Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections

Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.

Evidence for a Northern Hemispheric trigger of the 100,000-y glacial cyclicity

The causes of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, the shift from ∼41-ky to 100-ky interglacial–glacial cycles and more intense ice ages, remain intensely debated, as this fundamental change occurred between ∼1,250 and 650 ka without substantial changes in astronomical climate forcings. Recent studies disagree about the relative importance of events and processes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as whether the shift occurred gradually over several interglacial–glacial cycles or abruptly at ∼900 ka. We address these issues using a north-to-south reconstruction of the Atlantic arm of the global meridional overturning ocean circulation, a primary means for distributing heat around the globe, using neodymium (Nd) isotopes. Results reveal a period of intense erosion affecting the cratonic shields surrounding the North Atlantic between Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 27 and 25 (∼980 and 950 ka), reflected by unusually low Nd isotope ratios in deep North Atlantic seawater. This episode preceded a major ocean circulation weakening between MIS 25 and 21 (950 and 860 ka) that coincided with the first ∼100-ky-long interglacial–glacial onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at around 2.4 to 2.8 Ma. The data point to a Northern Hemisphere–sourced initiation for the transition, possibly induced through regolith loss and increased exposure of the crystalline bedrock, which would lead to increased friction, enabling larger ice sheets that are characteristic of the 100-ky interglacial–glacial cycles.

Effect of rock uplift and Milankovitch timescale variations in precipitation and vegetation cover on catchment erosion rates

Catchment erosion and sedimentation are influenced by variations in the rates of rock uplift (tectonics) and periodic fluctuations in climate and vegetation cover. This study focuses on quantifying the effects of changing climate and vegetation on erosion and sedimentation over distinct climate–vegetation settings by applying the Landlab–SPACE landscape evolution model. As catchment evolution is subjected to tectonic and climate forcings at millennial to million-year timescales, the simulations are performed for different tectonic scenarios and periodicities in climate–vegetation change. We present a series of generalized experiments that explore the sensitivity of catchment hillslope and fluvial erosion as well as sedimentation for different rock uplift rates (0.05, 0.1, 0.2 mm a−1) and Milankovitch climate periodicities (23, 41, and 100 kyr). Model inputs were parameterized for two different climate and vegetation conditions at two sites in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera at ∼26∘ S (arid and sparsely vegetated) and ∼33∘ S (Mediterranean). For each setting, steady-state topographies were produced for each uplift rate before introducing periodic variations in precipitation and vegetation cover. Following this, the sensitivity of these landscapes was analyzed for 3 Myr in a transient state. Results suggest that regardless of the uplift rate, transients in precipitation and vegetation cover resulted in transients in erosion rates in the direction of change in precipitation and vegetation. The transients in sedimentation were observed to be in the opposite direction of change in the precipitation and vegetation cover, with phase lags of ∼1.5–2.5 kyr. These phase lags can be attributed to the changes in plant functional type (PFT) distribution induced by the changes in climate and the regolith production rate. These effects are most pronounced over longer-period changes (100 kyr) and higher rock uplift rates (0.2 mm yr−1). This holds true for both the vegetation and climate settings considered. Furthermore, transient changes in catchment erosion due to varying vegetation and precipitation were between ∼35 % and 110 % of the background (rock uplift) rate and would be measurable with commonly used techniques (e.g., sediment flux histories, cosmogenic nuclides). Taken together, we find that vegetation-dependent erosion and sedimentation are influenced by Milankovitch timescale changes in climate but that these transient changes are superimposed upon tectonically driven rates of rock uplift.

Effect of rock uplift and Milankovitch timescale variations in precipitation and vegetation cover on catchment erosion rates

