scholarly journals COVID-19 FATALITY RISK: WHY IS AUSTRALIA LOWER THAN SOUTH KOREA?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter John Collignon ◽  
John Beggs
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Time Pattern ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Case Load ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Age Cohort ◽  
Significant Case ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Difference

Background: As the Covid-19 virus epidemic spreads, it is important to establish reliable estimates of fatality hazard rates. Australia and South Korea are ideal candidates for detailed consideration. Both have completed the first wave of the epidemic, they have extensive Covid-19 testing and tracking programs so that confirmed case load data are reliable, and neither country has had any significant case load stress in their hospital systems. Methods: For each country, mortality hazard models were estimated using a parameterized distributed lag model where the number of daily deaths was dependent on the number of confirmed cases in each of the preceding six weeks. Age cohort CFRs were also examined. Findings: We observed major difference in the mortality rates when comparing South Korea to Australia in both the simple age adjusted fatality rates and in the disease hazard curve. On a like-for-like basis, the CFR for South Korea appears to be close to double the Australian rate (aggregate; 2.4% vs 1.4%). Interpretation: Neither differences in the time pattern of the peaking of the case load of confirmed cases, nor differences in the size of age cohorts of confirmed cases explain the difference in mortality observed. We discuss possible explanations that point the way for further investigation. Funding: nil.

scholarly journals Hukum OKUN: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Tingkat Pengangguran di Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-44
Author(s):  
Mayra Astari ◽  
Lies Maria Hamzah ◽  
Arivina Ratih
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Difference

This study examined the validity of Okun's Law on the Indonesian economy by using the difference version of Okun's Law to obtain the Okun coefficient. This study uses the analysis of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The estimation results concluded that Okun's Law proved to have a negative and significant effect on the Indonesian economy because the variable economic growth was shown to influence the unemployment variable statistically.

scholarly journals Heatwave-Related Mortality Risk and the Risk-Based Definition of Heat Wave in South Korea: A Nationwide Time-Series Study for 2011–2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 5720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cinoo Kang ◽  
Chaerin Park ◽  
Whanhee Lee ◽  
Nazife Pehlivan ◽  
Munjeong Choi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Series Study ◽  
Related Mortality

Studies on the pattern of heatwave mortality using nationwide data that include rural areas are limited. This study aimed to assess the risk of heatwave-related mortality and evaluate the health risk-based definition of heatwave. We collected data on daily temperature and mortality from 229 districts in South Korea in 2011–2017. District-specific heatwave-related mortality risks were calculated using a distributed lag model. The estimates were pooled in the total areas and for each urban and rural area using meta-regression. In the total areas, the threshold point of heatwave mortality risk was estimated at the 93rd percentile of temperature, and it was lower in urban areas than in rural areas (92nd percentile vs. 95th percentile). The maximum risk of heatwave-related mortality in the total area was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.01–1.22), and it was slightly greater in rural areas than in the urban areas (RR: 1.23, 95% CI: 0.99–1.53 vs. RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01–1.20). The results differ by age- and cause-specific deaths. In conclusion, the patterns of heatwave-related mortality risk vary by area and sub-population in Korea. Thus, more target-specific heatwave definitions and action plans should be established according to different areas and populations.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Tourist Expenditure Per Capita in Thailand: Potential Implications for Sustainable Tourism

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6550
Author(s):  
Wanvilai Chulaphan ◽  
Jorge Fidel Barahona
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Sustainable Tourism ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Mass Tourism ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Per Capita

Tourism authorities in Thailand have consistently pursued profit-seeking mass tourism, resulting in the detriment of the natural resources in major tourist destinations. In response, sustainable tourism projects centered on preserving the environment have been established but neglect the financial needs of tour operators. The objective of this study was to investigate the determinants of tourist expenditure per capita in Thailand using a dataset consisting of 31 countries from 2010 to 2017. The analysis was based on an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and used a panel estimated generalized least square (ELGS). Generating such knowledge is essential for tourist authorities to develop profitable and sustainable tourism projects in tourist destinations whose natural resources have been affected by profit-seeking tourism. The tourism expenditure per capita is positively affected by word of mouth, income, and the rising prices in other major tourist destinations in Asia. However, it was negatively affected by relative levels of price and corruption. Sustainable tourism projects can be used to develop activities that will help distinguish Thailand from other tourism destinations in Asia. However, in implementing these sustainable tourism initiatives, the mark-up should be minimized to keep tourist prices in Thailand competitive.

scholarly journals Examining Eurozone Crisis and Unemployment Relationship Using Var Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-92
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Dapontas
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Eurozone Crisis ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This work examines the relationship between the Eurozone crisis and unemployment. We deploy distributed lag model using two binary (Crisis and crisis in another country) along with three (Government spending to GDP, Labor freedom, and urbanization) variables working as a long term factors applied on a six countries set (Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain respectively) spanning the period January1995-May 2012 in order to explain the unemployment change using VAR models on monthly data in contrast to longer frequency analyses. This innovative approach is determining the optimal lag length between unemployment and crises determining the time between turbulence and its effect to unemployment. The results show that optimal lag varies among two and eight months. Two variables seem to have negative effect on unemployment (Government spending to GDP, labor freedom) and one positive (urbanization).

Asymmetric Impact of Institutional Quality on Environmental Degradation: Evidence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12507
Author(s):  
Farrah Dina Abd Razak ◽  
Norlin Khalid ◽  
Mohd Helmi Ali
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
New Guidelines

This paper aims to discover the asymmetry impacts and co-integration between gross domestic product, financial development, energy use and environmental degradation by featuring institutional quality covering the Malaysia economy during the period from 1984 until 2017 using a nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag model. The results confirm the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for both linear and nonlinear analyses, thus verifying the relevance of symmetric and asymmetric EKC hypotheses for Malaysia. Further, this study verifies the attributes of financial development and institutional quality that mitigates the concern on CO2 emissions, but contradicting results were produced on energy use. The implication of this finding provides new guidelines for Malaysia authorities to consider the asymmetries in formulating environment-related policies to maintain environmental quality and achieve their sustainable development goals.

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