Lessons learned from Vietnam’s COVID-19 response: the role of adaptive behavior change and testing in epidemic control

AbstractBackgroundVietnam has emerged as one of the world’s leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After prolonged zero-low transmission, a summer outbreak of unknown source at Da Nang caused the country’s first COVID-19 deaths, but was quickly suppressed. Vietnam recently reopened its borders to international travelers. Understanding the attendant risks and how to minimize them is crucial as Vietnam moves into this new phase.MethodsWe create an agent-based model of COVID-19 in Vietnam, using regional testing data and a detailed linelist of the 1,014 COVID-19 cases, including 35 deaths, identified across Vietnam. We investigate the Da Nang outbreak, and quantify the risk of another outbreak under different assumptions about behavioral/policy responses and ongoing testing.ResultsThe Da Nang outbreak, although rapidly contained once detected, nevertheless caused significant community transmission before it was detected; higher symptomatic testing could have mitigated this. If testing levels do not increase, the adoption of past policies in response to newly-detected cases may reduce the size of potential outbreaks but will not prevent them. Compared to a baseline symptomatic testing rate of 10%, we estimate half as many infections under a 20% testing rate, and a quarter as many with 40-50% testing rates, over the four months following border reopenings.ConclusionsVietnam’s success in controlling COVID-19 is largely attributable to its rapid response to detected outbreaks, but the speed of response could be improved even further with higher levels of symptomatic testing.

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The role of masks in reducing the risk of new waves of COVID-19 in low transmission settings: a modeling study

10.1101/2020.09.02.20186742 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Robyn M Stuart ◽

Romesh G Abeysuriya ◽

Cliff C Kerr ◽

Dina Mistry ◽

Daniel J Klein ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Initial Conditions ◽

High Mobility ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

New Wave ◽

Policy Environment ◽

Agent Based ◽

Low Transmission ◽

South Wales ◽

Community Transmission

Objectives: To evaluate the risk of a new wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a setting with ongoing low transmission, high mobility, and an effective test-and-trace system, under different assumptions about mask uptake. Design: We used a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model to create multiple simulations of possible epidemic trajectories that could eventuate over a five-week period following prolonged low levels of community transmission. Setting: We calibrated the model to the epidemiological and policy environment in New South Wales, Australia, at the end of August 2020. Participants: None Intervention: From September 1, 2020, we ran the stochastic model with the same initial conditions (i.e., those prevailing at August 31, 2020), and analyzed the outputs of the model to determine the probability of exceeding a given number of new diagnoses and active cases within five weeks, under three assumptions about future mask usage: a baseline scenario of 30% uptake, a scenario assuming no mask usage, and a scenario assuming mandatory mask usage with near-universal uptake (95%). Main outcome measure: Probability of exceeding a given number of new diagnoses and active cases within five weeks. Results: The policy environment at the end of August is sufficient to slow the rate of epidemic growth, but may not stop the epidemic from growing: we estimate a 20% chance that NSW will be diagnosing at least 50 new cases per day within five weeks from the date of this analysis. Mandatory mask usage would reduce this to 6-9%. Conclusions: Mandating the use of masks in community settings would significantly reduce the risk of epidemic resurgence.

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Assessing the Role of Daily Activities and Mobility in the Spread of COVID-19 in Montreal With an Agent-Based Approach

Frontiers in Built Environment ◽

10.3389/fbuil.2021.654279 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 ◽

Author(s):

Ouassim Manout ◽

Francesco Ciari

Keyword(s):

Public Transportation ◽

Research Question ◽

Daily Activities ◽

Risk Of Infection ◽

Mobility Patterns ◽

Agent Based ◽

Synthetic Population ◽

Community Transmission ◽

Business As Usual

Daily activities and mobility dynamics play a central role in the spread of COVID-19. Close physical interactions involved by certain daily activities help transmit the virus. Travel required by the spatial distribution of activities contributes to the propagation of the virus. In order to control and limit this propagation, it is critical to understand the contribution of daily activities to the dynamics of COVID-19. This paper investigates the connection between daily activities, their distribution in space and time, the characteristics of the individuals performing them, and the transmission of the virus. A business-as-usual agent-based simulation scenario of Montreal, Canada is used. To address this research question, we use two agent-based models: MATSIM and EPISIM. MATSIM simulates daily activities and mobility dynamics of the population. EPISIM simulates the spread of the virus in the population using contact networks computed by MATSIM. A synthetic population of Montreal is defined to replicate the main observed sociodemographic characteristics of Montrealers as well as their activity and mobility patterns. The definition of the synthetic population relies on various data sources: household travel survey, census, real estate, car ownership, and housing data. In the business-as-usual scenario, findings underline the significant role of home, work, and school activities in community transmission of COVID-19. Secondary activities, including leisure and shopping, also help spread the virus, but to a lesser degree in comparison with primary activities. The risk of infection in the workplace depends on the economic sector. Healthcare workers are, by far, the most exposed workers to the virus. Workplace infections mirror the gender-biased job market of Montreal. Most infections in the healthcare and educational services are among women. Most infections in the manufacturing, construction, transportation, and warehousing industries are among men. In the business-as-usual scenario where community transmission is high, primary and secondary school-aged children are found to be a major transmission vector of the virus. Finally, simulation results suggest that the risk of infection in the public transportation system is low.

