scholarly journals The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1133-1160 ◽  
Author(s):  
David P. Keller ◽  
Andrew Lenton ◽  
Vivian Scott ◽  
Naomi E. Vaughan ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Removal Model

Abstract. The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>

scholarly journals The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP): Rationale and experimental design

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David P. Keller ◽  
Andrew Lenton ◽  
Vivian Scott ◽  
Naomi E. Vaughan ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Removal Model

Abstract. The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate threatening "severe, pervasive and irreversible" impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention on what is called Geoengineering, Climate Engineering, or Climate Intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). The majority of future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and nearly all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments that are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate "reversibility", the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation/reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.

scholarly journals Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Heck ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Planetary Boundaries ◽  
Climate Engineering ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon

Abstract. The planetary boundaries framework as proposed by Rockström et al. (2009) provides guidelines for defining thresholds in environmental variables. Their transgression is likely to result in a shift in Earth system functioning away from the relatively stable Holocene state. As the climate change boundary is already transgressed, several climate engineering methods are discussed, aiming at a reduction of atmospheric carbon concentrations to control the Earth's energy balance. Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage are part of most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We analyse the co-evolutionary interaction of societal interventions via tCDR and the natural dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle. Applying a conceptual modelling framework, we analyse how societal monitoring and management of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with the aim of staying within a "safe" level of global warming might influence the state of the Earth system with respect to other carbon-related planetary boundaries. Within the scope of our approach, we show that societal management of atmospheric carbon via tCDR can lead to a transgression of the planetary boundaries of land system change and ocean acidification. Our analysis indicates that the opportunities to remain in a desirable region within carbon-related planetary boundaries depend critically on the sensitivity and strength of the tCDR management system, as well as underlying emission pathways. While tCDR has the potential to ensure the Earth system's persistence within a carbon safe operating space under low emission pathways, this potential decreases rapidly for medium to high emission pathways.

scholarly journals How Will Earth Respond to Plans for Carbon Dioxide Removal?

Eos ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Lenton ◽  
David Keller ◽  
Patrik Pfister
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Removal Model

First Workshop of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project; Potsdam, Germany, 20–22 September 2016

scholarly journals Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 783-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Heck ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Planetary Boundaries ◽  
Climate Engineering ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon

Abstract. The planetary boundaries framework provides guidelines for defining thresholds in environmental variables. Their transgression is likely to result in a shift in Earth system functioning away from the relatively stable Holocene state. As the climate system is approaching critical thresholds of atmospheric carbon, several climate engineering methods are discussed, aiming at a reduction of atmospheric carbon concentrations to control the Earth's energy balance. Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage are part of most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We analyse the co-evolutionary interaction of societal interventions via tCDR and the natural dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle. Applying a conceptual modelling framework, we analyse how the degree of anticipation of the climate problem and the intensity of tCDR efforts with the aim of staying within a "safe" level of global warming might influence the state of the Earth system with respect to other carbon-related planetary boundaries. Within the scope of our approach, we show that societal management of atmospheric carbon via tCDR can lead to a collateral transgression of the planetary boundary of land system change. Our analysis indicates that the opportunities to remain in a desirable region within carbon-related planetary boundaries only exist for a small range of anticipation levels and depend critically on the underlying emission pathway. While tCDR has the potential to ensure the Earth system's persistence within a carbon-safe operating space under low-emission pathways, it is unlikely to succeed in a business-as-usual scenario.

Workflow and tools to analyse the PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anni Zhao ◽  
Chris Brierley
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Important Case ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Intercomparison Project

<p>Experiment outputs are now available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project’s 6<sup>th</sup> phase (CMIP6) and the past climate experiments defined in the Model Intercomparison Project’s 4<sup>th</sup> phase (PMIP4). All of this output is freely available from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Yet there are overheads in analysing this resource that may prove complicated or prohibitive. Here we document the steps taken by ourselves to produce ensemble analyses covering past and future simulations. We outline the strategy used to curate, adjust the monthly calendar aggregation and process the information downloaded from the ESGF. The results of these steps were used to perform analysis for several of the initial publications arising from PMIP4. We provide post-processed fields for each simulation, such as climatologies and common measures of variability. Example scripts used to visualise and analyse these fields is provided for several important case studies.</p>

scholarly journals Past climates inform our future

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 370 (6517) ◽  
pp. eaay3701
Author(s):  
Jessica E. Tierney ◽  
Christopher J. Poulsen ◽  
Isabel P. Montañez ◽  
Tripti Bhattacharya ◽  
Ran Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Earth System ◽  
High Carbon ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The World ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
High Carbon Dioxide

As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation—a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.

scholarly journals Limitations of the 1 % experiment as the benchmark idealized experiment for carbon cycle intercomparison in C<sup>4</sup>MIP

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 597-611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Hugh MacDougall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
Benchmark Experiment ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Idealized climate change simulations are used as benchmark experiments to facilitate the comparison of ensembles of climate models. In the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the 1 % per yearly compounded change in atmospheric CO2 concentration experiment was used to compare Earth system models with full representations of the global carbon cycle in the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). However, this “1 % experiment” was never intended for such a purpose and implies a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration at double the rate of the instrumental record. Here, we examine this choice by using an intermediate complexity climate model to compare the 1 % experiment to an idealized CO2 pathway derived from a logistic function. The comparison shows three key differences in model output when forcing the model with the logistic experiment. (1) The model forced with the logistic experiment exhibits a transition of the land biosphere from a carbon sink to a carbon source, a feature absent when forcing the model with the 1 % experiment. (2) The ocean uptake of carbon comes to dominate the carbon cycle as emissions decline, a feature that cannot be captured when forcing a model with the 1 % experiment, as emissions always increase in that experiment. (3) The permafrost carbon feedback to climate change under the 1 % experiment forcing is less than half the strength of the feedback seen under logistic experiment forcing. Using the logistic experiment also allows smooth transition to zero or negative emissions states, allowing these states to be examined without sharp discontinuities in CO2 emissions. The protocol for the CMIP6 iteration of C4MIP again sets the 1 % experiment as the benchmark experiment for model intercomparison; however, clever use of the Tier 2 experiments may alleviate some of the limitations outlined here. Given the limitations of the 1 % experiment as the benchmark experiment for carbon cycle intercomparisons, adding a logistic or similar idealized experiment to the protocol of the CMIP7 iteration of C4MIP is recommended.

scholarly journals Describing Earth System Simulations with the Metafor CIM

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1669-1689 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. N. Lawrence ◽  
V. Balaji ◽  
P. Bentley ◽  
S. Callaghan ◽  
C. DeLuca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Controlled Vocabularies ◽  
Common Information ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Common Information Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Near Term

Abstract. The Metafor project has developed a Common Information Model (CIM) using the ISO1900 series formalism to describe the sorts of numerical experiments carried out by the earth system modelling community, the models they use, and the simulations that result. Here we describe the mechanism by which the CIM was developed, and its key properties. We introduce the conceptual and application versions and the controlled vocabularies developed in the context of supporting the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We describe how the CIM has been used in experiments to describe model coupling properties and describe the near term expected evolution of the CIM.

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