People who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago: A meta-analysis of data from 1997-2017 to inform interventions and computational modeling toward hepatitis C microelimination

Progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in the United States is not on track to meet targets set by the World Health Organization, as the opioid crisis continues to drive both injection drug use and increasing HCV incidence. A pragmatic approach to achieving this is using a microelimination approach of focusing on high-risk populations such as people who inject drugs (PWID). Computational models are useful in understanding the complex interplay of individual, social, and structural level factors that might alter HCV incidence, prevalence, transmission, and treatment uptake to achieve HCV microelimination. However, these models need to be informed with realistic sociodemographic, risk behavior and network estimates on PWID. We conducted a meta-analysis of research studies spanning 20 years of research and interventions with PWID in metropolitan Chicago to produce parameters for a synthetic population for realistic computational models (e.g., agent-based models). We then fit an exponential random graph model (ERGM) using the network estimates from the meta-analysis in order to develop the network component of the synthetic population.

Polymorphism of FABP3 gene and its effect on litter size and milk production of synthetic population bulgarian milk ewes

Aim. The purpose of this work was to study polymorphism of FABP3 (heart-type fatty acid binding protein) gene and its effect on litter size and milk production. The experiment included 30 ewes of Synthetic Population Bulgarian Milk breed from Institute of Animal Science – Kostinbrod. Methods. By PCR-RFLP method with endonuclease BseDI in SNP3 of FABP3 gene were detected two genotypes – GG and AG. Results. In SNP3 of FABP3 gene the frequency of allele G was 0.85 and the frequency of allele A was 0.15. The genotype GG was with frequency 0.70 and AG – with 0.30. Conclusions. In this study of ewes from SPBM breed, the presence of heterozygous genotype AG in SNP3 of the FABP3 was associated with increased litter size, while the presence of the homozygous genotype GG led to increased milk productivity during lactation. Keywords: sheep, FABP3 gene, litter size, milk production.

Assessing the Role of Daily Activities and Mobility in the Spread of COVID-19 in Montreal With an Agent-Based Approach

Daily activities and mobility dynamics play a central role in the spread of COVID-19. Close physical interactions involved by certain daily activities help transmit the virus. Travel required by the spatial distribution of activities contributes to the propagation of the virus. In order to control and limit this propagation, it is critical to understand the contribution of daily activities to the dynamics of COVID-19. This paper investigates the connection between daily activities, their distribution in space and time, the characteristics of the individuals performing them, and the transmission of the virus. A business-as-usual agent-based simulation scenario of Montreal, Canada is used. To address this research question, we use two agent-based models: MATSIM and EPISIM. MATSIM simulates daily activities and mobility dynamics of the population. EPISIM simulates the spread of the virus in the population using contact networks computed by MATSIM. A synthetic population of Montreal is defined to replicate the main observed sociodemographic characteristics of Montrealers as well as their activity and mobility patterns. The definition of the synthetic population relies on various data sources: household travel survey, census, real estate, car ownership, and housing data. In the business-as-usual scenario, findings underline the significant role of home, work, and school activities in community transmission of COVID-19. Secondary activities, including leisure and shopping, also help spread the virus, but to a lesser degree in comparison with primary activities. The risk of infection in the workplace depends on the economic sector. Healthcare workers are, by far, the most exposed workers to the virus. Workplace infections mirror the gender-biased job market of Montreal. Most infections in the healthcare and educational services are among women. Most infections in the manufacturing, construction, transportation, and warehousing industries are among men. In the business-as-usual scenario where community transmission is high, primary and secondary school-aged children are found to be a major transmission vector of the virus. Finally, simulation results suggest that the risk of infection in the public transportation system is low.

Live weight, Body condition score, body dimensions, and phenotypic correlations between them in sheep of Bulgarian dairy synthetic population

The aim of the present study was to establish live weight, Body condition score (BCS), body dimensions and phenotypic correlations between them in young female breeding animals of Bulgarian dairy synthetic population (BDSP). The object of research were 137 ewe lambs of the flock, bred at the Agricultural Institute in Stara Zagora for a period of 3 years. Live weight of animals and body dimensions were performed at 6, 9 and 18 months of age and Body condition score was assessed. In addition, the phenotypic dependences between indicators were calculated. The data were processed with Statistica software product. Based on the obtained results, it could be summarized that the live weight and bone system of the animals increased more intensively in the period from 6 to 9 months of age, which was accompanied by an increase in BCS. During the next period (after 9 months of age) there was a certain slowdown in the growth rate and a decrease in BCS, but an increase in live weight. The values of the two indicators at the age of 18 months however showed that the physiological condition of the animals was suitable for their inclusion in the breeding process. The highest values of phenotypic correlations were found between live weight, BCS and body dimensions at 6 months of age. At the next two ages (9 and 18 months), these dependencies declined. Live weight, body length, chest depth and croup width maintained a high level of correlation with the body volume. The highest phenotypic correlations between BCS and other indicators were established in animals at 6 months and the lowest ones at 9 months of age

