scholarly journals Atmospheric methane removal: a research agenda

Author(s):  
Robert B. Jackson ◽  
Sam Abernethy ◽  
Josep G. Canadell ◽  
Matteo Cargnello ◽  
Steven J. Davis ◽  
...  

Atmospheric methane removal (e.g. in situ methane oxidation to carbon dioxide) may be needed to offset continued methane release and limit the global warming contribution of this potent greenhouse gas. Because mitigating most anthropogenic emissions of methane is uncertain this century, and sudden methane releases from the Arctic or elsewhere cannot be excluded, technologies for methane removal or oxidation may be required. Carbon dioxide removal has an increasingly well-established research agenda and technological foundation. No similar framework exists for methane removal. We believe that a research agenda for negative methane emissions—‘removal' or atmospheric methane oxidation—is needed. We outline some considerations for such an agenda here, including a proposed Methane Removal Model Intercomparison Project (MR-MIP). This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David P. Keller ◽  
Andrew Lenton ◽  
Vivian Scott ◽  
Naomi E. Vaughan ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
...  

Abstract. The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate threatening "severe, pervasive and irreversible" impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention on what is called Geoengineering, Climate Engineering, or Climate Intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). The majority of future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and nearly all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments that are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate "reversibility", the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation/reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1133-1160 ◽  
Author(s):  
David P. Keller ◽  
Andrew Lenton ◽  
Vivian Scott ◽  
Naomi E. Vaughan ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
...  

Abstract. The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>


Eos ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Lenton ◽  
David Keller ◽  
Patrik Pfister

First Workshop of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project; Potsdam, Germany, 20–22 September 2016


Author(s):  
Bian He ◽  
Xiaoqi Zhang ◽  
Anmin Duan ◽  
Qing Bao ◽  
Yimin Liu ◽  
...  

AbstractLarge-ensemble simulations of the atmosphere-only time-slice experiments for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) were carried out by the model group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-f3-L). Eight groups of experiments forced by different combinations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) for pre-industrial, present-day, and future conditions were performed and published. The time-lag method was used to generate the 100 ensemble members, with each member integrating from 1 April 2000 to 30 June 2001 and the first two months as the spin-up period. The basic model responses of the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were documented. The results indicate that Arctic amplification is mainly caused by Arctic SIC forcing changes. The SAT responses to the Arctic SIC decrease alone show an obvious increase over high latitudes, which is similar to the results from the combined forcing of SST and SIC. However, the change in global precipitation is dominated by the changes in the global SST rather than SIC, partly because tropical precipitation is mainly driven by local SST changes. The uncertainty of the model responses was also investigated through the analysis of the large-ensemble members. The relative roles of SST and SIC, together with their combined influence on Arctic amplification, are also discussed. All of these model datasets will contribute to PAMIP multi-model analysis and improve the understanding of polar amplification.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Samakinwa ◽  
Christian Stepanek ◽  
Gerrit Lohmann

