Global Spillovers in a Low Interest Rate Environment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushant Acharya ◽  
Paolo Pesenti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
International Spillovers ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Environment

Global policy spillovers can be defined as the effect of policy changes in one country on economic outcomes in other countries. The literature has mainly focused on monetary policy interdependencies and has identified three channels through which policy spillovers can materialize. The first is the expenditure-shifting channel—a monetary expansion in one country depreciates its currency, making its goods cheaper relative to those in other countries and shifting global demand toward domestic tradable goods. The second is the expenditure-changing channel—expansionary monetary policy in one country raises both domestic and foreign expenditure. The third is the financial spillovers channel—expansionary monetary policy in one country eases financial conditions in other economies. The literature generally finds that the net transmission effect is positive but small. However, estimated spillovers vary widely across countries and over time. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, the policy debate has devoted special attention to the possibility that the magnitude and sign of international spillovers might have changed in an environment of low interest rates worldwide, as the expenditure-shifting channel becomes more relevant when the effective lower bound reduces the effectiveness of conventional monetary policies.

scholarly journals Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (91) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoyun Mao ◽  
Shu-Chun Susan Yang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Environment

The theoretical literature generally finds that government spending multipliers are bigger than unity in a low interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, we show that such big multipliers can decrease when 1) an initial debt-to-GDP ratio is higher, 2) tax burden is higher, 3) debt maturity is longer, and 4) monetary policy is more responsive to inflation. When monetary and fiscal policy regimes can switch, policy uncertainty also reduces spending multipliers. In particular, when higher inflation induces a rising probability to switch to a regime in which monetary policy actively controls inflation and fiscal policy raises future taxes to stabilize government debt, the multipliers can fall much below unity, especially with an initial high debt ratio. Our findings help reconcile the mixed empirical evidence on government spending effects with low interest rates.

Auswirkungen der anhaltenden Niedrigzinsen auf das Versicherungswesen

2015 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolf Ketzler ◽  
Peter Schwark
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
Life Insurers ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Environment

AbstractThe very accommodative monetary policy of the ECB and the related extremely low interest rates are involved with major challenges for the German insurance sector, in particular for life insurers. As long-term investors, insurers are not only affected in their capital investment strategy, but also by different households’ retirement saving patterns in response to the low interest rate environment. Several significant steps have already been taken in order to ensure the long-term viability of life insurance. These include changes in the product portfolio as well as new approaches in the investment strategy. In addition, new regulatory requirements have been established to strengthen the risk bearing capacity of life insurers. Given the substantial risks of low interest rates, from an economic point of view the question concerning an appropriate exit from the low interest rate environment needs more attention in the public debate. In this context, further progress regarding the economic reform policies in the euro zone is still necessary as a condition for the ECB to normalize its monetary policy as soon as possible.

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer – the case of monetary policy and financial imbalances

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska ◽  
Łukasz Kurowski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Main Tool ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract The global financial crisis (GFC) has shown that monetary policy focused on a stable price level may negatively affect the stability of the financial system. Therefore, achieving price and financial stability using interest rates as the main tool is difficult. In this paper, we analyse how often monetary policy strengthened imbalances in the financial system in 20 countries from 1999Q1 to 2020Q2. To this end, we compare monetary policy stance with a novel financial imbalance index (FII). We find that monetary policy is material in aggravating financial imbalances mostly in Eurozone countries. We attribute this finding to the ECB’s “too loose, too long” monetary policy and to difficulties with applying single monetary policies in countries with different economic conditions and in different phases of credit and financial cycles. Our results point to a need for a proactive macroprudential policy in the environment of low interest rates.

scholarly journals Spillovers of US Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies to Russian Financial Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigeki Ono
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

This paper investigates the spillovers of US conventional and unconventional monetary policies to Russian financial markets using VAR-X models. Impulse responses to an exogenous Federal Funds rate shock are assessed for all the endogenous variables. The empirical results show that both conventional and unconventional tightening monetary policy shocks decrease stock prices whereas an easing monetary policy shock does not increase stock prices. Moreover, the results suggest that an unconventional tightening monetary policy shock increases Russian interest rates and decreases oil prices, implying reduced liquidity in international financial markets.

scholarly journals Loose Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment of Manufacturing Firms in the Czech Republic

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-385
Author(s):  
Veronika Kajurová ◽  
Dagmar Linnertová
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Effect

Abstract The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effects of loose monetary policy on corporate investment of manufacturing firms in the Czech Republic during the period between 2006 and 2015. The main focus of the paper is on the effect of low interest rates on investment activity of Czech firms; additionally, the effects of interactions between interest rate and other firm-specific variables are investigated. The results indicate that corporate investment is positively associated with firm size, investment opportunities, and long term debt. Also, a negative effect of the cash position is found. Further, the findings show that monetary policy is a significant determinant of firm investment activity: when the monetary policy is loose, investment is positively affected. Furthermore, differences in the determinants of investment between highly and low leveraged firms were revealed.