HEREDITARY LOAD IN MEAT AND EGG CHICKENS OF VARIOUS ORIGIN

The aim of the study was to determine the spectrum and frequency of hereditary genetic defects of embryo development in meat and egg hens of different genetic origin, obtained during an experiment to study the effectiveness of crossing roosters of imported meat crosses with meat and egg females of domestic selection. All embryos that died during egg incubation were carefully examined to detect morphopathology. The main research method is pathomorphological analysis of genetic defects of dead embryos. The spectrum and frequency of morphological and anatomical hereditary defects of embryos were established during pathological and anatomical examination of incubation waste. During the autopsy of dead embryos, morphological disorders in the structure of the skeleton were determined, as well as various disproportions of its individual parts. In the meat-egg hens of the original maternal form during three years of monitoring with the highest frequency (2.11–6.06%) revealed such a defect in embryo development as "donald duck". This indicates that the bird is "contaminated" with a "harmful gene" that causes this abnormality. It is worth noting that in groups of chickens that were artificially inseminated with the semen of roosters of meat crosses, this hereditary defect was also recorded. In the descendants of the first and second generations, this anomaly was absent, possibly due to its transition to a heterozygous state. Thus, we can conclude that the allele that expresses this lethal has in its genotype a bird of the local subpopulation "K". Only in meat and egg hens of domestic selection a wide variety of double anomalies was found – four species with a frequency of 1.05–1.12%. Most likely, double abnormalities are the result of homozygosity of dead embryos simultaneously for two lethal genes. Whereas, in chickens of other studied groups, only single anomalies of dead embryos were found, among them "exencephaly", "crossed beak", "shortened beak". Genetic defect of embryos "exencephaly" was found in chickens of most groups. It is obvious that the gene that determines the manifestation of this anomaly is significantly distributed in meat and egg hens of domestic selection and roosters used crosses. And in chickens of the created synthetic population "K-5" only this hereditary defect is revealed. In meat and egg hens of subpopulation "K" (F10) of the original maternal form and in the group of females, which were inseminated with polysperm of meat cocks of the cross "Cobb-500", with a low frequency (0.78–1.12%) a single "crossed beak" anomaly was found among the frozen embryos. This anomaly was not detected in the offspring of the first generation and in groups of chickens inseminated with semen of overripe brood stock. And only in the "cobb" bird of the "K-51" group among the hereditary defects of the dead embryos was this anomaly identified. In meat-egg hens of F10 subpopulation "K" with a low frequency (1.12%) was found a hereditary defect of embryos "shortened beak". Then this anomaly was found only in the "cobb" bird of both the first and second generation. The data show that the hereditary factor that determines this defect, the descendants inherited from the cocks of the cross "Cobb-500". The level of genetic burden in meat and egg hens of the local subpopulation "K", depending on the generation, ranged from 5.26 to 8.99% and was wavy in nature. In the descendants of the first generation it is low – 1.64–4.17%, in the "ross" crossbreeds is much smaller compared to the "cobb". The descendants of the second generation of different origins also had a low hereditary burden – in the range of 4.35–5.88%, which does not exceed the maximum allowable species value of 8.0%. The results of the research showed that crossing meat-egg hens of domestic selection with roosters of imported meat crosses "Cobb-500" and "Ross-308" did not lead to significant "contamination" of genotypes of F1-F2 offspring with lethal genes. This indicates a low share in the heredity of the used offspring of hidden carriers of "defective" genes. This may be due to the high selection of birds of foreign crosses, which does not contribute to the accumulation in its gene pool of lethal genes that cause embryonic developmental abnormalities. In chickens of the created synthetic population "K-5" the level of genetic burden is low (3.03%), which indicates the relative "purity" of this bird from lethal genes.

Population synthesis in activity-based travel demand

A Synthetic Population is first part of creating travel demand model by using activity-based approach. Population synthesis is application of algorithms that expanded representative samples of people or household with characterises (such as gender, car ownership, age or ethnicity etc.) to entire area of researching. Because of complexity of people decisions before or during travel, one attribute is not enough to fully describe what factors have impact on them. Population synthesis iterate a set of attributes for each person in the sample and after expansion and assigning weights create simulated people or household with their characteristic. Basic components are marginal distribution targets of household and person attributes, household and person samples and algorithm for selecting the sample records into a synthetic population such that the attributes of that population match the marginal targets. Goal of this paper is to present population synthesis and her importance for activity-based approach in travel demand modelling. The paper will consist of introduction, literature overview, presenting benefits and complexity of population synthesis, discussion and conclusion.