Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings
Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for mon- itoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both sta- tistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios. These methods have been successfully used in social media and earthquake modelling, but are not yet widespread in epidemiology. By using domain-specific knowledge, we can both recreate transmission curves for malaria in China and Swaziland and disentangle the proportion of cases which are imported from those that are community based.