8. Generalization

Author(s):  
Tim Lenton

This VSI has introduced how one habitable planet—the Earth—can be studied as a system. However, in just the past few years, scientists have made the remarkable discovery that there are potentially habitable planets—exoplanets—orbiting other stars. Just as humanity’s first view of the Earth from space changed how we saw and studied our home planet, our first ‘view’ of an Earth-like planet around another star will surely change our perspective again. ‘Generalization’ explores how our understanding of the Earth system can be generalized into a science of habitable worlds in general.

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (33) ◽  
pp. 8252-8259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Will Steffen ◽  
Johan Rockström ◽  
Katherine Richardson ◽  
Timothy M. Lenton ◽  
Carl Folke ◽  
...  

We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anni Zhao ◽  
Chris Brierley

<p>Experiment outputs are now available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project’s 6<sup>th</sup> phase (CMIP6) and the past climate experiments defined in the Model Intercomparison Project’s 4<sup>th</sup> phase (PMIP4). All of this output is freely available from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Yet there are overheads in analysing this resource that may prove complicated or prohibitive. Here we document the steps taken by ourselves to produce ensemble analyses covering past and future simulations. We outline the strategy used to curate, adjust the monthly calendar aggregation and process the information downloaded from the ESGF. The results of these steps were used to perform analysis for several of the initial publications arising from PMIP4. We provide post-processed fields for each simulation, such as climatologies and common measures of variability. Example scripts used to visualise and analyse these fields is provided for several important case studies.</p>


Author(s):  
Carole L. Crumley

Recent, widely recognized changes in the Earth system are, in effect, changes in the coupled human–environment system. We have entered the Anthropocene, when human activity—along with solar forcing, volcanic activity, precession, and the like—must be considered a component (a ‘driver’) of global environmental change (Crutzen and Stoermer 2000; Levin 1998). The dynamic non-linear system in which we live is not in equilibrium and does not act in a predictable manner (see Fairhead, chapter 16 this volume for further discussion of non-equilibrium ecology). If humankind is to continue to thrive, it is of utmost importance that we identify the ideas and practices that nurture the planet as well as our species. Our best laboratory for this is the past, where long-, medium-, and short-term variables can be identified and their roles evaluated. Perhaps the past is our only laboratory: experimentation requires time we no longer have. Thus the integration of our understanding of human history with that of the Earth system is a timely and urgent task. Archaeologists bring two particularly useful sets of skills to this enterprise: how to collaborate, and how to learn from the past. Archaeology enjoys a long tradition of collaboration with colleagues in both the biophysical sciences and in the humanities to investigate human activity in all planetary environments. Archaeologists work alongside one another in the field, live together in difficult conditions, welcome collaboration with colleagues in other disciplines—and listen to them carefully—and tell compelling stories to an interested public. All are rare skills and precious opportunities. Until recently few practitioners of biophysical, social science, and humanities disciplines had experience in cross-disciplinary collaboration. Many scholars who should be deeply engaged in collaboration to avert disaster (for example, specialists in tropical medicine with their counterparts in land use change) still speak different professional ‘languages’ and have very different traditions of producing information. C. P. Snow, in The Two Cultures (1993 [1959]), was among the first to warn that the very structure of academia was leading to this serious, if unintended, outcome.


2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 218-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Whitney J Autin

Anthropocene has developed a varied set of connotations among scientific and non-scientific advocates. As a result, multiple dichotomies of the Anthropocene exist within various scholarly disciplines. The Anthropocene allows people to reinforce and perpetuate preferred views about the implications of human interaction with the Earth System as our management of the environment is called into question. Scientific dichotomies arise from opinions about the need for formal or informal definition and the recognition of a modern versus historical onset of the Anthropocene. Philosophical dichotomies center around good versus dystopian outcomes of Anthropocene and whether or not humanity is part of what historically has been called nature. Political dichotomies insert Anthropocene into classic conservative versus liberal arguments. Artistic dichotomies tend to evaluate the effects of technology on modernism by embracing a nostalgia for the past or projecting an apocalyptic future. Multiple dichotomies drive conversation towards confusion as individuals argue preferred versions of an Anthropocene concept. Philosophical and political perspectives are affecting scientific views of proposed geological time markers for the start of the Anthropocene as conceptual ideologies appear to compete with tangible stratigraphic attributes. Formal definition of the Anthropocene has potential to inhibit popular usage and further confuse an already confused media. Informal stratigraphic usage by scientists and an open-ended view among non-scientific proponents may be the best approach to formulate a robust Anthropocene message. Both humanity and the Earth System benefit from a dynamic tag line that enhances environmental awareness and provides opportunity to modify our habits of resource overuse and ecosystem neglect. Concepts and imagery offered in the form of modern literature and art have the greatest prospect of affecting popular culture perspectives of the Anthropocene’s role in environmental debate.


