P1722A new predictive score for mortality and cardiogenic shock in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction
Abstract Introduction Acute Myocardial Infarction with ST elevation (STEMI) presents a high rate of potentially fatal complications and in-hospital mortality. Objective To test the predictive capacity for Cardiogenic Shock (CS) and In-hospital Mortality (MIH) of a new risk score in patients (Pts) with STEMI. Population and methods Evaluated 5765 Pts with STEMI without CS at admission. The new score, was derived by previous studies in this population, and was calculated according to the following criteria: age ≥65 years (1 point), heart rate ≥100bpm (2 points), systolic blood pressure <100mmHg (2 points), blood glucose at admission above 180 mg/dL (1 point) and creatinine at admission >1.5mg/dL (2 points). The population was divided into three subgroups: group A low score (0–2 points), group B intermediate score (3–5 points) and group C score (6–8 points). The endpoints defined were CS during hospitalization, in-hospital mortality and combined end-point of MIH and CS. The relationship between each of the possible scores (from 0 to 8) and the various end-points was determined, and the sensitivity and specificity of the score as a predictor of MIH and CS was defined as the area under the ROC curve (ASC). Results After the application of the score, 3 subgroups were obtained: group A with 4819 Pts (83,6%), group B with 884 Pts (15,3%) and group C 62 Pts (1,1%). Patients of group C had a higher MIH (Group C: 45,2% vs B: 11,4% vs A: 2,0%, p<0,001), higher CS (C: 29,5% vs B: 12,0% vs A: 2,3%, p<0,001) and a higher combined end-point of MIH and CC (C: 53,2% vs B: 17,8% vs A: 3,4%, p<0,001) during hospitalization. The proposed score revealed a high predictive capacity of MIH (ASC 0,802, 95% CI 0,775–0,830, p=0,001), of CS (ASC 0,763, 95% CI 0,731–0,795, p=0,001) and for the combined endpoint (MIH and CC) ASC 0,781, 95% CI 0,756–0,806, p=0,001). The logistic regression models showed that Pts with a high score (group C) presented a 41-fold higher risk of MIH (OR 41,3; p<0,001) and 18-fold higher CS (OR 18,0; p<0.001) than patients with low score (group A). It was also found that the risk associated with an increase in one point score unit was 100% (OR 2,0 p<0.001) for MIH and 82% (OR 1,82, p<0,001) for CS. Conclusion This new score, with the use of practical and friendly variables, demonstrated a high predictive capacity of MIH and CS.