Heavy winter precipitation events with extratropical cyclone diagnosed by GPM products and trajectory analysis

<p>In Japan, Extratropical cyclone sometimes causes sporadic heavy snow in the coastal cites or heavy rains on snow covers in mountainous areas. Ando and Ueno (2015) identified that heavy precipitation events tend to occur with occluding cyclones. However, three-dimensional structure of precipitation system embedded in the cyclone system are difficult to capture by surface observation network over Japanese archipelago that are composed of complex coastal lines and mountains. This study identified heavy precipitation events during the cold seasons of 2014-2019 by two-day accumulated precipitation data at 137 stations of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The mechanisms for producing heavy precipitation in relation to the structure of an occluding extratropical cyclone were analyzed with the aid of the products of the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar onboard the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite and trajectory analysis on European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis data. Upper-ranked events with heavy precipitation were mostly due to extratropical cyclones, and many of them were in mature stages. In the top 50 ranked events, three south-coast cyclones were nominated, and relationships between the development of the mesoscale precipitation system and airstreams were intensively diagnosed. Hourly precipitation changes at stations that recorded heavy precipitation were primary affected by a combination of the warm conveyor belt (WCB), the cold conveyor belt (CCB) and the dry intrusion (DI). Wide-ranging stratiform precipitation in the east of cyclone center was composed of low-level WCB over the CCB and the upper WCB, and convective clouds around the cyclone center was associated with the upper DI over the WCB that provided an extreme precipitation rate at the surface, including formation of a band-shaped precipitation system. The convective cloud activities also contributed to moist air advection over the stationary stratiform precipitation areas recognized as the upper WCB. DPR products also identified deep stratiform precipitation in the cloud-head area behind the cyclone center with mid-level (near-surface) latent heat release (absorption) with increased potential vorticity along the CCB that was made feed-back intensification of the cyclone possible. (This study will be published in GPM special issue of JMSJ)　</p>

A Comparison of the Vorticity Dynamics Governing the Oceanic Bomb Cyclone of 4–5 January 1989 and the Super Derecho of 8 May 2009

Convection-allowing simulations of two warm seclusion cyclones are used to elucidate the vorticity dynamics that contribute to intensification of these systems. The rapidly intensifying oceanic “bomb” cyclone on 4–5 January 1989 and the super derecho on 8 May 2009 are the subject of this study. While these systems occupy different spatial scales, they both acquire characteristics of a warm seclusion cyclone. The aim of this study is to compare the basic structure and determine the dynamics driving increases in system-scale vertical vorticity during the intensification of these systems. Results from a vorticity budget show that system-scale stretching and the lateral transport of vertical vorticity to the cyclone center contribute to increases of system-scale low-level vertical vorticity during the intensification of the oceanic cyclone. The intercomparison of the oceanic cyclone and the super derecho shows that the relative contributions to increases in system-scale vertical vorticity by stretching and tilting as a function of height differ among the two cases. However, the lateral transport of vertical vorticity to the cyclone center is a key contributor to increases in low-level system-scale vertical vorticity for both cases. We hypothesize that this process may be common among a wide array of intense cyclonic systems across scales ranging from warm seclusion extratropical cyclones to some mesoscale convective systems.

Origin of Strong Winds in an Explosive Mediterranean Extratropical Cyclone

During 2–3 December 2012, the Black Sea and east coast of Romania were affected by a rapidly deepening Mediterranean cyclone. The cyclone developed a bent-back front along which short-lived (2–4 h) strong winds up to 38 m s−1 were recorded equatorward of the cyclone center. A mesoscale model simulation was used to analyze the evolution of the wind field, to investigate the physical processes that were responsible for the strong winds and their acceleration, and to investigate the relative importance of the stability of the boundary layer to those strong winds. The origin of the air in the wind maximum equatorward of the cyclone center was twofold. The first was associated with a sting jet, a descending airstream from the midlevels of the cloud head and the lower part of the cyclonic branch of the warm conveyor belt. The sting jet started to descend west of the cyclone center, ending at the frontolytic tip of the bent-back front. The second was a low-level airstream associated with the cold conveyor belt that originated northeast of the cyclone center and traveled below 900 hPa along the cold side of the bent-back front, ending behind the cold front. Both airstreams were accelerated by the along-flow pressure gradient force, with the largest accelerations acting on the sting-jet air before entering into the near-surface strong-wind area. The sensible heat fluxes destabilized the boundary layer to near-neutral conditions south of the cyclone center, facilitating downward mixing and allowing the descending air to reach the surface. Mesoscale instabilities appeared to be unimportant in the sting-jet formation.