Dark Skies ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 65-104
Author(s):  
Daniel Deudney

Humans have always attributed enormous importance to occurrences in the heavens. Over the past several centuries modern astronomy has revealed a cosmos of staggering size, filled with trillions of worlds. Its vacuum, weightlessness, lethal radiations, and fantastic speeds make space harshly inhospitable to human life. To access orbital space requires velocities some thirty-four times as fast as jet aircraft, climbing out of steep gravity wells. Of the many bodies mapped by science in this solar system, asteroids are most practically important because they sometimes collide with great violence, profoundly shaping Earth’s deep history. As knowledge of the cosmos has grown, anticipations of nearby intelligent life have dramatically shrunk. The Space Age has also witnessed a far-reaching revolution in understanding the Earth System. Marked by complexity, chaos, and emergence, life on Earth is incompletely understood and inventoried and much less subject to human control than previously assumed, reducing the feasibility of expansionist visions.


1999 ◽  
Vol 159 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 305-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried Franck ◽  
Konrad Kossacki ◽  
Christine Bounama

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Bauer ◽  
Martin Claussen ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Anja Huenerbein

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 937-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
John S. Dryzek

The unusually stable Earth system of the Holocene epoch of the past 10,000 years, in which human civilization arose, is yielding to a more dynamic and unstable Anthropocene epoch driven by human practices. The consequences for key institutions, such as states, markets and global governance, are profound. Path dependency in institutions complicit in destabilizing the Earth system constrains response to this emerging epoch. Institutional analysis highlights reflexivity as the antidote to problematic path dependency. A more ecological discourse stresses resilience, foresight and state shifts in the Earth system. Ecosystemic reflexivity can be located as the first virtue of political institutions in the Anthropocene. Undermining all normative institutional models, this analysis enables re-thinking of political institutions in dynamic social-ecological terms.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0246662 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen D. Morrison ◽  
Emily Hammer ◽  
Oliver Boles ◽  
Marco Madella ◽  
Nicola Whitehouse ◽  
...  

In the 12,000 years preceding the Industrial Revolution, human activities led to significant changes in land cover, plant and animal distributions, surface hydrology, and biochemical cycles. Earth system models suggest that this anthropogenic land cover change influenced regional and global climate. However, the representation of past land use in earth system models is currently oversimplified. As a result, there are large uncertainties in the current understanding of the past and current state of the earth system. In order to improve representation of the variety and scale of impacts that past land use had on the earth system, a global effort is underway to aggregate and synthesize archaeological and historical evidence of land use systems. Here we present a simple, hierarchical classification of land use systems designed to be used with archaeological and historical data at a global scale and a schema of codes that identify land use practices common to a range of systems, both implemented in a geospatial database. The classification scheme and database resulted from an extensive process of consultation with researchers worldwide. Our scheme is designed to deliver consistent, empirically robust data for the improvement of land use models, while simultaneously allowing for a comparative, detailed mapping of land use relevant to the needs of historical scholars. To illustrate the benefits of the classification scheme and methods for mapping historical land use, we apply it to Mesopotamia and Arabia at 6 kya (c. 4000 BCE). The scheme will be used to describe land use by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k working group, an international project comprised of archaeologists, historians, geographers, paleoecologists, and modelers. Beyond this, the scheme has a wide utility for creating a common language between research and policy communities, linking archaeologists with climate modelers, biodiversity conservation workers and initiatives.


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