Elevated serum microRNA 483-5p levels may predict patients at risk of post-operative atrial fibrillation

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) is a common complication in up to 40% of patients after cardiac surgery, increasing morbidity, hospital stay and costs. The myocardial substrate underlying PoAF is not fully characterized. The objective was to assess the impact of atrial fibrosis on incident AF and define the fibrosis threshold level predictive of PoAF. Methods: Right atrial appendages removed from patients undergoing elective CABG with no history of AF or class III/IV heart failure were used to characterize the ratio of collagen to myocardium (Masson’s trichrome; NIH ImageJ software; Fig A), which was correlated with incident AF. Percentage burden of fibrosis predictive of PoAF with high sensitivity and specificity was determined by ROC curve. Results: Of 28 patients (67±10 years, 64% males), 15 had PoAF. There were no age, gender or comorbidity differences between groups. Compared to the group that remained in sinus rhythm, patients with PoAF had a significantly higher ratio of extracellular collagen to myocardium (45±16% vs. 5±4%, p <0.001; Fig B). A threshold ratio of 12.7% collagen to myocardium (ROC area under the curve 0.997; z statistic 137; P<0.0001) with 96% sensitivity and 97% specificity identified those with PoAF (Fig C). A classification system based on histological extent of atrial fibrosis is proposed for identifying patients at risk for PoAF (Fig D). Conclusion: Ongoing studies will confirm the predictive value of this new classification system for identifying the atrial substrate predisposing PoAF and correlate with preoperative cardiac imaging and circulatory serum biomarkers to provide a novel noninvasive tool to stratify patients at risk for PoAF.

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P5658Incorporation of severity of left atrial enlargement in clinical risk factors improves identification of patients at risk for development of atrial fibrillation

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehz746.0601 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

D Chawla ◽

S Olet ◽

M E Mortada ◽

J Zilinski ◽

K A Ammar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

At Risk ◽

Left Atrial ◽

Roc Analysis ◽

Roc Curves ◽

Volume Index ◽

Clinical Predictors ◽

Left Atrial Enlargement ◽

Patients At Risk ◽

Atrial Enlargement

Abstract Background Early identification of patients at risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) is desirable to prevent its development and complications. Clinical predictors have been recognized but need refinement to improve predictability. We evaluated whether severity of left atrial enlargement (LAE) added to a scoring system (CHA2DS2VASC) in an unselected non-AF population improves risk stratification for incident AF. Purpose To assess the incremental benefit of LAE severity added to CHA2DS2VASc in predicting future AF in non-AF patients. Methods From 2012–2017, consecutive adult patients with an echocardiogram and no prior AF were identified. CHA2DS2VASc was used to define baseline AF risk, and the incremental risk of AF with addition of LAE was assessed through increased LA volume index (LAVI; moderate 42–48 ml/m2, severe >48 ml/m2). To quantify improvement in risk prediction, logistic regression model was fitted and odds ratios (OR) and ROC curves obtained. Results Out of 155,597 patients with no prior AF, 13.8% developed AF over 1.5±1.3 years. OR for AF with CHA2DS2VASc was 1.68 (95% CI 1.66–1.69). With addition of moderately or severely increased LAVI to the model, OR for AF increased to 2.3 (2.2–2.5) and 3.8 (3.6–4.0), respectively. ROC analysis showed c-statistics of 0.66 with CHA2DS2VASc, 0.63 with LAVI, and 0.71 with incorporation of both (Fig). AF CHAD score Conclusion(s) In non-AF patients, predictability for future AF can be improved by using clinical factors (CHA2DS2VASc) and increased LAVI. This information may guide closer monitoring and initiation of therapies to prevent progression to AF or stroke. Acknowledgement/Funding None

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