The Successes and Failures of Economic Reform in Nigeria’s Post-Military Political Settlement

2019 ◽  
Vol 119 (474) ◽  
pp. 1-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zainab Usman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Transition ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Developmental State ◽  
Horizontal Distribution ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
Political Settlement

ABSTRACT There are limitations in the explanatory power of prevailing theories on the political economy of Africa’s growth without industrialization that emphasize the resource-curse, ethnicity, neopatrimonialism, and the developmental state. This article uses a political settlements approach to explain the institutional underpinnings of Nigeria’s economic transition. It shows how external constraints on ruling elites interact with the distribution of power and institutions to stimulate episodic reforms in an ‘intermediate’ Nigerian state. Rather than a ‘developmental’ state presiding over industrial upgrading or a ‘predatory’ state operating solely on neopatrimonial basis, this intermediate state presides over selective reforms and bursts of economic growth and diversification. Thus, specific constraints in Nigeria’s post-military political settlement from 1999 generated the initial impetus for successful telecoms liberalization, while inhibiting growth in the oil sector. This article contributes to advancing the political settlements framework in applying it to resource-rich countries, by outlining the four dimensions of the distribution of power and the constraints for institutional persistence or change, and their varying economic implications. It also reclaims the concept of ‘elite bargains’ as a defining feature of the horizontal distribution of power and demonstrates its centrality to the durability or fragility of institutions, especially at critical junctures of resource booms and busts.

Profitable inefficiency: the politics of port infrastructure in Mombasa, Kenya

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-109
Author(s):  
Hugh Lamarque
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Interaction ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Physical Infrastructure ◽  
Key Sites ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
The One ◽  
Port Infrastructure ◽  
Dry Ports ◽  
Political Settlement

AbstractThis article examines the distribution of power among public, private and criminal interests invested in Mombasa port. It approaches Kenya as a gatekeeper state, in which national elites compete to control the country's points of interaction with the rest of the world. Mombasa's controversial private dry ports are used to highlight (1) how the opportunity to profit from inefficiencies in container storage has been distributed among the political elite, and (2) how the development of the country's principal seaport not only reflects Kenya's underlying political settlements, but is one of the key sites in which those settlements are tested and reshaped. The case exposes a dynamic interaction between Kenya's shifting political settlement on the one hand, and the gate itself – Mombasa port's physical infrastructure and regulations – on the other.

Three Decades of Bangladeshi Politics (1990-2019): The Emergence and Collapse of the Political Settlements

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Ali Riaz
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Social Forces ◽  
The Past ◽  
History Of ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
Dominant Coalition ◽  
Democratic Transformation ◽  
Political Settlement

This paper explores the tumultuous political history of Bangladesh since it embarked on democratization process in 1991 after two decades of civilian and military authoritarianism, using the political settlement framework. Political settlement, in this paper is understood as, an agreement among elites and other social forces regarding ‘distribution of benefits supported by its institutions consistent with the distribution of power in the society’ (Khan, 2010). At the political level the arrangement is expected to ensure that the system would not unravel by conflict and violence. In the past decades, the country not only experienced repeated episodes of violence but also hopes of a democratic transformation have faded. Bangladesh has moved towards a non-inclusive political system. The paper argues that the period in question is marked by the emergence and collapse of a political settlement among political elites. It explores the nature and scope of the political settlement that emerged in the 1980s and collapsed by 2010, and demonstrates that by 2014, an exclusionary authoritarian settlement has emerged characterized by a lack of inclusivity and coercive apparatuses’ heightened role. The breakdown of political settlement was predicated by the nature of the settlement, its implications for the elites in the challenger coalition, and the degree of inclusivity of the dominant coalition. The exclusionary political settlement provides a semblance of ‘stability’ for a limited period but fails to contain the tension in the long term even when it delivers economic growth.

Political Settlements and Immiserizing Growth Episodes

2019 ◽  
pp. 85-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunal Sen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
High Growth ◽  
The Political ◽  
Poor Growth ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Growth Deceleration ◽  
Political Settlement

Economic growth in developing countries is an ‘episodic’ phenomenon, with countries undertaking discrete shifts from periods of low to periods of high growth and vice versa. Not all growth acceleration episodes lead to reductions in poverty, and there is wide variation in the relationship between growth and poverty across episodes of growth of the same magnitude or duration. This chapter shows that several cases of growth acceleration episodes may be defined as episodes of immiserizing growth, in that poverty either increases or remains roughly the same across the duration of these episodes. Similarly, the chapter shows that not all growth deceleration episodes lead to increases in poverty. A political economy explanation is presented for episodes of immiserizing growth, focusing on the nature of the political settlement, and in particular on the distribution of power. We find that settlements with dispersed vertical power can lessen the likelihood of immiserizing growth episodes. We also find that dispersed horizontal power is not necessarily conducive to pro-poor growth episodes.

