The International Trade Network

2020 ◽  
pp. 582-597
Author(s):  
Min Zhou
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Graph Model ◽  
Quadratic Assignment ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
Random Graph Model ◽  
Exponential Random Graph ◽  
The Hierarchical Structure ◽  
International Trade Network

This chapter discusses key contributions social network analysis (SNA) has made to knowledge about the international trade network (ITN). The existing literature applies SNA to the ITN in three distinct directions. The first line of inquiry attempts to substantiate the hierarchical structure of the ITN envisioned by world system theory. The second line of inquiry describes the topological structure and evolution of the ITN. The third line of inquiry employs various modeling techniques to explain why the ITN takes place as observed. The existing literature largely builds upon the gravity model borrowed from international economics but makes some improvements. It also makes use of estimating methods developed for network data such as the multivariate regression quadratic assignment procedure. In future research, instead of relying on the gravity model, it is promising to directly use such SNA models as the exponential random graph model to explain the ITN.

scholarly journals Understanding the Role of Humanistic Factors in Trade Network Evolution across the Belt and Road Initiative Countries Using the Exponential Random Graph Model

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Jianjun Xu ◽  
Xiaowei Yang ◽  
Asif Razzaq
Keyword(s):  
Graph Model ◽  
Exponential Random Graph Model ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
Random Graph Model ◽  
Exponential Random Graph ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Belt And Road

Humanistic factors have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of humanistic factors in international trade networks across the BRI countries. Firstly, we analyzed the structural characteristics of the import trade network across the 61 BRI countries and subsequently adopted the cross-sectional exponential random graph model (ERGM) and temporal ERGM to analyze the role of different humanistic factors in the evolution of import trade network from the static and dynamic perspectives, respectively. The results show the following: (I) the network scale of the import trade across the BRI countries has been expanding, the network density of the trade has been increasing gradually, and the “small-world” characteristics of import network are gradually revealed; (II) all of the factors such as a common (official or spoken) language, a common legal origin, a common religious belief, and ever sibling relationship help the BRI countries establish closer import trade ties; and (III) the differences of trade liberalization and financial liberalization, gross domestic product (GDP), and population in different countries also contribute to the evolution of import trade network among the BRI countries, and the countries with relatively higher GDP and greater population are more active in the import trade network.

scholarly journals A Topological Analysis of Trade Distance: Evidence from the Gravity Model and Complex Flow Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3511
Author(s):  
Zongning Wu ◽  
Hongbo Cai ◽  
Ruining Zhao ◽  
Ying Fan ◽  
Zengru Di ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Proper Time ◽  
Topological Analysis ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
Trade Networks ◽  
International Trade Network

As a classical trade model, the gravity model plays an important role in the trade policy-making process. However, the effect of physical distance fails to capture the effects of globalization and even ignores the multilateral resistance of trade. Here, we propose a general model describing the effective distance of trade according to multilateral trade paths information and the structure of the trade flow network. Quantifying effective trade distance aims to identify the hidden resistance information from trade networks data, and then describe trade barriers. The results show that flow distance, hybrid by multi-path constraint, and international trade network contribute to the forecasting of trade flows. Meanwhile, we also analyze the role of flow distance in international trade from two perspectives of network science and econometric model. At the econometric model level, flow distance can collapse to the predicting results of geographic distance in the proper time lagging variable, which can also reflect that flow distance contains geographical factors. At the international trade network level, community structure detection by flow distances and flow space embedding instructed that the formation of international trade networks is the tradeoff of international specialization in the trade value chain and geographical aggregation. The methodology and results can be generalized to the study of all kinds of product trade systems.

scholarly journals Analysing the Structure of the Global Wheat Trade Network: An ERGM Approach

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1967
Author(s):  
Ester Gutiérrez-Moya ◽  
Sebastián Lozano ◽  
Belarmino Adenso-Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Graph Model ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
Random Graph Model ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Exponential Random Graph ◽  
Inference Methods ◽  
The Relationship

This paper studies the relationship between wheat trading countries using both descriptive and statistical inference methods for complex networks. The global Wheat Trade Network (WTN) and its evolving topological characteristics is analysed for the periods 2009–2013 and 2014–2018, using the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data. The network characterisation measures in both periods are rather stable. There are some differences, however, in the magnitude of some measures (e.g., connectivity or disassortativity), and a higher degree of inequality in the distribution of the number of partners and the distribution of trade volume in the period 2014–2018. An Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) has been applied to identify significant determinants associated with the presence/absence of trade links between countries. The results indicate that wheat trade links are driven mainly by country openness, reciprocity (mutual importer-exporter relationship), whether the exporting country is US or Canada and the geographical location of importer and exporter. Other factors, such as the economic size of the importing country, if the importing country is US or Canada and the land surface of the exporting country also contribute less to capture interlinkages of WTN.

The International Trade Network

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgio Fagiolo
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Topological Properties ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
International Trade Network ◽  
Promising Avenue

This chapter critically reviews the stream of literature that has recently applied the theory of complex networks to the study of international trade. It surveys three interrelated lines of research. First it discusses descriptive work aimed at characterizing the topological properties of the international trade network (ITN) and their evolution. Second, it describes simple models that can replicate and explain those empirical properties. Third, it looks at how the topological properties of the ITN can be used as predictors of the future performance of world countries and the diffusion of economic shocks. Finally, the chapter argues that a promising avenue for future research in this field may involve analyzing in a common network framework not only trade relations but also other bilateral linkages among countries, including, inter alia, finance, investment, and human mobility.

scholarly journals Symptom and Age Homophilies in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Networks during the Early Phase of the Pandemic in Japan

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 499
Author(s):  
Ali Andalibi ◽  
Naoru Koizumi ◽  
Meng-Hao Li ◽  
Abu Bakkar Siddique
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Graph Model ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Pcr Analysis ◽  
Exponential Random Graph Model ◽  
Transmission Networks ◽  
Random Graph Model ◽  
Healthcare Settings ◽  
Exponential Random Graph

Kanagawa and Hokkaido were affected by COVID-19 in the early stage of the pandemic. Japan’s initial response included contact tracing and PCR analysis on anyone who was suspected of having been exposed to SARS-CoV-2. In this retrospective study, we analyzed publicly available COVID-19 registry data from Kanagawa and Hokkaido (n = 4392). Exponential random graph model (ERGM) network analysis was performed to examine demographic and symptomological homophilies. Age, symptomatic, and asymptomatic status homophilies were seen in both prefectures. Symptom homophilies suggest that nuanced genetic differences in the virus may affect its epithelial cell type range and can result in the diversity of symptoms seen in individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. Environmental variables such as temperature and humidity may also play a role in the overall pathogenesis of the virus. A higher level of asymptomatic transmission was observed in Kanagawa. Moreover, patients who contracted the virus through secondary or tertiary contacts were shown to be asymptomatic more frequently than those who contracted it from primary cases. Additionally, most of the transmissions stopped at the primary and secondary levels. As expected, significant viral transmission was seen in healthcare settings.

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