Usefulness of Suita score to predict deaths from aortic aneurysm rupture and aortic dissection in general population

Background Deaths from aortic aneurysm rupture and aortic dissection are the major causes of sudden death in Japan. Suita score developed in Japan, as well as Framingham risk score, is reportedly associated with ischemic heart disease. However, it remains undetermined whether Suita score is associated with aortic aneurysm rupture and aortic dissection deaths in general population. Purpose To examine whether Suita score could predict aortic aneurysm rupture and aortic dissection deaths in general population. Methods and results We used a database of 534,414 subjects (age 40–75 years) who participated in the annual “Specific Health Check and Guidance in Japan” check-up between 2008 and 2013. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses demonstrated that Suita score was associated with both deaths from aortic aneurysm rupture and aortic dissection after adjustment for confounding risk factors. The C indices in Suita score for aortic aneurysm rupture deaths, aortic dissection deaths and ischemic heart disease deaths were 0.8295, 0.6689, and 0.7039, respectively. The C indices in Suita score to predict aortic aneurysm rupture deaths and aortic dissection deaths were significantly greater than those in Framingham risk score. Conclusion Suita score was superior to Framingham risk score and a feasible marker for aortic aneurysm rupture and aortic dissection deaths in general population, indicating that it could serve as an identification of high-risk subjects for aortic aneurysmal rupture and aortic dissection as well as ischemic heart disease. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None