scholarly journals Adaptation to a novel predator inDrosophila melanogaster: How well are we able to predict evolutionary responses?

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael DeNieu ◽  
William Pitchers ◽  
Ian Dworkin
Keyword(s):  
Natural Selection ◽  
Experimental Evolution ◽  
Phenotypic Selection ◽  
Ancestral Population ◽  
Wing Size ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Heritable Variation ◽  
Size And Shape ◽  
Evolutionary Trajectories ◽  
Short Term Prediction

Evolutionary theory is sufficiently well developed to allow for short-term prediction of evolutionary trajectories. In addition to the presence of heritable variation, prediction requires knowledge of the form of natural selection on relevant traits. While many studies estimate the form of natural selection, few examine the degree to which traits evolve in the predicted direction. In this study we examine the form of natural selection imposed by mantid predation on wing size and shape in the fruitfly,Drosophila melanogaster. We then evolve populations ofD. melanogasterunder predation pressure, and examine the extent to which wing size and shape have responded in the predicted direction. We demonstrate that wing form partially evolves along the predicted vector from selection, more so than for control lineages. Furthermore, we re-examined phenotypic selection after ~30 generations of experimental evolution. We observed that the magnitude of selection on wing size and shape was diminished in populations evolving with mantid predators, while the direction of the selection vector differed from that of the ancestral population for shape. We discuss these findings in the context of the predictability of evolutionary responses, and the need for fully multivariate approaches.

scholarly journals How phenotypic convergence arises in experimental evolution

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Simões ◽  
Inês Fragata ◽  
Josiane Santos ◽  
Marta A. Santos ◽  
Mauro Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evolution ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Common Environment ◽  
Evolutionary Trajectory ◽  
Trajectory Approach ◽  
Evolutionary Trajectories ◽  
Core Issue ◽  
Evolutionary Convergence ◽  
Phenotypic Convergence

AbstractEvolutionary convergence is a core issue in the study of adaptive evolution, as well as a highly debated topic at present. Few studies have analyzed this issue using a “real-time” or evolutionary trajectory approach. Do populations that are initially differentiated converge to a similar adaptive state when experiencing a common novel environment?Drosophila subobscurapopulations founded from different locations and years showed initial differences and variation in evolutionary rates in several traits during short-term (∼20 generations) laboratory adaptation. Here we extend that analysis to 40 more generations to analyze (1) how differences in evolutionary dynamics between populations change between shorter and longer time spans, and (2) whether evolutionary convergence occurs after sixty generations of evolution in a common environment. We found substantial variation in longer-term evolutionary trajectories and differences between short and longer-term evolutionary dynamics. Though we observed pervasive patterns of convergence towards the character values of long-established populations, populations still remain differentiated for several traits at the final generations analyzed. This pattern might involve transient divergence, as we report in some cases, indicating that more generations should lead to final convergence. These findings highlight the importance of longer-term studies for understanding convergent evolution.

Development of a Technique for Short-Term Prediction of Hydrometeors Using Advection and Physical Forcing.

1983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory S. Forbes ◽  
John J. Cahir ◽  
Paul B. Dorian ◽  
Walter D. Lottes ◽  
Kathy Chapman
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Physical Forcing ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Short Term Prediction

scholarly journals Short-Term Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4266
Author(s):  
Md. Shahriare Satu ◽  
Koushik Chandra Howlader ◽  
Mufti Mahmud ◽  
M. Shamim Kaiser ◽  
Sheikh Mohammad Shariful Islam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Infected Case ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Short Term Prediction ◽  
Machine Learning Models

The first case in Bangladesh of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was reported on 8 March 2020, with the number of confirmed cases rapidly rising to over 175,000 by July 2020. In the absence of effective treatment, an essential tool of health policy is the modeling and forecasting of the progress of the pandemic. We, therefore, developed a cloud-based machine learning short-term forecasting model for Bangladesh, in which several regression-based machine learning models were applied to infected case data to estimate the number of COVID-19-infected people over the following seven days. This approach can accurately forecast the number of infected cases daily by training the prior 25 days sample data recorded on our web application. The outcomes of these efforts could aid the development and assessment of prevention strategies and identify factors that most affect the spread of COVID-19 infection in Bangladesh.

scholarly journals Natural selection increases female fitness by reversing the exaggeration of a male sexually selected trait

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kensuke Okada ◽  
Masako Katsuki ◽  
Manmohan D. Sharma ◽  
Katsuya Kiyose ◽  
Tomokazu Seko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Selection ◽  
Natural Selection ◽  
Experimental Evolution ◽  
Genetic Correlations ◽  
Lifetime Reproductive Success ◽  
Fundamental Theory ◽  
Female Fitness ◽  
Male Trait ◽  
Flour Beetles ◽  
Male Specific

AbstractTheory shows how sexual selection can exaggerate male traits beyond naturally selected optima and also how natural selection can ultimately halt trait elaboration. Empirical evidence supports this theory, but to our knowledge, there have been no experimental evolution studies directly testing this logic, and little examination of possible associated effects on female fitness. Here we use experimental evolution of replicate populations of broad-horned flour beetles to test for effects of sex-specific predation on an exaggerated sexually selected male trait (the mandibles), while also testing for effects on female lifetime reproductive success. We find that populations subjected to male-specific predation evolve smaller sexually selected mandibles and this indirectly increases female fitness, seemingly through intersexual genetic correlations we document. Predation solely on females has no effects. Our findings support fundamental theory, but also reveal unforseen outcomes—the indirect effect on females—when natural selection targets sex-limited sexually selected characters.

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