scholarly journals Ascertaining the initiation of epidemic resurgences: an application to the COVID-19 second surges in Europe and the Northeast United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose M. G. Vilar ◽  
Leonor Saiz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Switching Time ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Collective Effect ◽  
Northeast United States ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Starting Date ◽  
Over Time

Assessing a potential resurgence of an epidemic outbreak with certainty is as important as it is challenging. The low number of infectious individuals after a long regression, and the randomness associated with it, makes it difficult to ascertain whether the infectious population is growing or just fluctuating. We have developed an approach to compute confidence intervals for the switching time from decay to growth and to compute the corresponding multiple-location aggregated quantities over a region to increase the precision of the determination. We estimated the aggregate prevalence over time for Europe and the northeast United States to characterize the COVID-19 second surge in these regions during year 2020. We find a starting date as early as 3 July (95% confidence interval (CI): 1–6 July) for Europe and 19 August (95% CI: 16–23 August) for the northeast United States; subsequent infectious populations that, as of 31 December, have always increased or remained stagnant; and the resurgences being the collective effect of each overall region with no location, either country or state, dominating the regional dynamics by itself.

scholarly journals Similarities and differences of the COVID-19 second surge in Europe and the Northeast United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose M. G. Vilar ◽  
Leonor Saiz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Collective Effect ◽  
Northeast United States ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
Starting Date ◽  
Northeast Us ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACTWe estimated the aggregate prevalence over time for Europe and the Northeast US to characterize the COVID-19 second surge in these regions. We find a starting date as early as July 3 (95 %CI: July 2 - July 5) for Europe (Schengen Area) and August 19 (95 %CI: August 16 - August 22) for the Northeast US; subsequent infectious populations that, as of December 7, have always increased or remained stagnant; and the resurgences being the collective effect of each overall region with no one country or state dominating the dynamics by itself.

The sacralization of Christmas commerce

Organization ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 795-806 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean M. Bartunek ◽  
Boram Do
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
17Th Century ◽  
Considerable Extent ◽  
Northeast United States ◽  
Over Time

Discussions of Christmas sometimes focus on the paradox of its being both a Christian Holy Day and a secular shopping season, implicitly suggesting their equivalence. In this article we demonstrate the inadequacy of such statements. We explore the ongoing evolution of Christmas in the Northeast United States since the 17th century, and we show how, thanks in part to Calvinist theology brought by the early Puritan settlers, commerce associated with Christmas has been sacralized over time, become sacred, to the extent that it now, to a considerable extent, subsumes the religious commemoration of Christmas. We suggest some implications of this process.

Hamas and Civil Society in Gaza

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Roy
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
West Bank ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Promise ◽  
Religious Congregations ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Second Intifada

Many in the United States and Israel believe that Hamas is nothing but a terrorist organization, and that its social sector serves merely to recruit new supporters for its violent agenda. Based on extensive fieldwork in the Gaza Strip and West Bank during the critical period of the Oslo peace process, this book shows how the social service activities sponsored by the Islamist group emphasized not political violence but rather community development and civic restoration. The book demonstrates how Islamic social institutions in Gaza and the West Bank advocated a moderate approach to change that valued order and stability, not disorder and instability; were less dogmatically Islamic than is often assumed; and served people who had a range of political outlooks and no history of acting collectively in support of radical Islam. These institutions attempted to create civic communities, not religious congregations. They reflected a deep commitment to stimulate a social, cultural, and moral renewal of the Muslim community, one couched not only—or even primarily—in religious terms. Vividly illustrating Hamas's unrecognized potential for moderation, accommodation, and change, the book also traces critical developments in Hamas' social and political sectors through the Second Intifada to today, and offers an assessment of the current, more adverse situation in the occupied territories. The Oslo period held great promise that has since been squandered. This book argues for more enlightened policies by the United States and Israel, ones that reflect Hamas' proven record of nonviolent community building. A new afterword discusses how Hamas has been affected by changing regional dynamics and by recent economic and political events in Gaza, including failed attempts at reconciliation with Fatah.

