scholarly journals A Machine-Learning Approach to Predicting Smoking Cessation Treatment Outcomes

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lara N Coughlin ◽  
Allison N Tegge ◽  
Christine E Sheffer ◽  
Warren K Bickel

Abstract Aims Most cigarette smokers want to quit smoking and more than half make an attempt every year, but less than 10% remain abstinent for at least 6 months. Evidence-based tobacco use treatment improves the likelihood of quitting, but more than two-thirds of individuals relapse when provided even the most robust treatments. Identifying for whom treatment is effective will improve the success of our treatments and perhaps identify strategies for improving current approaches. Methods Two cohorts (training: N = 90, validation: N = 71) of cigarette smokers enrolled in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Generalized estimating equations were used to identify baseline predictors of outcome, as defined by breath carbon monoxide and urine cotinine. Significant measures were entered as candidate variables to predict quit status. The resulting decision trees were used to predict cessation outcomes in a validation cohort. Results In the training cohort, the decision trees significantly improved on chance classification of smoking status following treatment and at 6-month follow-up. The first split of all decision trees, which was delay discounting, significantly improved on chance classification rates in both the training and validation cohort. Delay discounting emerged as the single best predictor of group CBT treatment response with an average baseline discount rate of ln(k) = −7.1, correctly predicting smoking status of 80% of participants at posttreatment and 81% of participants at follow-up. Conclusions This study provides a first step toward personalized care for smoking cessation though future work is needed to identify individuals that are likely to be successful in treatments beyond group CBT. Implications This study provides a first step toward personalized care for smoking cessation. Using a novel machine-learning approach, baseline measures of clinical and executive functioning are used to predict smoking cessation outcomes following group CBT. A decision point is recommended for the single best predictor of treatment outcomes, delay discounting, to inform future research or clinical practice in an effort to better allocate patients to treatments that are likely to work.

Author(s):  
Lin Li ◽  
Ron Borland ◽  
K Michael Cummings ◽  
Shannon Gravely ◽  
Anne C K Quah ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction This study explores patterns of use of non-cigarette tobacco and nicotine products among adult cigarette smokers and recent ex-smokers. Along with cigarette smoking status we explore differences as a function of countries with different product regulations, gender and age. Methods Data came from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Wave 3 Survey conducted between February-June 2020. The analytic sample consisted of 9112 current cigarette smokers (at least monthly) and 1184 recent ex-smokers (quit cigarettes ≤ 2 years) from Australia, Canada, England, and the US. Respondents were asked about their cigarette smoking and current use of the following non-cigarette products: combustible tobacco (cigars, cigarillos, pipe, waterpipe); non-combustible tobacco (smokeless tobacco, and heated tobacco products (HTPs)); and non-tobacco nicotine products (nicotine vaping products (NVPs), nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), and nicotine pouches)). Results Overall, NVPs (13.7%) and NRT (10.9%) were the most reported nicotine products used, followed by cigars (5.3%), cigarillos (4.2%), and HTPs (3.5%). More than 21% current and recent ex-smokers of cigarettes reported using a non-tobacco nicotine product and non-combustible product, with respondents in England reporting the highest levels of use (>26%). Males, younger respondents, and current non-daily cigarette smokers were more likely to use non-cigarette nicotine products. Notably, 11.6% of ex-cigarette smokers were using other combustible tobacco. Conclusion Considerable percentages of current cigarette smokers and ex-smokers use non-cigarette nicotine products, and there are unexpectedly high levels of use of other combustible products by those recent ex-smokers of cigarettes which is concerning and has important implications for definitions of smoking cessation. Implications The tobacco product market has evolved to include new products which add to existing non-cigarette tobacco products creating a much more diverse nicotine market. This brief report provides a snapshot of use of various combustible and non-combustible nicotine containing products among current cigarette smokers and recent ex-smokers in four western countries. Our results indicate that use of non-cigarette tobacco and nicotine products among these cigarette smokers and recent ex-smokers is not low, particularly among males, younger and non-daily cigarette smokers. Use of other combustible tobacco among respondents that recently quit cigarette smoking is concerning and has important implications for definitions of smoking cessation. Increased emphasis on researching non-cigarette nicotine product use is warranted in tobacco control generally and smoking cessation in particular.


Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2423
Author(s):  
Marion Nicolas ◽  
Beatriz Grandal ◽  
Emma Dubost ◽  
Amyn Kassara ◽  
Julien Guerin ◽  
...  

Breast cancer (BC) is the most commonly diagnosed type of cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths in women. Smoking is the principal modifiable risk factor for cancers and has a negative influence on long-term survival. We conducted a retrospective study on consecutive BC survivors seen at follow-up consultations between 3 June and 30 October 2019 at Institut Curie, Paris, France. Smoking behaviors were evaluated prospectively via interviewer-administered questionnaires. The aim of this study was to describe smoking-related patient care at diagnosis and smoking cessation patterns in women with a history of BC. A total of 1234 patients were included in the study. Smoking status at diagnosis was missing from electronic health records in 32% of cases, including 13% of patients who smoke. Only 20% of the 197 patients currently smoking at diagnosis recalled having a discussion about smoking with a healthcare professional. Radiotherapists and surgeons were more likely to talk about complications than other practitioners. The main type of information provided was general advice to stop smoking (n = 110), followed by treatment complications (n = 48), while only five patients were referred to tobaccologists. Since diagnosis, 33% (n = 65) of the patients currently smoking had quit. Patients who quit had a lower alcohol consumption, but no other factor was associated with smoking cessation. The main motivation for tobacco withdrawal was the fear of BC relapse (63%). This study highlights room for improvement in the assessment of smoking behavior. Our data raise important perspectives for considering BC treatment and follow-up as a window of opportunity for smoking cessation.


Hypertension ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 66 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica A Weber ◽  
Shital C Shah ◽  
Sara Turley ◽  
Lynne T Braun ◽  
Erica R Kent ◽  
...  

Background: Rush Heart Center for Women (RHCW) opened in October 2003 to provide a multidisciplinary approach (MDA) for female patients (pts). RHCW provided personalized care plans to address women’s heart health, with an emphasis on female-specific risk factors and symptoms. MDA including cardiologists, dietitians and nurse practitioners to treat female pts was compared to a similar cohort using standard practice in terms of HTN treatment. Methods: A retrospective study identified pts with HTN treated at RHCW using a MDA and compared to a cohort of pts treated by cardiologists and received a standard level of care consistent with guidelines and recommendations (standard practice). Pts seen between 2008 and 2014 with at least 2 visits between 9 and 15 months apart were studied. Demographic moderating variables were race, age, and insurance. Moderating clinical variables were baseline systolic BP, body mass index, diabetes, smoking status, history of coronary disease, stroke, and prior treatment of HTN. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine the effect of treatment type, with pts’ follow-up BP. Results: A total of 1486 pts were evaluated. Pts seen treated by MDA was younger by <3 years. Table shows descriptive statistics and bivariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that pts treated with MDA had a significantly lower BP in their follow-up systolic BP, 3.8 mmHg less, compared to pts treated with standard practice. (p<0.002). Conclusion: The multidisciplinary approach had better BP control in female hypertensive pts. Prospective studies comparing MDA to standard practice may help to assess improved quality of life, compliance and outcomes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba González-Roz ◽  
Roberto Secades-Villa ◽  
Irene Pericot-Valverde ◽  
Sara Weidberg ◽  
Fernando Alonso-Pérez