Catchment erosion and sedimentation are influenced by variations in the rates of rock uplift (tectonics), and periodic fluctuations in climate and vegetation cover. In this study we applied the Landlab-SPACE landscape evolution modelling approach. This study focuses on quantifying the effects changing climate and vegetation on erosion and sedimentation over distinct climate-vegetation settings. As catchment evolution is subjected to tectonic and climate forcings at millennial to million-year time-scales, the simulations are performed over different tectonic scenarios and periodicities of climate-vegetation change. We present a series of generalized experiments that explore the sensitivity of catchment hillslope and fluvial erosion and sedimentation for different rock uplift rates (0.05 mm a−1, 0.1 mm a−1, 0.2 mm a−1) and Milankovitch climate periodicities (23 kyr, 41 kyr and 100 kyr). Model inputs were parameterized for two different climate and vegetation conditions at two sites in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera at ~26° S (arid and sparsely vegetated) and ~33° S (mediterranean). For each setting, steady state topographies were produced for each uplift rate before introducing periodic variations in precipitation and vegetation cover. Following this, the sensitivity of these landscapes was analysed for 3 Myr in a transient state. Results suggest that regardless of the uplift rate, transients in precipitation and vegetation cover resulted in transients in erosion rates in the direction of change in precipitation and vegetation. While the transients in sedimentation were observed to be in the opposite direction of change in the precipitation and vegetation cover, with phase lags of ~1.5–2.5 kyr. These phase lags can be attributed to the changes in plant functional type (PFT) distribution induced by the changes in climatic conditions, which is beyond the scope of this study. These effects being most pronounced over longer period changes (100 kyr) and higher rock uplift rates (0.2 mm yr−1). This holds true for both vegetation and climate settings. Furthermore, transient changes in catchment erosion due to varying vegetation and precipitation were between ~35 %–110 % of the background (rock uplift) rate and are measureable with some techniques (e.g. sediment flux histories, cosmogenic nuclides). Taken together, we find that vegetation-dependent erosion and sedimentation are influenced by Milankovitch timescale changes in climate, but that these transient changes are superimposed upon tectonically driven rates of rock uplift.

Environmental flow envelopes: quantifying ecosystem-threatening flow alterations

<p>The benefits of harnessing rivers into human use should not come with a disproportionate expense on the Earth system. Especially, freshwater ecosystems suffer greatly from direct and indirect human impacts, such as excessive water withdrawals and climate change, which are expected to only increase in the near future. Here, we aim for quantifying the extent and degree of considerable flow alterations that threaten the well-being of freshwater ecosystems, across the world.</p><p>At the global scale, the ecological status of river systems is often assessed using global hydrological models (GHMs) and hydrological environmental flow (EF) methods. These suffer from substantial uncertainties: 1) the GHMs parameterised with variable climate forcings may give highly dispersed discharge estimates and 2) individual hydrological EF methods capture ecosystem water needs poorly. We tackle these sources of uncertainty by introducing a novel methodology: environmental flow envelopes (EFEs). The EFE is an envelope of safe discharge variability between a lower and an upper bound, defined at the sub-basin scale in monthly time resolution. It is based on pre-industrial (1801-1860) discharge and a large ensemble of EF methods, GHMs, and climate forcings, using ISI-MIP2b data. Using the EFE, we can simultaneously assess the frequency and severity of ecosystem-threatening flow alterations.</p><p>Comparing post-industrial (1976-2005) discharge to the EFEs, discharge in 32.7% of the total 3860 sub-basins, covering 28.4% of the global landmass, violates the EFE during more than 10% of all months across four GHMs. These violations are considered as severe threats to freshwater ecosystems. The most impacted regions include areas with high anthropogenic pressure, such as the Middle East, India, Eastern Asia, and Middle America. The violations clearly concentrate on the EFE lower bound during low or intermediate flow seasons. Discharge in 61.4% of sub-basins violates the EFE during more than 10% of low flow season months, average violation being 47.5% below the safe limit denoted by EFE lower bound. Indications of significantly increased flows by violations of the EFE upper bound are fewer and further apart, as well as lower bound violations during high flow season.</p><p>Although fractional discharge allocations alone cannot fully capture the ecosystem water needs, this study is a step towards less uncertainty in global EF assessments. The introduced method provides a novel, globally robust way of estimating ecosystem water needs at the sub-basin scale. The results of this study underline the importance of the low flow season, during which EFE violations are the most prevalent. While only preliminary evidence of significantly increased flows emerges in relatively few areas, the EFE upper bound would benefit from further research. The EFE methodology can be used for exploring macro-regional areas where anthropogenic flow alteration threatens freshwater ecosystems the most. However, case-specific studies incorporating factors beyond quantitative flow only are required for practical implications.</p>

Computing a Groundwater Sustainability Index for coastal aquifers in Portugal and California to foster sustainable groundwater management

