Meat price volatility as implications for food security in Indonesia

Indonesian meat consumption has 40 percent deficit which was covered by importing. Meat price in international market tend to fluctuate. The gap between domestic demand and supply meat also the imported price fluctuation causes instability of domestic price. This research is conducted to analyze the volatility of meat price which implicated to food security in Indonesia. ARCH-GARCH model is used to estimate meat price volatility in Indonesia. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and cointegration test have been used for testing the presence of unit root and cointegration in the series. Langrange multiplier has been utilized to detect the presence of autoregressive conditional effect. Daily meat prices used are national average price which obtained from the Indonesia Ministry of Trade. This study reveals that meat price in Indonesia has high volatility with increasing price over the research period. The empirical model also shows asymetry effect. The results recommend that Indonesia should apply comprehensive managed import such as not only import on fresh meat and ready to cut bovine but also on breeding bovine. By the fulfilling production and stock, meat price can be more stable. By the price stabilization, food security concept will be reached so that every layer society can consume meat.

Introducing the World’s First Global Producer Price Indices for Beef Cattle and Sheep

While international beef and sheep meat price developments are usually measured with meat trade prices (provided by FAO), no comparable information exists on world average of national prices that producers receive for livestock. This paper aims to fill this gap by introducing a set of global producer price indices representing cattle, lambs, and sheep prices as received by producers: the agri benchmark of weaner cattle, finished cattle, lambs and lambs and sheep price indices. These Laspeyres, production-weighted indices measure changes in global farm gate prices as provided annually by the agri benchmark Beef and Sheep Network, with this paper covering prices between 2000 and 2019. The results showed that growing Asian imports, local economic developments in South America, the interconnection with the dairy sector in Europe, growth of beef consumption in China and exchange rates shifts are the key factors that drove developments of global beef producer prices over the past 20 years. Droughts in Oceania and the rapid rise in China’s sheep meat prices are highly reflected in the Global Lambs and Lambs and Sheep Meat Price indices. The indices indicate whether cattle and sheep producers globally are receiving more, or less, for the commodity and may increase or reduce production and investment accordingly. This will be of more use if there were similar producer price indices for competing enterprises, such as dairy and cropping, and for competing proteins, such as pigs, poultry, and fish.

PRICE INTERACTIONS AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG CORN, EXCHANGE RATE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN SOURCES IN NIGERIA

Price transmissions between corn, exchange rate, poultry meat, and fish were investigated using the data from OECD-FAO for the years 1990-2019, to establish the existence of long-term relationships between them and identify their directions of causality, in order to elicit investmentaiding facts. The augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the Johansen cointegration approach and the Granger causality test were employed. Following the ADF test, all series are I(1), while the cointegration test indicates short-run dynamics between them. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) system reveals that poultry meat price influences all variables, prices of poultry meat and exchange rate relate positively to their own lags, and exchange rate relates positively to lags of poultry meat prices. A positive relationship was noticed between fish price and lags of poultry meat price, while corn price relates positively with lags of poultry meat price. Granger causality tests indicate unidirectional drives from poultry price to fish price, the exchange rate to fish price and poultry meat price to corn price. Responses from prices of fish, corn and poultry to innovations from exchange rate are negative, while positive responses exist in other scenarios. Exchange rate stabilization will mitigate external risks, especially to the fisheries sector, while corn farmers can increase profits in the short-run by exploring knowledge of poultry meat price movements.

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Volatility of Broiler Meat Prices in Pasuruan Regency, East Java Province

The research was aimed to analyze of broiler meat price fluctuation, identify the factors competitor foodstuffs price that influence of broiler meat price, and identify alternative foodstuffs of broiler meat at consumer level in Pasuruan. The determination of location was did deliberately with consideration that in 2013, the production of broiler meat in Pasuruan was fourth highest production after Malang, Sidoarjo and Jombang , it was 8,842 million kg. This research was used secondary data from January 2010 until November 2015. The analytical method used is the price volatilitass analysis and multiple linear regression. The results showed that the value of broiler meat price volatility in Pasuruan tend to be small (low volatility) and happen quickly. Factors competitor foodstuffs price that influence the price of broiler meat in Pasuruan simultaneously influenced by the price of local chicken meat, beef prices, the price of eggs, and prices of salted anchovies fish. While partially, broiler meat prices at the consumer level in Pasuruan influenced by the price of beef and the price of eggs. The relation between the both showed that: broiler meat is alternative foodstuffs for beef, eggs are alternative foodstuffs for meat broiler, salted anchovies fish is complements for broiler meat.

Current trends in meat price formation

The article examines the main trends in meat price formation.It is determined that the methodology and tradition of price functioning have evolved historically in terms of understanding the nature and characteristics of the price. The level of product price contains the conflicting interests of different parts (producer and consumer). It is generalized that the formation of livestock products prices is influenced by supply and demand.It is confirmed that price is a factor that creates demand in case of the low consumers’ purchasing power. The process of prices forming on livestock products is based on the general principles of pricing. However, there are certain features of pricing stipulated from the specifics of production and processing of livestock products.Among the main factors influencing the prices formation on livestock products should be noted the following: natural and climatic conditions, price disparity in agriculture, the presence of a large number of households which deal with raising cattle and poultry,high level of production costs, the presence of multiple links in the production chain, a short period of product storage, a large proportion of low-income population.It is proved that the livestock product prices in market conditions must respond quickly to any changes in the production chain. The analysis of the price situation on the meat market was carried out.It was found that in Ukraine during the study period there is a tendency of increasing purchasing, wholesale and consumer prices.In the first half-year of 2020, there were significant changes in the price situation.The results confirm the trends at the world meat market.It is proved that the situation at the domestic meat market depends on the state of the global market. It is noted that in the future the price situation at the meat market will depend on the purchasing power of the population, the proposal of main meat types, the exchange rate of the national currency, production and export volumes. Keywords: price, demand, supply, meat market, purchase prices, wholesale prices, consumer prices, beef, pork, poultry meat.