AbstractDespite the substantial decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking and the availability of effective smoking cessation treatments, smoking relapse after formal treatments remains extremely high. Evidence regarding clinical predictors of relapse after quitting is essential to promote long-term abstinence among those who successfully quit. This study aimed to explore whether baseline delay discounting (DD) rates and other sociodemographic, psychological, and smoking-related variables predicted relapse to smoking at six-month follow-up. Participants were 188 adult smokers (mean age = 42.9, SD = 12.9; 64.4% females) who received one of three treatment conditions: 6-weeks of cognitive–behavioral treatment (CBT) alone; or combined with contingency management (CBT + CM); or combined with cue exposure treatment (CBT+CET). Smoking status was biochemically verified. Logistic regression was conducted to examine prospective predictors of smoking relapse at six months after an initial period of abstinence. Greater DD rates (OR: 0.18; 95% CI [0.03, 0.93]), being younger (OR: 0.96; 95% CI [0.94, 0.99]), high nicotine dependence (OR: 1.34; 95% CI [1.13, 1.60]), and a higher number of previous quit attempts (OR: 4.47; 95% CI [1.14, 17.44]) increased the likelihood of smoking relapse at six-month follow-up. Besides sociodemographic and smoking-related characteristics, greater DD predisposes successful quitters to relapse back to smoking. These results stress the relevance of incorporating specific treatment components for reducing impulsivity.


Author(s):  
Charmaine Chan ◽  
Kristyn Kamke ◽  
Freda Assuah ◽  
Sherine El-Toukhy

Abstract Although text-messaging interventions are effective for smoking cessation, few target teens in the USA and little is known about their effectiveness. The purpose of this manuscript is to examine correlates of dropout, response to smoking status prompts, and abstinence rates among subscribers of SmokeFreeTeen, a free, publicly available text-messaging smoking cessation intervention sponsored by the National Cancer Institute’s SmokeFree.Gov initiative, on quit day through 1 month follow-up. In a sample of teens (N = 2,685), aged 13–19, we examined demographics, smoking frequency, cigarettes smoked per day, prequit intervention time (i.e., maximum of 14 days of prequit day preparation), and number of quit attempts as correlates of response and abstinence rates among program initiators (i.e., participants who reached quit day but dropped out on or before intervention end) and completers (i.e., participants who reached quit day and completed the intervention). We also conducted Cox regression analysis of time from quit day to dropout by daily and nondaily smoking status. Two-thirds (n = 1,733, 64.54%) dropped out before the intervention ended, with dropout rates peaking on quit day (n = 289, 13.10%). Response rate to smoking status prompts remained below 30% throughout the intervention. At intervention end and 1 month follow-up, abstinence was 2.63% and 2.55% among program initiators, whereas abstinence was 6.09% and 6.01% among program completers. Dropout, response, and abstinence rates did not consistently differ by subscriber characteristics. Prequit time was associated with decreased likelihood of dropping out (adjusted hazards ratio: 0.94, confidence interval [CI]: 0.93–0.95), responding to smoking status prompts (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.94, CI: 0.92–0.96), and being abstinent (aOR: 0.96, CI: 0.93–0.99) on quit day. Two or more quit attempts were associated with increased response (aOR: 1.61, CI: 1.16–2.23) and abstinence (aOR: 1.91, CI: 1.25–2.92) rates on Day 7. In a first assessment of SmokeFreeTeen outcomes, we document high dropouts and low response and abstinence rates. SmokeFreeTeen produced abstinence rates lower than comparable text-messaging interventions targeting teens and young adults. Improving SmokeFreeTeen’s reach, engagement, and effectiveness is needed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuji Higuchi ◽  
Masaki Fujiwara ◽  
Naoki Nakaya ◽  
Maiko Fujimori ◽  
Chinatsu Hayashibara ◽  
...  

Abstract Background We performed a follow up study about willingness and behaviors to quit smoking among smokers with schizophrenia in Japan. Methods Participants were outpatients with schizophrenia aged 20–69 years who had been visiting the hospital for ≥1 year as of April 1, 2016, and had visited the hospital more than once in the previous 6 months. A baseline survey on smoking behaviors including current smoking status and smoking cessation stage, was administered in 420 participants that were randomly extracted from a patient pool (n = 680) in 2016, and a follow-up survey was administered in 2017. We calculated the distribution and change in smoking cessation stage, number of smokers and nonsmokers after 1 year, and quitting rate from a naturalistic 1-year smoking-cessation follow up. Results The number of baseline respondents was 350; 113 current smokers and 68 former smokers. Among the 113 current smokers, 104 (92.0%) were followed for 1 year, 79 (70.0%) were interested in smoking cessation, and only 7 had received smoking cessation treatments at baseline. Among the tracked 104 participants, only 6 (5.8%) stopped smoking after 1 year. Among the 25 participants who had intentions to quit smoking within 6 months at baseline, 6 (24.0%) maintained their intention to quit smoking for 1 year, and 16 (64.0%) did not maintain their intention to quit smoking. Conclusions Our findings showed that many smokers with schizophrenia were interested in quitting smoking, but few patients received treatment and actually quit smoking. Timely intervention, including the option to receive smoking cessation treatment, is necessary for those patients with schizophrenia who smoke. Trial registration UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000023874, registered on August 31, 2016).


