The Positive Predictive Value of RAS Mutations in Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Has Considerable Unexplained Variability Across Studies

Thyroid malignancies are found in 7% to 15% of all thyroid nodules. Immunohistochemical markers, including CK19, HBME-1and TROP2, have shown an effective role in identifying these malignancies. Hence, due to the lack of appropriate diagnostic tests for the identification of thyroid neoplasms, in this study, we aimed to determine the diagnostic value of these biomarkers in the identification of different types of follicular thyroid neoplasms. In this cross-sectional study, paraffin-embedded tissue blocks from the surgical resection of patients with thyroid nodules, referring to Imam Reza and Razavi Hospitals of Mashhad in 2017, were studied. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of these biomarkers for the identification of different types of follicular thyroid neoplasms were also studied. 129 patients with a mean age of 44.65±12.59 years participated in this study, of whom 101 (78.29%) were women. The most common type of follicular thyroid neoplasm was papillary carcinoma (60.47%). The highest sensitivity (94.87%) and positive predictive value (68.51%) in the detection of follicular neoplasms was observed by CK19 in papillary carcinoma. The sensitivity and positive predictive value of TROP2 in the detection of papillary neoplasms was 93.58% and 75.25%, respectively. In addition, HBME-1 had the highest specificity (72.54 %) and positive predictive value (81.57%) in identifying this neoplasm. The results of this study showed that CK19, HBME-1, and TROP2 had high diagnostic value in the detection of papillary thyroid neoplasms. Although these biomarkers had low diagnostic value in identifying follicular adenoma and carcinoma, given the high negative predictive value, they can be considered as powerful markers in identifying negative cases.

Download Full-text

THE RISK OF THYROID CANCER IN PATIENTS WITH THYROID NODULE 3 CM OR LARGER

Endocrine Practice ◽

10.4158/ep-2020-0136 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 26 (11) ◽

pp. 1286-1290

Author(s):

Edy Kornelius ◽

Shih-Chang Lo ◽

Chien-Ning Huang ◽

Yi-Sun Yang

Keyword(s):

Thyroid Cancer ◽

Positive Predictive Value ◽

Thyroid Carcinoma ◽

Thyroid Nodule ◽

Fine Needle Aspiration ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Thyroid Nodules ◽

Fine Needle Aspiration Biopsy ◽

Needle Aspiration ◽

Fine Needle

Objective: There are conflicting data on the risk of thyroid cancer in thyroid nodules 3 cm or larger, and few such studies on this issue have been conducted in Asia. This study aimed to examine the risk of thyroid cancer in patients with thyroid nodules 3 cm or larger. Methods: This was a 7-year retrospective study conducted in a tertiary referral hospital in Taiwan. All patients with a thyroid nodule measuring ≥3 cm who underwent thyroid operation with or without fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) were included. The prevalence rate of thyroid cancer, as well as the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and false-negative rate of FNAB for thyroid nodule ≥3 cm were also examined. Results: A total of 132 patients were included in this study. Thyroid cancer was detected in 19 of 132 (14.4%) thyroid nodules measuring ≥3 cm. The performance of FNAB for detecting cancer in nodules 3 cm or larger without considering other ultrasonography parameters was relatively poor with a sensitivity of 50%, but the specificity (100%), PPV (100 %), and NPV (93.4 %) were excellent. Conclusion: The risk of thyroid cancer for thyroid nodules ≥3 cm in this study was low. The PPV and NPV of FNAB were high for the detection of cancer in large nodules. The decision to perform thyroidectomy should not be solely based on nodule size and should include other factors, such as ultrasound characteristics and surgical risk. Abbreviations: ATA = American Thyroid Association; FNAB = fine-needle aspiration biopsy; mPTC = micropapillary thyroid carcinoma; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; PTC = papillary thyroid carcinoma

Download Full-text

Does the clinical assessment help in predicting malignancy in thyroid swell

Nepalese Journal of ENT Head and Neck Surgery ◽

10.3126/njenthns.v5i1.16853 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 12-13

Author(s):

Ishwor Raj Devkota ◽

S. Bhandary ◽

S. Karki

Keyword(s):