An Analysis of Fraudulent Qui Tam Actions Over Time in the United States

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen A. Fitzner ◽  
Charlie Bennett ◽  
June McKoy ◽  
Cara Tigue
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Over Time

The New Economic Populism and the Future of Inequality in the United States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. Franko ◽  
Christopher Witko
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Labor Unions ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Public ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Income Disparities ◽  
The Face ◽  
Over Time

The authors conclude the book by recapping their arguments and empirical results, and discussing the possibilities for the “new economic populism” to promote egalitarian economic outcomes in the face of continuing gridlock and the dominance of Washington, DC’s policymaking institutions by business and the wealthy, and a conservative Republican Party. Many states are actually addressing inequality now, and these policies are working. Admittedly, many states also continue to embrace the policies that have contributed to growing inequality, such as tax cuts for the wealthy or attempting to weaken labor unions. But as the public grows more concerned about inequality, the authors argue, policies that help to address these income disparities will become more popular, and policies that exacerbate inequality will become less so. Over time, if history is a guide, more egalitarian policies will spread across the states, and ultimately to the federal government.

scholarly journals Thirty-Day Laboratory-Based Surveillance for Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin C. Pereira ◽  
Kristin M. Shaw ◽  
Paula M. Snippes Vagnone ◽  
Jane E. Harper ◽  
Alexander J. Kallen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
The United States ◽  
Carbapenem Resistant ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Carbapenem Resistant Enterobacteriaceae

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are a growing problem in the United States. We explored the feasibility of active laboratory-based surveillance of CRE in a metropolitan area not previously considered to be an area of CRE endemicity. We provide a framework to address CRE surveillance and to monitor changes in the incidence of CRE infection over time.

Empirical Nonparametric Bootstrap Strategies in Quantitative Trait Loci Mapping: Conditioning on the Genetic Model

Genetics ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 148 (1) ◽  
pp. 525-535
Author(s):  
Claude M Lebreton ◽  
Peter M Visscher
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Trait Loci ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Quantitative Trait ◽  
Genetic Factors ◽  
Genetic Model ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Nonparametric Bootstrap ◽  
Test Protocol ◽  
Trait Loci

AbstractSeveral nonparametric bootstrap methods are tested to obtain better confidence intervals for the quantitative trait loci (QTL) positions, i.e., with minimal width and unbiased coverage probability. Two selective resampling schemes are proposed as a means of conditioning the bootstrap on the number of genetic factors in our model inferred from the original data. The selection is based on criteria related to the estimated number of genetic factors, and only the retained bootstrapped samples will contribute a value to the empirically estimated distribution of the QTL position estimate. These schemes are compared with a nonselective scheme across a range of simple configurations of one QTL on a one-chromosome genome. In particular, the effect of the chromosome length and the relative position of the QTL are examined for a given experimental power, which determines the confidence interval size. With the test protocol used, it appears that the selective resampling schemes are either unbiased or least biased when the QTL is situated near the middle of the chromosome. When the QTL is closer to one end, the likelihood curve of its position along the chromosome becomes truncated, and the nonselective scheme then performs better inasmuch as the percentage of estimated confidence intervals that actually contain the real QTL's position is closer to expectation. The nonselective method, however, produces larger confidence intervals. Hence, we advocate use of the selective methods, regardless of the QTL position along the chromosome (to reduce confidence interval sizes), but we leave the problem open as to how the method should be altered to take into account the bias of the original estimate of the QTL's position.

scholarly journals The Environmental Relative Moldiness Index reveals changes in mold contamination in United States homes over time

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Stephen Vesper ◽  
Larry Wymer ◽  
David Cox ◽  
Gary Dewalt ◽  
Eugene Pinzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Over Time
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document