A New Metric to Diagnose Precipitation Distribution in Transitioning Tropical Cyclones

A new coupled dynamic and thermodynamic metric is developed based on the Eady Moist Baroclinic Growth Rate (EMBGR), to discriminate between left-of-track (LOT) and right-of-track (ROT) precipitation distributions in transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs). LOT events pose a major flood risk even when a TC tracks along a coastline or just offshore, as flash flooding can occur hundreds of kilometers inland from the cyclone center. The EMBGR can improve human-produced quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) because it is dependent on relatively well-forecast large-scale mass fields. The ability of the EMBGR to identify precipitation distribution is first explored in a case study of TC Matthew (2016), using reanalysis and numerical model forecasts. Subsequently, a composite analysis of 36 years (1979–2014) of United States landfalling TCs using reanalysis data shows that the EMBGR is an effective discriminator between LOT and ROT distributions. The utility of the EMBGR is quantified using a pattern correlation analysis for both TC Matthew and the composites. Finally, a conceptual schematic is developed for LOT cases so that forecasters can most effectively utilize the EMBGR to improve human QPF skill during transitioning TCs.

Linking Atmospheric Rivers and Warm Conveyor Belt Airflows

Extreme precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones can lead to flooding if cyclones track over land. However, the dynamical mechanisms by which moist air is transported into cyclones is poorly understood. In this paper we analyze airflows within a climatology of cyclones in order to understand how cyclones redistribute moisture stored in the atmosphere. This analysis shows that within a cyclone’s warm sector the cyclone-relative airflow is rearwards relative to the cyclone propagation direction. This low-level airflow (termed the feeder airstream) slows down when it reaches the cold front, resulting in moisture flux convergence and the formation of a band of high moisture content. One branch of the feeder airstream turns toward the cyclone center, supplying moisture to the base of the warm conveyor belt where it ascends and precipitation forms. The other branch turns away from the cyclone center exporting moisture from the cyclone. As the cyclone travels, this export results in a filament of high moisture content marking the track of the cyclone (often used to identify atmospheric rivers). We find that both cyclone precipitation and water vapor transport increase when moisture in the feeder airstream increases, thus explaining the link between atmospheric rivers and the precipitation associated with warm conveyor belt ascent. Atmospheric moisture budgets calculated as cyclones pass over fixed domains relative to the cyclone tracks show that continuous evaporation of moisture in the precyclone environment moistens the feeder airstream. Evaporation behind the cold front acts to moisten the atmosphere in the wake of the cyclone passage, potentially preconditioning the environment for subsequent cyclone development.

Comparison of Two Automatic Identification Algorithms for Cyclones Affecting the Changjiang River–Huaihe River Valleys

In this study, two commonly used automated methods of detecting cyclones in the lower troposphere were compared with respect to various features of cyclone activity. The first method is based on the neighbor cyclone center point (NCP), while the second method is the cyclone area algorithm (CAA), which relies on the detection of the outermost enclosed contour to identify the horizontal structure of a cyclone. We obtained climatologies of cyclones that affected the Changjiang River–Huaihe River Valleys (CHV) of China (derived from ERA-Interim data for 1979–2015) and compared their structures. We found that the distribution of the track and the cyclogenesis locations of influential cyclones (ICs) showed a consistent spatial pattern between the NCP and CAA. However, there were still notable differences between the statistical features of cyclone activity derived by the NCP and CAA: (1) Only <46% of cyclones shared the same cyclone center between these two schemes. (2) ICs derived from the CAA typically had longer lifetimes and travel distances, with stronger central intensities than those from the NCP. (3) The track of ICs by the CAA with high resolution was consistent with that of ICs by the low-resolution CAA as well as the low-resolution NCP. However, compared to other methods, the high-resolution NCP presented large deviations during the early cyclone stage. The involvement of open systems in the NCP resulted in weaker cyclone intensities and increased uncertainty in cyclone tracking. On the other hand, more cyclones with stronger intensities and longer lifetimes coming from the midlatitudes were detected using the CAA. In addition, the short-lifetime ICs (<18 h) found using the CAA were active (39%) in the CHV, and were typically excluded by the NCP. These ICs had comparable center intensity and showed a good correlation with the occurrence of simultaneous rainfall events.