‘Trained immunity’ from Mycobacterium spp. (environmental or BCG) exposure predicts protection from Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
ABSTRACTEndeavors to identify protective variables that could be potentially responsible for reduced COVID-19 impact on certain populations have remained a priority. Multiple attempts have been made to attribute the reduced COVID-19 impact on populations to their bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination coverage ignoring the fact that the effect of childhood BCG vaccination wanes within the first 5 years of life while most of the COVID-19 cases as well as deaths have been observed in adults especially the aged with comorbidities. Since the supposed desired protection being investigated could come from heterologous ‘trained immunity’ conferred by exposure to Mycobacterium spp. (i.e., environmental and BCG), it is argued that the estimates of the prevalence of ‘trained immunity’ of populations currently available as latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) of populations would be a better variable to evaluate such assertions. Indeed, when we analyze the European populations (twenty-four) as well as erstwhile East and West Germany populations completely disregarding their BCG vaccination coverage, the populations with higher trained immunity prevalence consistently display reduced COVID-19 impact as compared to their lower trained immunity prevalence neighbors. The incidences, mortality, and interim case fatality rates (i-CFR) of COVID-19 are found negatively correlated with the trained immunity of populations that have comparable underlying confounders not the BCG coverage per se. It is submitted that to decisively arrive at dependable conclusions about the potential protective benefit that can be gained from BCG vaccination in COVID-19, the ongoing/planned randomized controlled trials should consciously consider including measures of trained immunity as - a) all individuals immunized do not respond equally, b) small study groups of higher background trained immunity could fail to indicate any protective effect.