Abstract. In this study, we compare results obtained from modelling the mid-Pliocene warm period using the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) with the two different modelling methodologies and sets of boundary conditions prescribed for the two phases of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), tagged PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. Boundary conditions, model forcing, and modelling methodology for the two phases of PlioMIP differ considerably in palaeogeography, in particular with regards to the state of ocean gateways, ice-masks, treatment of vegetation and topography. Further differences between model setups as suggested for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 consider updates to the concentration of trace gases: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), is specified as 405 and 400 parts per million by volume (ppmv) for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2, respectively. There are also minor differences in the concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) due to changes in the protocol of the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) from phase 3 to phase 4. Employing a single model across two phases of PlioMIP enables a better understanding of the impact that the various differences in modelling methodology between PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 have on model output. Yet, a dedicated comparison of COSMOS model output of PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 is not in the curriculum of model analyses proposed in PlioMIP2. Here, we bridge the gap between our contributions to PlioMIP1 (Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012) and PlioMIP2 (Stepanek et al., 2020). We highlight some of the effects that differences in the chosen mid-Pliocene model setup (PlioMIP2 vs. PlioMIP1) have on the climate state as derived with the COSMOS, as this information will be valuable in the framework of the model-model and model-data-comparison within PlioMIP2. We evaluate the model sensitivity to improved mid-Pliocene boundary conditions using PlioMIP's core mid-Pliocene experiments for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2, and present further simulations where we test model sensitivity to variations in palaeogeography, orbit and concentration of CO2. Firstly, we highlight major changes in boundary conditions from PlioMIP1 to PlioMIP2 and also the challenges recorded from the initial effort. The results derived from our simulations show that COSMOS simulates a mid-Pliocene climate state that is 0.29 K colder in PlioMIP2, if compared to PlioMIP1 (17.82 °C in PlioMIP1, 17.53 °C in PlioMIP2, values based on simulated surface skin temperature). On one hand, high-latitude warming, which is supported by proxy evidence of the mid-Pliocene, is underestimated in simulations of both PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. On the other hand, spatial variations in surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST) as well as the distribution of sea ice suggest improvement of simulated SAT and SST in PlioMIP2 if employing the updated palaeogeography. Our PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene simulation produces warmer SSTs in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean than derived from the respective PlioMIP1 climate state. The difference in prescribed CO2 accounts for 1.1 K of warming in the Arctic, leading to an ice-free summer in the PlioMIP1 simulation, and a quasi ice-free summer in PlioMIP2. Beyond the official set of PlioMIP2 simulations, we present further simulations and analyses that sample the phase space of potential alternative orbital forcings that have acted during the Pliocene and may have impacted on geological records. Employing orbital forcing, which differ from that proposed for PlioMIP2 (i.e. corresponding to Pre-Industrial conditions) but falls into the Mid-Pliocene time period targeted in the PlioMIP, leads to pronounced annual and seasonal temperature variations, which are not directly retrievable from the marine and terrestrial reconstruction of the time-slice.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Griffiths ◽  
Zeng Guang ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jane Mulcahy ◽  
Lee Murray ◽  
...  

<p>A grand challenge in the field of chemistry-climate modelling is to understand the connection between anthropogenic emissions, atmospheric composition and the radiative forcing of trace gases and aerosols.   The AerChemMIP model intercomparison project, part of CMIP6, focuses on calculating the radiative forcing of gases and aerosol particles over the period 1850 to 2100.  We present an analysis of the trends in tropospheric ozone budget in the UKESM1 and other models from CMIP6 experiments. We discuss these trends in terms of chemical production and loss of ozone as well as physical processes such as transport and deposition.  Where possible, AerChemMIP attribution experiments such as histSST-piCH4, will be used to quantify the effect of individual emissions and forcing changes on the historical ozone burden and budget.  For future experiments, we focus on analogous experiments from the SSP3-70 scenario, a ‘regional rivalry’ shared socioeconomic pathway involving significant emissions changes.</p>


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 2841-2856 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Miyazaki ◽  
K. Saito ◽  
J. Mori ◽  
T. Yamazaki ◽  
T. Ise ◽  
...  

Abstract. As part of the terrestrial branch of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA), which aims to clarify the role and function of the terrestrial Arctic in the climate system and assess the influence of its changes on a global scale, this model intercomparison project (GTMIP) is designed to (1) enhance communication and understanding between the modelling and field scientists and (2) assess the uncertainty and variations stemming from variability in model implementation/design and in model outputs using climatic and historical conditions in the Arctic terrestrial regions. This paper provides an overview of all GTMIP activity, and the experiment protocol of Stage 1, which is site simulations driven by statistically fitted data created using the GRENE-TEA site observations for the last 3 decades. The target metrics for the model evaluation cover key processes in both physics and biogeochemistry, including energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budgets. Exemplary results for distributions of four metrics (annual mean latent heat flux, annual maximum snow depth, gross primary production, and net ecosystem production) and for seasonal transitions are provided to give an outlook of the planned analysis that will delineate the inter-dependence among the key processes and provide clues for improving model performance.


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