<p>Sustainability Indices can be useful to quantify objective groundwater management strategy outcomes, particularly across regional scales and when local groundwater budget data is not readily available. Previous studies have used performance indicators to evaluate surface water systems, and their application to groundwater is expanding to address water availability concerns. Here, a groundwater sustainability index (GSI) is computed across coastal aquifer systems in Portugal and California using reliability (REL), resilience (RES), and vulnerability (VUL) performance indicators. Aquifers in these Mediterranean climate zones are susceptible to inter-annual and seasonal water storage fluctuations linked to climate forcings and drought. Piezometric levels in the selected aquifers in Portugal (Leirosa-Monte Real and Campina de Faro) and California (Napa and Santa Barbara), spanning a period from 1989 to 2019, are analyzed using a point-wise approach to provide an index-per-piezometer. The computation exposes that the resilience indicator is heavily influential in setting an aquifer system's overall sustainability classification. However, the most significant output from the GSI is a clear indication of how well (or poor) a specific aquifer can withstand drought conditions that occur in both California and Portugal throughout the 30-year span of this study. Lastly, comparing indices with different priorities (performance indicators), such as sustainability and exploitive use (including the Water Framework Directive’s River Basin Management Plan’s Water Exploitation Index (WEI+)) can help identify aquifer systems that may need an immediate policy, conservation, or mitigation interventions, and others that may be self-sustaining for a longer period of time. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL.</p>

Impact of initialization techniques on the predictive skill of Arctic-Atlantic region in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM)

<p>Society's need for operational climate forecast on seasonal to decadal time scales means an increased effort to improve climate prediction models. One way to address this issue is to investigate how initialization techniques affect the predictive skill in these systems.</p><p>Considering this, three implementations and two versions of the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) are analyzed concerning the effects of different initialization methods on the predictive skill in the Arctic-Atlantic region from interannual to decadal time scales. We consider aspects as data assimilation (DA) in the surface vs subsurface, DA update of sea-ice, CMIP5 vs CMIP6 NorCPM versions, ensemble size, and initialization frequency. Besides that, a comparison between the predictive skill in the Norwegian Sea (NS) and the Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) is performed to identify characteristics that can help to improve predictions in these areas.</p><p>The additional assimilation of subsurface data increases the predictive skill in the SPNA at all lead times (1-10 years). In contrast, in the NS the skill is increased just at medium lead times (4-7 years). The strongly coupled DA, updating both ocean and sea ice, increases the predictive skill in the SPNA at all lead times, whereas the weakly coupled DA method, only updating ocean, results in higher skill in the NS at shorter (1-3 years) and medium (4-7 years) lead times. With respect to the NorCPM versions, the CMIP5 versions show higher predictive skill in both areas than the CMIP6 ones. In this comparison, besides the differences in the climate forcings, the new NorCPM version contributing to CMIP6 has minor code modifications, addition of interactive aerosol-cloud schemes, and an ocean component with biogeochemistry. Because of that, it is not possible to isolate just the effect of the climate forcings on the skill. Regarding the ensemble size and initialization frequency, NorCPM had a non-linear response; the skill varies with the area, variable, and lead times.</p><p>Considering the results, no single version was superior to the others with respect to the skill. In the SPNA, the CMIP5 version, assimilating both surface and subsurface observations, and using strongly coupled DA, shows the highest skill. In the NS, we find the similar except that the highest skill is shown for the weakly coupled DA. Further investigation about technical aspects and the representation of dynamical process are necessary to better understand why the sea ice updating in the strongly coupled method is not beneficial to the NS.</p>

The contribution of different climate forcings on the global glacier climatic mass balance over the last millennium

<p>The mass loss of glaciers and ice caps is one of the major contributors to sea-level rise over the past 120 years. Different climate forcings, both natural and anthropogenic, have an influence on the climate and therefore on glacier mass balance. Glaciers have a slow and delayed response to climate change, and at any point in time, their properties are therefore also a result of past climate changes. In this context, we present global glacier simulations over the last millennium. For these simulations, the Open Global Glacier Model was forced with the fully forced, single forced and control simulations of the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble. These simulations show how different climate forcings, i.e., volcanic, greenhouse gasses, solar, orbital, land use & land cover and ozone-aerosol, impact the climatic mass balance, both individually and combined. These influences are then analyzed over time and regionally. In addition to addressing the role of the different forcings, we present the contribution of natural vs anthropogenic forcings on glacier mass balance over the last millennium.</p>