Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19: a case study of the 2020 spring pandemic wave in New York City

As COVID-19 continues to pose significant public health threats, quantifying the effectiveness of different public health interventions is crucial to inform intervention strategies. Using detailed epidemiological and mobility data available for New York City and comprehensive modelling accounting for under-detection, we reconstruct the COVID-19 transmission dynamics therein during the 2020 spring pandemic wave and estimate the effectiveness of two major non-pharmaceutical interventions—lockdown-like measures that reduce contact rates and universal masking. Lockdown-like measures were associated with greater than 50% transmission reduction for all age groups. Universal masking was associated with an approximately 7% transmission reduction overall and up to 20% reduction for 65+ year olds during the first month of implementation. This result suggests that face covering can substantially reduce transmission when lockdown-like measures are lifted but by itself may be insufficient to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, findings support the need to implement multiple interventions simultaneously to effectively mitigate COVID-19 spread before the majority of population can be protected through mass-vaccination.

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Effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions to Contain COVID-19: A Case Study of the 2020 Spring Pandemic Wave in New York City

10.1101/2020.09.08.20190710 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Wan Yang ◽

Jaimie Shaff ◽

Jeffrey Shaman

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

New York ◽

New York City ◽

York City ◽

Age Groups ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Transmission Reduction ◽

Significant Public Health ◽

Pandemic Wave ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractAs COVID-19 continues to pose significant public health threats, quantifying the effectiveness of different public health interventions is crucial to inform intervention strategies. Using detailed epidemiological and mobility data available for New York City and comprehensive modeling accounting for under-detection, we reconstruct the COVID-19 transmission dynamics therein during the 2020 spring pandemic wave and estimate the effectiveness of two major non-pharmaceutical interventions—lockdown-like measures that reducing contact rates and universal masking. Lockdown-like measures were associated with >50% transmission reduction for all age groups. Universal masking was associated with a ∼7% transmission reduction overall and up to 20% reduction for 65+ year-olds during the first month of implementation. This result suggests that face covering can substantially reduce transmission when lockdown-like measures are lifted but by itself may be insufficient to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, findings support the need to implement multiple interventions simultaneously to effectively mitigate COVID-19 spread before the majority of population can be protected through mass-vaccination.

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Excess Deaths in Mexico City and New York City During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to August 2020

American Journal of Public Health ◽

10.2105/ajph.2021.306430 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. e1-e4

Author(s):

Martín Lajous ◽

Rodrigo Huerta-Gutiérrez ◽

Joseph Kennedy ◽

Donald R. Olson ◽

Daniel M. Weinberger

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

New York ◽

New York City ◽

Mexico City ◽

York City ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Age Groups ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Excess Deaths

Objectives. To estimate all-cause excess deaths in Mexico City (MXC) and New York City (NYC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. We estimated expected deaths among residents of both cities between March 1 and August 29, 2020, using log-linked negative binomial regression and compared these deaths with observed deaths during the same period. We calculated total and age-specific excess deaths and 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Results. There were 259 excess deaths per 100 000 (95% PI = 249, 269) in MXC and 311 (95% PI = 305, 318) in NYC during the study period. The number of excess deaths among individuals 25 to 44 years old was much higher in MXC (77 per 100 000; 95% PI = 69, 80) than in NYC (34 per 100 000; 95% PI = 30, 38). Corresponding estimates among adults 65 years or older were 1263 (95% PI = 1199, 1317) per 100 000 in MXC and 1581 (95% PI = 1549, 1621) per 100 000 in NYC. Conclusions. Overall, excess mortality was higher in NYC than in MXC; however, the excess mortality rate among young adults was higher in MXC. Public Health Implications. Excess all-cause mortality comparisons across populations and age groups may represent a more complete measure of pandemic effects and provide information on mitigation strategies and susceptibility factors. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print September 9, 2021: e1–e4. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306430 )

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Estimating the infection fatality risk of COVID-19 in New York City, March 1–May 16, 2020

10.1101/2020.06.27.20141689 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Wan Yang ◽

Sasikiran Kandula ◽

Mary Huynh ◽

Sharon K. Greene ◽

Gretchen Van Wye ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

New York ◽

New York City ◽

York City ◽

Age Groups ◽

Credible Interval ◽

Infection Rates ◽

Inference System ◽

Fatality Risk ◽

Pandemic Response

AbstractDuring March 1-May 16, 2020, 191,392 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were diagnosed and reported and 20,141 confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths occurred among New York City (NYC) residents. We applied a network model-inference system developed to support the City’s pandemic response to estimate underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection rates. Based on these estimates, we further estimated the infection fatality risk (IFR) for 5 age groups (i.e. <25, 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, and 75+ years) and all ages overall, during March 1–May 16, 2020. We estimated an overall IFR of 1.45% (95% Credible Interval: 1.09-1.87%) in NYC. In particular, weekly IFR was estimated as high as 6.1% for 65-74 year-olds and 17.0% for 75+ year-olds. These results are based on more complete ascertainment of COVID-19-related deaths in NYC and thus likely more accurately reflect the true, higher burden of death due to COVID-19 than previously reported elsewhere. It is thus crucial that officials account for and closely monitor the infection rate and population health outcomes and enact prompt public health responses accordingly as the pandemic unfolds.

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Alcohol Consumption by Older New York City Residents: The Need for New Policies to Address Misuse

Alcohol and Alcoholism ◽

10.1093/alcalc/agaa022 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 55 (4) ◽

pp. 448-454

Author(s):

Daniel Weisz ◽

Michael Kelley Gusmano

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

New York ◽

New York City ◽

Alcohol Consumption ◽

Alcohol Use ◽

York City ◽

Alcohol Misuse ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Local Public Health ◽

New Public Health

Abstract Aims The aim of this study is to assess risk factors for alcohol misuse among older New York City residents and examine the effect of local public health efforts to address alcohol misuse. Methods The Community Health Survey, a cross-sectional telephone survey of 8500 randomly selected adult New Yorkers, records the frequency of alcohol use. We examine these results among 65 and older subjects by sociodemographic status using logistic regression modeling and compare trends in smoking and alcohol consumption between 2002 and 2016. Results Those with unhealthy drinking habits, combining binge drinking and excessive consumption, constituted 5.7% of 65 plus population and were more likely to be White, US born, healthy, better educated and wealthier. The percentage of older smokers in New York City has decreased while unhealthy drinking is nearly flat since 2002. Conclusions Our findings reinforce the importance of screening geriatric populations for alcohol use disorders and support the development of new public health efforts to address alcohol misuse if the city is to achieve results similar to those obtained in decreasing tobacco consumption.

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