Positive Predictive Value ◽

Clinical Assessment ◽

Thyroid Surgery ◽

Predictive Value ◽

False Positive ◽

Thyroid Nodules ◽

False Negative ◽

Male Ratio ◽

The Mean ◽

One Year

Objectives: To predict malignant nodules in solitary thyroid nodules on clinical assessment.Materials and methods: A total of 48 cases with thyroid nodule were clinically assessed in detail and underwent the standard thyroid surgery at BPKIHS, Dharan during the period of one year (April 2012 to march 2013).Results: The mean age was 41.42 years with female to male ratio of 15:1. Most of the patients were euthyroid (73%). Majority of the thyroid nodules were malignant (85.4%) and only 14.6% were benign on clinical assessment. The sensitivity of clinical evaluation was 84.6%, specificity 13.6%, positive predictive value 53.6%, negative predictive value 42.8%. Percentage of the false negative, false positive and overall accuracy was 57.1%, 46.3% and 52% respectively.Conclusion: Even though the sensitivity is high, clinical assessment has low specificity. So we cannot rely on clinical assessment in predicting malignancy in the thyroid nodules.

Download Full-text

AIBx, artificial intelligence model to risk stratify thyroid nodules

10.1101/2021.02.13.21251688 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Johnson Thomas ◽

Tracy Haertling

Keyword(s):

Artificial Intelligence ◽

Positive Predictive Value ◽

Negative Predictive Value ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Thyroid Nodules ◽

Classification Systems ◽

Image Similarity ◽

Ultrasound Images ◽

Similarity Model ◽

Sensitivity Specificity

AbstractBackgroundCurrent classification systems for thyroid nodules are very subjective. Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have been used to decrease subjectivity in medical image interpretation. 1 out of 2 women over the age of 50 may have a thyroid nodule and at present the only way to exclude malignancy is through invasive procedures. Hence, there exists a need for noninvasive objective classification of thyroid nodules. Some cancers have benign appearance on ultrasonogram. Hence, we decided to create an image similarity algorithm rather than image classification algorithm.MethodsUltrasound images of thyroid nodules from patients who underwent either biopsy or thyroid surgery from February of 2012 through February of 2017 in our institution were used to create AI models. Nodules were excluded if there was no definitive diagnosis of benignity or malignancy. 482 nodules met the inclusion criteria and all available images from these nodules were used to create the AI models. Later, these AI models were used to test 103 thyroid nodules which underwent biopsy or surgery from March of 2017 through July of 2018.ResultsNegative predictive value of the image similarity model was 93.2%. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and accuracy of the model was 87.8%, 78.5%, 65.9% and 81.5% respectively.ConclusionWhen compared to published results of ACR TIRADS and ATA classification system, our image similarity model had comparable negative predictive value with better sensitivity specificity and positive predictive value. By using image similarity AI models, we can eliminate subjectivity and decrease the number of unnecessary biopsies. Using image similarity AI model, we were able to create an explainable AI model which increases physician’s confidence in the predictions.

Download Full-text

Comparative Analysis of Diagnostic Value for Shear Wave Elastography and Real-Time Elastographic Imaging for Thyroid Nodules

Journal of Medical Imaging and Health Informatics ◽

10.1166/jmihi.2019.2594 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 334-338

Author(s):

Qing Yang ◽

Wenhong Zhou ◽

Jiyu Li ◽

Guojun Wu ◽

Feng Ding ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Differential Diagnosis ◽

Positive Predictive Value ◽

Negative Predictive Value ◽

Shear Wave ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Thyroid Nodules ◽

