scholarly journals Model-based integration of citizen-science data from disparate sources increases the precision of bird population trends

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lionel R Hertzog ◽  
Claudia Frank ◽  
Sebastian Klimek ◽  
Norbert Röder ◽  
Hannah GS Böhner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hierarchical Models ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Bird Population ◽  
Benchmark Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Time Investment ◽  
Monitoring Programs ◽  
Online Databases

AbstractAimTimely and accurate information on population trends is a prerequisite for effective biodiversity conservation. Structured biodiversity monitoring programs have been shown to track population trends reliably, but require large financial and time investment. The data assembled in a large and growing number of online databases are less structured and suffer from bias, but the number of observations is much higher compared to structured monitoring programs. Model-based integration of data from these disparate sources could capitalize on their respective strengths.LocationGermany.MethodsAbundance data for 26 farmland bird species were gathered from the standardized Common Breeding Bird Survey (CBBS) and three online databases that varied with regard to their degree of survey standardization. Population trends were estimated with a benchmark model that included only CBBS data, and five Bayesian hierarchical models integrating all data sources in different combinations. Across models, we compared consistency and precision of the predicted population trends, and the accuracy of the models. Bird species body mass, prevalence in the dataset and abundance were tested as potential predictors of the explored quantities.ResultsConsistency in predicted annual abundance indices was generally high especially when comparing the benchmark models to the integrated models without unstructured data. The accuracy of the estimated population changes was higher in the hierarchical models compared to the benchmark model but this was not related to data-integration. Precision of the predicted population trends increased as more data sources were integrated.Main conclusionsModel-based integration of data from different sources can lead to improved precision of bird population trend estimates. This opens up new opportunities for conservation managers to identify declining populations earlier. Integrating data from online databases could substantially increase sample size and thus allowing to derive trends for currently not well-monitored species, especially at sub-national scales.

scholarly journals Bayesian Models for Analysis of Inventory and Monitoring Data with Non-ignorable Missingness

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke J. Zachmann ◽  
Erin M. Borgman ◽  
Dana L. Witwicki ◽  
Megan C. Swan ◽  
Cheryl McIntyre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hierarchical Models ◽  
Monitoring Program ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Models ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Statistical Concept ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Monitoring Programs ◽  
Inventory And Monitoring

AbstractWe describe the application of Bayesian hierarchical models to the analysis of data from long-term, environmental monitoring programs. The goal of these ongoing programs is to understand status and trend in natural resources. Data are usually collected using complex sampling designs including stratification, revisit schedules, finite populations, unequal probabilities of inclusion of sample units, and censored observations. Complex designs intentionally create data that are missing from the complete data that could theoretically be obtained. This “missingness” cannot be ignored in analysis. Data collected by monitoring programs have traditionally been analyzed using the design-based Horvitz–Thompson estimator to obtain point estimates of means and variances over time. However, Horvitz–Thompson point estimates are not capable of supporting inference on temporal trend or the predictor variables that might explain trend, which instead requires model-based inference. The key to applying model-based inference to data arising from complex designs is to include information about the sampling design in the analysis. The statistical concept of ignorability provides a theoretical foundation for meeting this requirement. We show how Bayesian hierarchical models provide a general framework supporting inference on status and trend using data from the National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring Program as examples. Supplemental Materials Code and data for implementing the analyses described here can be accessed here: https://doi.org/10.36967/code-2287025.

scholarly journals Model‐based integration of citizen science data from disparate sources increases the precision of bird population trends

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lionel R. Hertzog ◽  
Claudia Frank ◽  
Sebastian Klimek ◽  
Norbert Röder ◽  
Hannah G. S. Böhner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Citizen Science ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Science Data ◽  
Bird Population ◽  
Model Based

scholarly journals Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 599-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhys E Green ◽  
Yvonne C Collingham ◽  
Stephen G Willis ◽  
Richard D Gregory ◽  
Ken W Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bird Species ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Bird Population ◽  
Species Population ◽  
Climate Envelope ◽  
Climate Suitability ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Climatic Envelope

Twenty-five-year population trends of 42 bird species rare as breeders in the UK were examined in relation to changes in climatic suitability simulated using climatic envelope models. The effects of a series of potential ‘nuisance’ variables were also assessed. A statistically significant positive correlation was found across species between population trend and climate suitability trend. The demonstration that climate envelope models are able to retrodict species' population trends provides a valuable validation of their use in studies of the potential impacts of future climatic changes.

