scholarly journals Examining Eurozone Crisis and Unemployment Relationship Using Var Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-92
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Dapontas
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Eurozone Crisis ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This work examines the relationship between the Eurozone crisis and unemployment. We deploy distributed lag model using two binary (Crisis and crisis in another country) along with three (Government spending to GDP, Labor freedom, and urbanization) variables working as a long term factors applied on a six countries set (Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain respectively) spanning the period January1995-May 2012 in order to explain the unemployment change using VAR models on monthly data in contrast to longer frequency analyses. This innovative approach is determining the optimal lag length between unemployment and crises determining the time between turbulence and its effect to unemployment. The results show that optimal lag varies among two and eight months. Two variables seem to have negative effect on unemployment (Government spending to GDP, labor freedom) and one positive (urbanization).

COINTEGRATED-BASED FORECAST OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.

scholarly journals The relationship between foreign direct investment, financial development and growth economic in Next-11 Countries: a PMG/ARDL estimation

Management ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-50
Author(s):  
Bilal Louail ◽  
Mohamed Salah Zouita
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Summary This study investigates the relationship between FDI, economic growth and financial development in the Next 11 countries. An analysis of the results was performed accordingly on the panel data gathered from the Next 11 countries from 1985 to 2019— using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation method and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model approach (ARDL). The results indicate an impact of both economic growth and financial development on the FDI flows to the study of countries during the period between 1985 and 2019 in the long run, while no such proof is affirmed in the short run. This study’s contribution provides a better understanding of the dynamic relationship between FDI, economic growth, and financial development by providing decision-makers to understand the nature of the dynamic association between the study variables. This study provides empirical evidence about the association between inflows of FDI, economic growth and financial development within the context of the Next-11 countries. The previous literature lacks empirical study on the relationship between variables of study for the Next-11 countries.

scholarly journals Price Levels and Poverty Nexus: A Case Study of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aleem Arshad ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh ◽  
Muhammad Hanif Akhtar ◽  
Muhammad Imran Mushtaq
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Price Levels ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Relationship

The study has examined the relationship between price levels and poverty over the period of 1982-2015 in Pakistan by employing Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). It is the pioneer empirical study on the topic in Pakistan. The study has revealed mixed findings between the price levels and poverty both at aggregated and disaggregated levels. The study has also suggested policies to reduce poverty according to the various price levels investigated in the assorted models.

scholarly journals Economic and Social Poverty Determinants in Sudan – Standard Analytical Study for the period (1980- 2019) by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL): المحددات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية للفقر في السودان– دراسة تحليلية قياسية للمدة (1980- 2019) باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL)

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (15) ◽  
pp. 83-65
Author(s):  
Hassan Ali Osman Fatur, Fadul Algheli Elsued Musa, Ibrahim Y Hassan Ali Osman Fatur, Fadul Algheli Elsued Musa, Ibrahim Y
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Study ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Relationship

The study aimed to measuring economic and social poverty determinants in Sudan, to achieve this goal a standard model for the relationship between the variables of the study was formulated and constructed during the period 1980 – 2019. The study problem lies in the main question: why poverty is increasing in Sudan although, many programs and tools for reducing poverty have been made by the State? The study assumed some hypotheses, the most important one is existence of inverse relationship having a positive impact statistically between unemployment and poverty in Sudan. The study has concluded that a positive relationship exists between unemployment and poverty, and a negative relationship exists between economic growth and poverty in Sudan. The study concluded of that there is an impact of the independent variables on poverty by a rate of 91%. The Researchers has recommended the necessity of a deflationary monetary policy to control inflation in order to reduce poverty rate.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Taxation, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa. A fresh evidence from combined cointegration test

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Delani Moyo ◽  
Ahmed Samour ◽  
Turgut Tursoy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between taxation, government expenditure and economic growth. is a widely debated issue in the literature. The aim of this research is to present a fresh evidence from the nexus of taxation, government expenditure and economic growth in for the period 1991-2018 in South Africa, using recently developed combined co-integration test. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model(ARDL) is utilized to examine coefficients between the variables in the short and long-run The newly advanced Bayer-Hacks (BH) combined co-integration approach is employed so as to verify the ARDL bounds result. The empirical results from ARDL model revealed that there is a positive and significant relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in both short and long run. In addition, the study shows that tax revenue has a significant positive relationship with the economic growth. Therefore, levels of taxation and government expenditure are favorable to the growth of economy in South Africa. The research proposed that decision makers in South Africa should pay more attention on Taxation and government expenditure policies and the gains from economic growth such as channel much of its expenditure towards the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which have great potentials of increasing the supply of the products. Which in turn leads to reduce prices and increase in the rates of employment. This would, also make the country’s exports prices competitive.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

Modelling labour demand in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (11) ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Kamila Radlińska ◽  
Krzysztof Jaros ◽  
Agnieszka Jakubowska ◽  
Anna Rosa
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Labour Demand ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Production Approach

The aim of the paper is to construct a long-term model of labour demand in Poland, in which the explanatory variables are the average gross salary and gross value added. Additionally, the authors attempt to detect labour hoarding. The study adopted the production approach, which used autoregressive distributed lag model with an ARDL-ECM error correction mechanism. The model parametres were estimated on the basis of quarterly data on the average number of persons employed, the average monthly gross salary and gross value added, all of which related to the period from the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2018. The data used in the study came from Statistics Poland publications. The proposed approach estimated the actual demand for labour. In the analysed period, a long-term relationship between the average employment, the average monthly gross salary and gross value added was observed. Employment was decreasing as the average salary was growing, and its increase was connected with the production growth. Moreover, short-term deviations of the value of the actual employment from the value of employment estimated by the model were observed on the labour market, which indicates labour hoarding could have been taking place. However, due to an insufficient number of observations, the occurrence of this phenomenon could not be fully confirmed.

Wagner’s Hypothesis: An Empirical Verification

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masudul Hasan Adil ◽  
Aadil Ahmad Ganaie ◽  
B. Kamaiah
Keyword(s):  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Relationship

This study explores the relationship between public expenditure (PE) and gross domestic product (GDP) to verify whether the Wagner’s hypothesis holds good in the Indian context. We cover the period from 1970 to 2013 and use econometric tools like Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) test to check the long-run and causal relationship among the variables. The results of the bounds test suggest that there exists cointegration between PE and GDP, but we found weak evidence for Wagner’s hypothesis as well.

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