Shear Wave Elastography ◽

Roc Curves ◽

Diagnostic Value ◽

Sensitivity Specificity

Objective: To compare the diagnostic value of shear wave elastography (SWE) and real-time elastography (RTE) in the diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules. Methods: A total of 34 patients who ever received thyroidectomy in our hospital from January 2016 to January 2018 were identified. Meanwhile, all the patients received SWE and RTE before surgery, and all the diagnoses were confirmed by pathological examinations. With respect to SWE technique, the Subject Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were drawn, in order to obtain the optimal threshold and then make differential diagnoses of benign and malignant thyroid nodules. In terms of RTE, the Rago 5 scoring method was utilized to make differential diagnoses of benign and malignant thyroid nodules. Besides, the pathological examinations after surgery could be considered as the golden standard. At last, the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of SWE and RTE were calculated, respectively. Results: A total of 51 thyroid nodules were identified, and 41 nodules were benign, 10 nodules were malignant. On the basis of ROC curves, with respect to SWE, the best threshold for differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules is 38.3 kPa. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of SWE were 72.7% (8/11), 85% (34/40), 82.4% (42/51), 68.4% (13/19), and 87.5% (35/40), respectively. And the diagnostic indicators of RTE were 81.8% (9/11), 87.5% (35/40), 84.3% (43/51), 73.7% (14/19), and 90.0% (36/40). The sensitivity of quasi-static elastography in differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules with diameter ≤1 cm was 87.5% (7/8), and the sensitivity of SWE was 50.0% (5/10). In addition, the accuracy of SWE in differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules with diameter ≥3 cm was 100% (6/6), and the accuracy of RTE for this kind of thyroid nodules was 66.7% (4/6). Conclusion: Both SWE and RTE technology have good application value in differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules. But, SWE is preferable when making diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules with diameter ≥3 cm, and RTE was superior in detecting benign and malignant thyroid nodules with diameter ≤1 cm.

Download Full-text

Evaluation of the positive predictive value of atypical thyroid cytology cases according to the Bethesda system taking histopathology as gold standard.

The Professional Medical Journal ◽

10.29309/tpmj/2019.26.11.3890 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 26 (11) ◽

pp. 2015-2020

Author(s):

Shireen Hamid ◽

Aman ur Rehman ◽

Muhammad Kashif Baig ◽

Uzma Aslam ◽

Nausheen Heena ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Positive Predictive Value ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Gold Standard ◽

Thyroid Nodules ◽

False Negative ◽

Thyroid Function Tests ◽

Thyroid Cytology ◽

Bethesda System ◽

The Bethesda System ◽

Undetermined Significance

Objectives: For the past 20 years Fine Needle Aspiration Cytology (FNAC) has evolved as the most sensitive diagnostic tool for the initial screening of patients with thyroid nodules. Unfortunately FNAC is complicated by a recognized false negative rate of approximately 5%. The clinicians could face the difficulty in the management of patient when a cytological diagnosis is atypical only. The objective of study is to evaluate the positive predictive value (PPV) of atypical thyroid cytology cases according to the Bethesda system taking histopathology as gold standard. Study Design: Cross sectional study. Setting: Department of Pathology at Shaikh Zayed Hospital, Lahore. Period: Six months i.e. from 25.11.2014 to 25.5.2015. Materials and Methods: Patients presenting with solitary thyroid nodules in the outpatient department and fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included after evaluation by thyroid function tests and thyroid scan, FNAC was performed and reported according to Bethesda system of thyroid reporting. Later on, cases underwent lobectomy, total or hemi-thyroidectomy, the tissue was received in 10% formalin solution in our pathology department and then processed, stained and examined. FNAC results of atypical cases were then compared with the definitive histological diagnosis which were considered the gold standard. The slides were examined and any differences were sought by consensus of two pathologists. Eighty cases were observed with 95% confidence level, 11% margin of error, using non-probability purposive sampling technique for sample collection. Data was analyzed by SPSS version 15 (P value <0.05). Results: The mean age of patients was 38 years with SD ± 2.16. There were 22 (28%) males and 58 (72%) females in our study. In this study, positive predictive value for Atypia of undetermined significance/ Follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS), follicular neoplasm (FN), suspicious for malignancy and positive for malignancy were 33.3%, 25%, 66.6% and 100% respectively. Overall PPV of atypical cytology was 35.71%. Overall accuracy of FNAC was 86.30%, 87.50% sensitivity and 86.15% specificity, PPV value 43.75% and negative predictive value was 98.25%. Conclusion: Results showed that Bethesda system of reporting is helpful for the management of patients who falls in to undetermined categories as it categorically divide atypical cytology cases in to three definite categories AUS, FN and suspicious for malignancy and these categories have different risks of malignancy. Thus can help to determine a better patient outcome due to proper clinical management of thyroid swellings.