Drivers of population change in common farmland birds in Germany

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
MALTE BUSCH ◽  
JAKOB KATZENBERGER ◽  
SVEN TRAUTMANN ◽  
BETTINA GERLACH ◽  
RAINER DRÖSCHMEISTER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breeding Season ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Bird Population ◽  
Bird Populations ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Farmland Bird

SummaryFarmland bird populations in Germany are declining at a higher speed than species inhabiting other habitats. We studied potential causes for bird population changes based on data from standardised German breeding bird monitoring schemes. We related population trends to covariates describing the changes in the agricultural landscape in Germany, weather conditions during the breeding season and for some migratory species, conditions at stopover and wintering sites. Linear mixed effect models were used to analyse effect strength at species level and conclusions are drawn for the overall group of farmland bird species. The area of grassland and fallow land was shown to have the strongest positive effects and the area of maize and rapeseed the strongest negative effects on farmland bird population trends. The results obtained also indicate that despite the consistent influence of weather conditions during the breeding season, land-use changes had a stronger impact on bird populations than weather. Conditions at Sahel wintering sites did not show a consistent effect on population trends. Based on these findings the study quantitatively underpins and ranks key factors shaping farmland bird populations in Germany.

Towards the Automatic Acoustical Avian Monitoring System

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 17-38
Author(s):  
Robert Wielgat ◽  
Daniel Król ◽  
Tomasz Potempa ◽  
Paweł Kozioł ◽  
Agnieszka Lisowska-Lis
Keyword(s):  
Computer Program ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Power Supply ◽  
Data Transmission ◽  
Species Recognition ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Solar Panel ◽  
Wireless Data ◽  
Bird Population ◽  
Wireless Data Transmission

One of the crucial aspects of the environmental protection is continuous monitoring of environment. Specific aspect is estimation of the bird species population. It is particularly important for bird species being in danger of extinction. Avian monitoring programs are time and money consuming actions which usually base on terrain expeditions. Certain remedy for this can be automatic acoustical avian monitoring system, described in the paper. Main components of the designed system are: digital audio recorder for bird voices acquisition, computer program automatically recognizing bird species by its signals emitted (voices or others) and object-relational database accessed via the Internet. Optional system components can be: digital camera and camcorder, bird attracting device, wireless data transmission module, power supply with solar panel, portable weather station. The system records bird voices and sends the recordings to the database. Recorded bird voices can be also provoked by the attracting device. Application of wireless data transmission module and power supply with solar panel allows long term operation of digital sound recorder in a hard accessible terrain. Recorded bird voices are analysed by the computer program and labelled with the automatically recognized bird species. Recognition accuracy of the program can be optionally enhanced by an expert system. Besides of labelled sound recordings, database can store also many other information like: photos and films accompanying recorded bird voices/ sounds, information about localization of observation/ recordings (GPS position, description of a place of an observation), information about bird features and behaviour, meteorological information, etc. Database on the base of geographical/ geological digital maps can generate actual maps of bird population (presence, number of individuals of each species). Moreover data-base can trigger alerts in case of rapidly decreasing bird population. It is also possible to obtain new knowledge about bird species with data mining methods. The paper presents collected data on observed bird species (audio recordings, photos and films) as well as results of experiments testing particular components of the automatic acoustical avian monitoring system.

Seasonal Variations of Avifauna of Shallabug Wetland, Kashmir

1970 ◽  
pp. 20-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran A Dar ◽  
Mithas A Dar
Keyword(s):  
Research Work ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Migratory Bird ◽  
Current Status ◽  
High Power Field ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Bird Population ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
Vantage Points

The main thrust in this research work has been given on the evaluation of current status of Avifauna associated with Shallabug wetland. The main objectives were to evaluate the bird population fluctuation, to determine various threats to waterbirds and their habitats, and to present the remedial measures based on the key issues identified. For the purpose of present investigation, the study area was divided systematically into three study units of 700 m² each. Visual census method was used for the estimation of bird population. Visual counting was made with the help of high power field binocular (SG- 9.2) from respective vantage points. The birds were observed on the monthly basis in 2008 and the fluctuation in bird population was determined in different seasons: summer, autumn and winter.  The observations were made from 5:00 am to 7:00 am (when they come out from their resting place) and 6:00 pm to 7:00 pm (when they approach towards their resting place). The analysis of the results showed that the Shallabug Wetland is particularly important for migratory bird species and marsh land breeding species. The wetland was also found important for long distance migrants as a stopper site for feeding and resting. The bird population showed fluctuation with site differences as well as with changing seasons. Key words: Wetland, Shallabug, Avifauna, Fluctuation, Wetland managementDOI: 10.3126/jowe.v2i1.1853 Journal of Wetlands Ecology, (2009) vol. 2, pp 20-34

scholarly journals Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

Ecosphere ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Candan U. Soykan ◽  
John Sauer ◽  
Justin G. Schuetz ◽  
Geoffrey S. LeBaron ◽  
Kathy Dale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Hierarchical Models ◽  
Population Trends
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