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Can agent-based financial market forecast?: The role of agent engineering

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e428752008-001 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

Chen Shu-Heng ◽

Ying Fang

Keyword(s):

Financial Market ◽

Agent Based ◽

Market Forecast

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IMPROVING THE ROLE OF EXPERTS UNDER INDONESIAN CRIMINAL PROCEDURE LAW: LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE DUTCH LEGAL SYSTEM

Indonesia Law Review ◽

10.15742/ilrev.v8n1.385 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 109

Author(s):

Josua Sitompul

Keyword(s):

Legal System ◽

Criminal Procedure ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Criminal Procedure Law

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Naval Air Operations Within the Role of JFACC: Lessons Learned and Future Roles

10.21236/ada279592 ◽

1994 ◽

Author(s):

John M. Daly

Keyword(s):

Lessons Learned

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The Plausible role of Indian Traditional Medicine in combating Corona Virus (SARS-CoV 2): a mini-review

Current Pharmaceutical Biotechnology ◽

10.2174/1389201021666200807111359 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 21 ◽

Author(s):

Adithya J ◽

Bhagyalakshmi Nair ◽

Aishwarya S ◽

Lekshmi R. Nath

Keyword(s):

Specific Treatment ◽

Ocimum Sanctum ◽

Drug Candidate ◽

Asparagus Racemosus ◽

Traditional System ◽

Traditional Medicines ◽

Contagious Nature ◽

Community Transmission ◽

Novel Virus

: SARS-CoV 2 is a novel virus strain of Coronavirus, reported in China in late December 2019. Its highly contagious nature in humans has prompted WHO to designate the ongoing pandemic as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. At this moment, there is no specific treatment and the therapeutic strategies to deal with the infection are only supportive, and prevention aimed at reducing community transmission. A permanent solution for the pandemic, which has brought the world economy to the edge of collapse, is the need of the hour. This situation has brought intense research in traditional systems of medicine. Indian Traditional System, Ayurveda has a clear concept of the cause and treatment of pandemics. Through this review, information on the potential antiviral traditional medicines along with their immunomodulatory pathways is discussed. We have covered the seven most important Indian traditional plants with antiviral properties :Withaniasomnifera (L.) Dunal(family: Solanaceae),Tinosporacordifolia(Thunb.)Miers (family:Menispermaceae),Phyllanthusemblica L.(family:Euphorbiaceae),Asparagus racemosus L.(family:Liliaceae), Glycyrrhizaglabra L.(family:Fabaceae), Ocimum sanctum L.(family:Lamiaceae) and Azadirachta indica A.Juss(family:Meliaceae)in this review. An attempt is also made to bring into limelight the importance of dietary polyphenol, Quercetin which is a potential drug candidate in the making against the SARS-CoV2 virus.

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Conclusion

10.1093/oso/9780190699512.003.0007 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Jaroslav Tir ◽

Johannes Karreth

Keyword(s):

Civil War ◽

Conflict Management ◽

Political Violence ◽

Economic Incentives ◽

Economic Benefits ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Intergovernmental Organizations ◽

State Fragility ◽

International Environment

After summarizing the theoretical arguments and findings of this book, we discuss key lessons learned from our study. The international environment has a significant influence on civil war development and prevention. Amplifying their conflict-preventing influence on member-states, highly structured intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) often coordinate their activities, especially in the area of political violence and state fragility. We then identify a number of tangible, economic incentives as the main pathways of this influence. Overall, this book suggests that the economic benefits of peace provide a potent temptation—for both governments and rebels—to settle low-level armed conflict before it can escalate to full-scale civil war. With these lessons learned, we also identify suggestions for both the research into and practice of conflict management. The chapter closes by pointing to opportunities for making use of our findings to further capitalize on the role of highly structured IGOs in civil war prevention.

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Europe's Growth Champion

10.1093/oso/9780198789345.001.0001 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Marcin Piatkowski

Keyword(s):

Eastern Europe ◽

Central And Eastern Europe ◽

High Income ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

The West ◽

Success Stories ◽

Catch Up ◽

Inclusive Society ◽

First Time ◽

Global Growth

The book is about one of the biggest economic success stories that one has hardly ever heard about. It is about a perennially backward, poor, and peripheral country, which over the last twenty-five years has unexpectedly become Europe’s and a global growth champion and joined the ranks of high-income countries during the life of just one generation. It is about the lessons learned from its remarkable experience for other countries in the world, the conditions that keep countries poor, and challenges that countries need face to grow and become high-income. It is also about a new growth model that this country—Poland—and its peers in Central and Eastern Europe and elsewhere need to adopt to continue to grow and catch up with the West for the first time ever. The book emphasizes the importance of the fundamental sources of growth—institutions, culture, ideas, and leaders—in economic development. It argues that a shift from an extractive society, where the few rule for the benefit of the few, to an inclusive society, where many rule for the benefit of many, was the key to Poland’s success. It asserts that a newly emerged inclusive society will support further convergence of Poland and Central and Eastern Europe with the West and help sustain the region’s Golden Age, but moving to the core of the European economy will require further reforms and changes in Poland’s developmental DNA.

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