Disease Outbreak, Health Scare, and Distance Decay: Evidence from HPAI Shocks in Chinese Meat Sector

Background: During zoonotic disease shocks (ZDSs), zoonotic disease outbreaks (ZDOs) can induce public health scares (PHSs), causing meat price risks (MPRs). Nevertheless, spatial spillovers of zoonotic disease shocks in meat markets remain unclear. We explore how zoonotic disease outbreaks and public health scares locally and spatially spill over to meat price risks, and whether spatial spillovers of public health scares decay with distance. Methods: (i) We construct a long panel covering 30 provinces and 121 months, using highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemics as exogenous shocks in Chinese meat sector. (ii) We decompose zoonotic disease shocks into zoonotic disease outbreaks (objective incident) and public health scares (subjective information) and examine their spillovers to meat price risks. (iii) We identify distance-decaying spatial spillovers of public health scares, by running our dynamic SAR models 147 times, from 80 km to 3000 km with 20 km as incremental value, in a setting with risk-level heterogeneity. Results: (i) Zoonotic disease outbreaks themselves only cause local and neighboring meat price risks for high-risk meat, not for low-risk or substitute meat. (ii) Public health scares exacerbate local and neighboring meat price risks for high-risk and low-risk meat, and local meat price risks for substitute meat. (iii) Spatial spillovers of public health scares are distance-decaying and U-shaped, with four spatial attenuation boundaries, and distance turning point is shorter for high-risk meat (500 km) than for low-risk meat (800 km). Conclusions: We complement the literature by arguing that health scares induced by disease outbreaks negatively spill over to meat prices, with U-shaped distance-decaying spatial effects. This suggests low interregional spatial market integration in meat products, due to distance decay of nonstandardized information and local government control effects, across provincial boundaries. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to document nonmonotonic distance decay of health scare effects on food prices, previously not found by the literature.

Public Health Interventions with Harms and Benefits: A Graphical Framework for Evaluating Tradeoffs

Background Evaluations of public health interventions typically report benefits and harms aggregated over the population. However, benefits and harms are not always evenly distributed. Examining disaggregated outcomes enables decision makers to consider health benefits and harms accruing to both intended intervention recipients and others in the population. Methods We provide a graphical framework for categorizing and comparing public health interventions that examines the distribution of benefit and harm between and within population subgroups for a single intervention and compares distributions of harm and benefit for multiple interventions. We demonstrate the framework through a case study of a hypothetical increase in the price of meat (5%, 10%, 25%, or 50%) that, via elasticity of demand, reduces consumption and consequently reduces body mass index. We examine how inequalities in benefits and harms (measured by quality-adjusted life-years) are distributed across a population of white and black males and females. Results A 50% meat price increase would yield the greatest net benefit to the population. However, because of reduced consumption among low-weight individuals, black males would bear disproportionate harm relative to the benefit they receive. With increasing meat price, the distribution of harm relative to benefit becomes less “internal” to those receiving benefit and more “distributed” to those not receiving commensurate benefit. When we segment the population by sex only, this result does not hold. Conclusions Disaggregating harms and benefits to understand their differential impact on subgroups can strongly affect which decision alternative is deemed optimal, as can the approach to segmenting the population. Our framework provides a useful tool for illuminating key tradeoffs relevant to harm-averse decision makers and those concerned with both equity and efficiency.

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN DAGING AYAM BURAS DI PASAR TRADISIONAL KOTA MANADO

FACTORS AFFECTING DEMAND FOR NATIVE CHICKEN MEAT IN TRADITIONAL MARKET MANADO CITY. The objective of this study was to know the influence of native chicken meat price, taste and consumers’ income on the demand of native chicken meat in traditional market of Manado city. Accidental sampling method was use in this study. Fifty sample of consumers was randomly chosen in Bersehati market and 50 respondents taken in Pinasungkulan market. Therefore the total respondents included in this research was 100 consumers. The study showed that both overall and partially test indicated that chicken meat pice, consumers’ income and consumers’ appetite was significantly affecting demand for native chicken by consumers on traditional market in Manado city

ANALISIS PERMINTAAN TELUR AYAM DI KABUPATEN MAGETAN

This research aims to identify and to analyze the variables which influenced the chicken egg demand in Magetan District and to know its elasticity. This research used descriptive and analytical method. The research location was chosen purposively in Magetan. By using 27 years time series data, this study applied Cobb Douglass demand functing with OLS method. The results showed that the price of chicken egg race, chicken meat price, rice price, population and income per capita have significant effect on chicken egg demand in Magetan District. Race egg price has inelastic elasticity since its value is negative (-0,280). Chicken meat price has subtitute elasticity since its value is positive (0,911). Rice price has complementary elasticity since its value is negative (-0,233). Income elasticity has a negative (-0,476) value means that chicken egg is an inferior good for Magetan District.