relate positively to their own lags, and exchange rate relates positively to lags of poultry meat prices. A positive relationship was noticed between fish price and lags of poultry meat price, while corn price relates positively with lags of poultry meat price. Granger causality tests indicate unidirectional drives from poultry price to fish price, the exchange rate to fish price and poultry meat price to corn price. Responses from prices of fish, corn and poultry to innovations from exchange rate are negative, while positive responses exist in other scenarios. Exchange rate stabilization will mitigate external risks, especially to the fisheries sector, while corn farmers can increase profits in the short-run by exploring knowledge of poultry meat price movements.

scholarly journals Analysis of Recent Rice Price Dynamics in Bangladesh: Causes and Policy Options

2021 ◽  
pp. 54-69
Author(s):  
Mohammad Chhiddikur Rahman ◽  
Md. Abdur Rouf Sarkar ◽  
Md. Abdus Salam ◽  
Jahangir Alam ◽  
Md. Mosharraf Uddin Molla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Food Security Status ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Price Hike

Rice availability and affordability are the key determinants of food security in Bangladesh. Therefore, it becomes the most important crop for the social and political economy of the country. Although a tremendous technological advancement contributed to the increasing trend of rice production, its affordability threatened due to the increasing price at the consumers’ level. The recent natural calamities and COVID-19 have worsened the food security status across the world. This research has estimated the demand and supply of rice in the pandemic era and figured out the drivers of recent price hike both in the producers’ and consumers’ levels using empirical and cognitive approaches. Based on the findings, some actionable policy options have been suggested to address the price level of rice in Bangladesh towards sustaining food security.

scholarly journals Analisis Volatilitas Harga Cabai Keriting di Indonesia dengan Pendekatan ARCH GARCH

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Rizka Amalia Nugrahapsari ◽  
Idha Widi Arsanti
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
High Price ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Price Stabilization ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
The Government ◽  
Import Restrictions ◽  
The Right

<strong>English</strong><br />Chili includes a strategic commodity in Indonesia because of its high price volatility that makes it a major determinant of national inflation dynamics. The government always tries to improve its capability in implementing the chili price stabilization policy. The objective of the study is to assess the volatility of curly chili price volatility in Indonesia by using the ARCH GARCH approach with daily price data of January 2011 to December 2015. The results showed that the right model to calculate chili price volatility is ARCH (1). The price volatility was low and price movement was only influenced by the volatility in the previous day, not by the price variant, so the chili price volatility in the future will be smaller. Low volatility indicates that demand and supply characteristics were predictable. Price changes gradually and predictable. Farmers’ protection policy through import restrictions improves stability of domestic supply. The policy reduces the risk of drastic decline in prices due to imported chili, so the price volatility of chili in the period 2011–2015 was lower than the previous period. However, the seasonal price variation remains. Therefore, the policy should be supported with all season chili availability assurance.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Cabai termasuk komoditas strategis di Indonesia karena harganya volatil sehingga menjadi salah satu penentu utama dinamika inflasi nasional. Untuk itu, pemerintah senantiasa berusaha meningkatkan kemampuannya dalam melaksanakan kebijakan stabilisasi harga cabai. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji volatilitas harga cabai keriting di Indonesia dengan pendekatan ARCH GARCH dan data harga harian cabai keriting periode Januari 2011 hingga Desember 2015. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model yang tepat untuk menghitung volatilitas harga cabai keriting adalah ARCH(1). Hasil pendugaan model menunjukkan volatilitas harga cabai keriting rendah dan pergerakan harga hanya dipengaruhi oleh volatilitas pada satu hari sebelumnya, tidak dipengaruhi varian harga, sehingga diperkirakan volatilitas harga cabai keriting di masa datang akan semakin kecil. Volatilitas yang rendah menunjukkan karakteristik waktu permintaan dan penawaran cabai keriting dapat diprediksi. Perubahan harga terjadi bertahap dan dapat diperkirakan. Kebijakan perlindungan petani melalui pembatasan impor cabai menyebabkan penyediaan cabai di dalam negeri menjadi lebih stabil. Kebijakan ini mengurangi risiko penurunan harga secara drastis akibat masuknya cabai impor, sehingga volatilitas harga cabai pada periode 2011–2015 lebih rendah dibandingkan periode sebelumnya. Namun, masih terdapat variasi harga musiman. Oleh karena itu, kebijakan ini perlu diperkuat dengan upaya jaminan sediaan cabai sepanjang musim.

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