scholarly journals Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (236) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Adrian ◽  
Fernando Duarte ◽  
Nellie Liang ◽  
Pawel Zabczyk
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Endogenous Risk ◽  
Nk Model ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Financial Conditions

We extend the New Keynesian (NK) model to include endogenous risk. Lower interest rates not only shift consumption intertemporally but also conditional output risk via their impact on risk-taking, giving rise to a vulnerability channel of monetary policy. The model fits the conditional output gap distribution and can account for medium-term increases in downside risks when financial conditions are loose. The policy prescriptions are very different from those in the standard NK model: monetary policy that focuses purely on inflation and output-gap stabilization can lead to instability. Macroprudential measures can mitigate the intertemporal risk-return tradeoff created by the vulnerability channel.

scholarly journals Causes of The Outbreak of the Eurozone Crises: The Role of the Usa and the European Central Bank Monetary Policy

e-Finanse ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Natalia Białek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
European Central ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This paper argues that the loose monetary policy of two of the world’s most important financial institutions-the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank-were ultimately responsible for the outburst of global financial crisis of 2008-09. Unusually low interest rates in 2001- 05 compelled investors to engage in high risk endeavors. It also encouraged some governments to finance excessive domestic consumption with foreign loans. Emerging financial bubbles burst first in mortgage markets in the U.S. and subsequently spread to other countries. The paper also reviews other causes of the crisis as discussed in literature. Some of them relate directly to weaknesses inherent in the institutional design of the European Monetary Union (EMU) while others are unique to members of the EMU. It is rather striking that recommended remedies tend not to take into account the policies of the European Central Bank.

scholarly journals Low interest rates and executive risk-taking incentives: Evidence from the United States

2020 ◽  
pp. 234094442092771
Author(s):  
Paula Castro ◽  
Maria T Tascon ◽  
Francisco J Castaño ◽  
Borja Amor-Tapia
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
The United States ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Institutional Shareholders

This article contributes to the literature by indicating how certain monetary policies impact the compensation incentives of US managers to adopt riskier business policies. Specifically, based on the agency problems between shareholders and managers and between shareholders and creditors, a research framework is developed to identify the influence of low interest rates on managers’ risk-taking incentives proxied by the sensitivity of executive compensation to stock return volatility (Vega). We examine 1,293 firms in the United States between 2000 and 2016, and the results indicate that low interest rates increase the managers’ short-term risk-taking incentives and that those incentives contribute to the risk effectively taken by the firm. Our results are robust to the use of alternative monetary proxies and to the presence of passive versus active institutional shareholders. JEL CLASSIFICATION E41; E43; E51; M12; M52

Low interest rate environment: inventory management in Finland and Baltic states

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli-Pekka Hilmola ◽  
Weidong Li ◽  
Andres Tolli
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Inventory Management ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Environment

PurposeFor decades, it was emphasized that manufacturing and trading companies should aim to be lean with very small inventories. However, in the recent decade, time-significant change has taken place as nearly all of the “old west” countries have now low interest rates. Holding inventories have been beneficial for the sake of customer service and for achieving savings in transportation and fixed ordering costs.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, inventory management change is examined in publicly traded manufacturing and trade companies of Finland and three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) during the years 2010–2018.FindingsInventory efficiency has been leveled off or falling in these countries and mostly declining development has concerned small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It is also found that inventory efficiency is in general lower in SMEs than in larger companies. Two companies sustaining in inventory efficiency are used as an example that lean has still significance, and higher inventories as well as lower inventory efficiency should not be the objective. Two companies show exemplary financial performance as well as shareholder value creation.Research limitations/implicationsWork concerns only four smaller countries, and this limits its generalization power. Research is one illustration what happens to private sector companies under low interest rate policies.Practical implicationsContinuous improvement of inventory efficiency becomes questionable in the light of current research and the low interest rate environment.Originality/valueThis is one of the seminal studies from inventory efficiency as the global financial crisis taken place in 2008–2009 and there is the implementation of low interest rates.

Central bank action will drive global equity markets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

Significance This volatility is driven by expectations of further monetary stimulus in response to a slowing economy. Despite persistent concerns about the fallout from the anticipated tightening in US monetary policy and many country-specific risks, such as the standoff between Greece and its creditors, equity market sentiment remains supported by accommodative monetary policies worldwide and expectations of the US monetary policy tightening being gradual. Impacts Market volatility could increase further, as better-than-expected economic data in the euro-area vies with weaker-than-anticipated US data. Decoupling of surging equity prices and weak economic fundamentals threatens the rally's sustainability, increasing scope for volatility. This decoupling is most pronounced in China, where weak economic data prompt buying of equities in anticipation of stimulus measures. The greatest risk in equity markets is uncertainty surrounding US interest rates and their impact on emerging markets.

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