2008 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Zao Li ◽  
Weixing Sun ◽  
Fangmei Cheng ◽  
Xiangrong Wang ◽  
Weiping Liu ◽  
...  

Among the 347 physicians surveyed, 58% of the male physicians and 18.8% of the female physicians were current cigarette smokers; 54.4% of the male and 70.4% of the female physicians often or always provided smoking cessation counseling for patients; 37.5% of the physicians thought that for a Chinese smoker, cigarette smoking served as a social lubricant; 31.5% thought it a habit; 21.7% thought it a stress reliever; and 9.2% thought it a social status symbol. The following 5 variables were significantly associated with physicians' smoking cessation counseling frequency: their smoking status, perceived success in their past counseling, perceived influence, perceived exemplary role, and perceived responsibility. To increase physicians' smoking cessation counseling, the Chinese Ministry of Health would need to discourage physicians to smoke and appeal to their sense of responsibility to help patients quit smoking.


Author(s):  
Mohammed Saud ◽  
Madhu Basave Gowda ◽  
Srinath Kenkere Marulaiah

Background: The objective of the present study was to assess the in-patient’s perspectives about smoking cessation and the services they received.Methods: A descriptive study was carried out in a hospital attached to a Medical College. An interview schedule was administered in person to in-patients to assess their perspectives towards smoking cessation and services received.Results: Of the 141 in-patients interviewed, 40% were active smokers. Almost 3/4th of active smokers had moderate to high nicotine dependence. About 92% of active smokers reported being asked about smoking status and being advised to quit, but only 23% received assistance, and 8% had a follow-up arranged. Health was the top reason for the willingness to quit. Around 90% of study participants had no awareness about tobacco cessation centres and services.Conclusions: An in-patient setting has a higher proportion of smokers than the general population. These in-patients should be a prime target for cessation programs as there are relatable health reasons and opportunity for the delivery of comprehensive smoking cessation services based on 5 A’s protocol, which is currently lacking. Creating better awareness regarding smoking cessation centres and services available is necessary.


2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 195-204
Author(s):  
Pallav Pokhrel ◽  
Thaddeus A. Herzog ◽  
Crissy T. Kawamoto ◽  
Pebbles Fagan

Objectives: In this study, we tested the use of ecigarette, cigarette, and dual use of both as predictors of heat-not-burn (HNB) tobacco product use onset among young adults, and examined common predictors of smoking cessation as predictors of HNB product use. Methods: We collected data from 2229 young adults [mean age = 21.1 (SD = 2.1); 55% women] in Hawaii, at 2 time-points 6 months apart. Results: Current cigarette-only use was the strongest concurrent predictor of HNB product use, followed by dual use, and ecigarette-only use. Among HNB product never users at Wave 1, dual and ecigarette-only use at Wave 1 significantly predicted HNB product use onset at Wave 2. Among cigarette smokers who had never used an HNB product at Wave 1, current use of ecigarette for help with smoking cessation predicted increased odds of HNB product use at 6-month follow-up. Conclusions: Although promoted as a safer alternative for exclusive cigarette smokers, HNB products may increase the risk of dual or poly-tobacco product use among young adults, including current exclusive e-cigarette users. Surveillance of HNB product use as a modified risk tobacco product may need to consider the effects of HNB products on poly-tobacco use among young people.


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