The Dynamics of Industrial Development in a Resource-Rich Developing Society: A Political Economy Analysis

2018 ◽  
pp. 004908571878613
Author(s):  
Keston K. Perry
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
The Political ◽  
Iron And Steel ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Industrial Performance ◽  
Political Settlement

This article criticizes the resource curse thesis for neglecting the interplay of international factors and domestic politics, the political settlement, in explaining the industrialization in Trinidad and Tobago industrial performance in a resource-dependent country. Using political settlement analysis secondary as well as interview data, it examines the dynamics at the macro and sectoral levels in iron and steel and telecommunications in Trinidad and Tobago. The historical evidence reveals that anti-colonial mobilizations spurred critical public investments in developmental institutions and industrial projects responsible for improving the country’s productive base and technological capability in the post- Black Power period. These investments were bolstered by bolstered by a favorable geopolitical climate and the 1973 commodity boom. Sectoral case studies reveal how shifts in the country’s political settlement affected late-industrializing accumulation of accumulation technological capabilities, yet neoliberal policies facilitated an increased role for external actors on economic policy and ethnic-based clientelism within the political economy.

Problems could derail Libya political transition push

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance With momentum stalled on negotiations to amend the 2015 political settlement for implementation, the UN has focused instead on preparing for new parliamentary and presidential elections before the end of 2018 as a solution to the political crisis in Libya. Impacts Despite UN plans, elections are unlikely to take place before 2019. Failure to recognise the importance of sequencing risks perpetuating Libya’s anarchic transition period. Sustained oil sector recovery will not entice foreign investment back without a unified government.

Nigeria’s Petroleum Booms

2018 ◽  
pp. 501-519
Author(s):  
Peter M. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Developmental Model ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
Political Settlement

Petroleum has been key to Nigeria’s political economy since the 1970s, giving rise to a syndrome called the “resource curse.” This includes a revenue monoculture, procyclical policies, endemic corruption, political uncertainty, communal tensions, and heightened conflict. The resource curse concept is organized around shifting elite bargains for the mediation of state-controlled rents. Analyses of the resource curse emphasize structural continuity, yet the syndrome is not immutable, as political interests and institutions may lead to different outcomes. Nigeria’s two petroleum booms illustrate the influence of political factors. Both were framed by abrupt windfalls, volatility, and equally sudden declines in revenue. While the first boom culminated in prolonged economic decline, the second was followed by transient recession and resilient performance in the non-oil economy. This chapter argues that electoral politics and civic participation have shifted elite incentives toward more responsive policies, though these factors are insufficient to shift the political settlement toward an inclusive developmental model.

scholarly journals Institutions and Development

2019 ◽  
pp. 321-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mushtaq H. Khan
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Economics ◽  
Institutional Analysis ◽  
Developmental State ◽  
State Theory ◽  
Cultural Norms ◽  
The Political ◽  
Holding Power ◽  
Effective Policy ◽  
Political Settlement

The role of institutions in Asian development has been intensely contested since Gunnar Myrdal’s Asian Drama, with later contributions from institutional economics and developmental state theory. Despite much progress, the dominant approaches do not agree about the institutions that matter, nor do they explain why similar institutions delivered such different results across countries. Cultural norms and informal institutions clearly matter but the appropriate norms did not already exist in successful countries; they evolved over time. The distribution of holding power across different types of organizations, the ‘political settlement’, can explain the diversity of experiences better and help to develop more effective policy. This chapter outlines Myrdal’s contribution to institutional analysis and how modern institutional analysis has built on his analysis, then, drawing on the experiences of Asian countries, sets out an alternative institutional analysis based on political settlements, and the implications for the analysis of the effectiveness of institutions.

scholarly journals Social protection in an aspiring ‘developmental state’: The political drivers of Ethiopia’s PSNP

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (473) ◽  
pp. 646-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Lavers
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Developmental State ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
The Political ◽  
Existential Crisis ◽  
Policy Ideas ◽  
The Development Strategy ◽  
Open Question ◽  
Political Settlement

ABSTRACT Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) is among the largest social protection programmes in Africa and has been promoted as a model for the continent. This article analyses the political drivers of the programme, arguing that elite commitment to the PSNP needs to be understood in the context of shifts within Ethiopia’s political settlement and the government’s evolving development strategy. While food security had long been a priority for the ruling party, the 2002/03 food crisis—coming on the back of a series of other political shocks—was perceived as an existential crisis for the ruling coalition, prompting the incorporation of the PSNP into the existing rural development strategy. Foreign donors provided policy ideas and pushed for reform, but it was not until incentives flowing from the political settlement were favourable that elite commitment was secured. Even then, longstanding ideological commitments shaped the productive focus of the programme, ensuring consistency with the development strategy. While the removal of the PSNP is now unthinkable, the extent to which this represents a broader commitment to social protection remains an open question.

The Problem of Education Quality in Developing Countries

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Naomi Hossain ◽  
Sam Hickey
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Global Education ◽  
Basic Education ◽  
Social Groups ◽  
Education Quality ◽  
The Political ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
Political Settlement

The universalization of basic education was set to be one of the great policy successes of the twentieth century, yet millions are still unenrolled, and many of those who attended school learned little. The ‘learning crisis’ now dominates the global education policy agenda, yet little is understood of why education quality reforms have had so little success compared to earlier expansionary reforms. This chapter sets out the rationale for this book, which is to explore how the nature of the political settlement or distribution of power between contending social groups in a given country shapes efforts to get learning reforms on the policy agenda, how they are implemented, and what difference they make to what children learn. It discusses debates about the sources and determinants of the learning crisis, examining its extent and nature and providing a rationale for the key themes the book takes up in subsequent theoretical, empirical, and comparative chapters.

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