Download Full-text

Molecular Testing of Thyroid Nodules: A Review of Current Available Tests for Fine-Needle Aspiration Specimens

Archives of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine ◽

10.5858/arpa.2016-0100-ra ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 140 (12) ◽

pp. 1338-1344 ◽

Cited By ~ 60

Author(s):

Ming Zhang ◽

Oscar Lin

Keyword(s):

Positive Predictive Value ◽

Fine Needle Aspiration ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Thyroid Nodules ◽

Needle Aspiration ◽

Genetic Alterations ◽

Molecular Techniques ◽

Molecular Testing ◽

Fine Needle ◽

Rule Out

Context.— Fine-needle aspiration of thyroid nodules is a reliable diagnostic method to determine the nature of thyroid nodules. Nonetheless, indeterminate cytology diagnoses remain a diagnostic challenge. The development of multiplex molecular techniques and the identification of genetic alterations associated with different follicular cell–derived cancers in the thyroid have led to the introduction of several commercially available tests. Objective.— To summarize the most common commercially available molecular testing in thyroid cancer, focusing on the technical features and test performance validation. Data Sources.— Peer-reviewed original articles, review articles, and published conference abstracts were reviewed to analyze the advantages and limitations of the most common tests used in the evaluation of thyroid needle aspirations. Conclusions.— The most common tests available include the Afirma Gene Expression Classifier, ThyGenX, and ThyroSeq. The excellent negative predictive value (NPV) of the Afirma test allows it to be used as a “rule out” test. ThyGenX analyzes a panel of DNA mutations and RNA translocation fusion markers to assess the risk of malignancy with good NPV and positive predictive value. ThyroSeq is a next-generation sequencing–based gene mutation and fusion test that has been reported to have the best NPV and positive predictive value combined, suggesting that it can be used as a “rule in” and “rule out” test. Molecular testing of cytology specimens from thyroid nodules has the potential to play a major role in the evaluation of indeterminate thyroid lesions.

Download Full-text

Qualitative analysis of contrast-enhanced ultrasound in the diagnosis of small, TR3–5 benign and malignant thyroid nodules measuring ≤1 cm

British Journal of Radiology ◽

10.1259/bjr.20190923 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 93 (1111) ◽

pp. 20190923

Author(s):

Xin Li ◽

Feng Gao ◽

Fan Li ◽

Xiao-xia Han ◽

Si-hui Shao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Positive Predictive Value ◽

Qualitative Analysis ◽

Negative Predictive Value ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Diagnostic Performance ◽

Thyroid Nodules ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Contrast Enhanced Ultrasound ◽

Contrast Enhanced ◽

Sensitivity Specificity

Objective: To evaluate the performance of contrast-enhanced ultrasound in the diagnosis of small, solid, TR3–5 benign and malignant thyroid nodules (≤1 cm). Methods: From January 2016 to March 2018, 185 thyroid nodules from 154 patients who underwent contrast enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and fine-needle aspiration or thyroidectomy in Shanghai General Hospital were included. The χ2 test was used to compare the CEUS characteristics of benign and malignant thyroid nodules, and the CEUS features of malignant nodules assigned scores. The total score of the CEUS features and the scores of the above nodules were evaluated according to the latest 2017 version of the Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS). The diagnostic performance of the two were compared based on the receiver operating characteristic curves generated for benign and malignant thyroid nodules. Results: The degree, enhancement patterns, boundary, shape, and homogeneity of enhancement in thyroid small solid nodules were significantly different (p＜0.05). No significant differences were seen between benign and malignant thyroid nodules regarding completeness of enhancement and size of enhanced lesions (p＞0.05). The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the TI-RADS classification TR5 in diagnosis of malignant nodules were 90.10%, 55.95%, 74.59%, 72.22%, and 82.46%, respectively (area under the curve [AUC]=0.738; 95% confidence interval[CI], 0.663–0.813). The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the total score of CEUS qualitative analysis indicators were 86.13%, 89.29%, 87.57%, 90.63%, and 84.27% respectively (AUC = 0.916; 95% CI, 0.871–0.961). Conclusion: CEUS qualitative analysis is superior to TI-RADS in evaluating the diagnostic performance of small, solid thyroid nodules. Qualitative analysis of CEUS has a significantly higher specificity for diagnosis of malignant thyroid nodules than TI-RADS. Advances in knowledge: The 2017 version of TI-RADS has recently suggested the malignant stratification of thyroid nodules by ultrasound. In this paper we applied this system and CEUS to evaluate 185 nodules and compare the results with pathological findings to access the diagnostic performance.

Download Full-text