scholarly journals Covid spirals: a phase diagram representation of COVID-19 effective reproduction number Rt

Author(s):  
Raffaele Pesenti ◽  
Kenneth W Pesenti

In this paper, we propose a phase diagram representation of COVID-19 effective reproduction number R_t. Specifically, we express R_t as a function of the estimated infected individuals. This function plots a particular clockwise spiral that allows to easily compare the evolution of the number of new infected individuals at different dates and, possibly, provide some hints on the future progression of the infection.

1985 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 516-516
Author(s):  
A. Schultz ◽  
Y. -Y. Chuang ◽  
Y. A. Chang

PLoS ONE ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e0261650
Author(s):  
José Ulises Márquez Urbina ◽  
Graciela González Farías ◽  
L. Leticia Ramírez Ramírez ◽  
D. Iván Rodríguez González

The Effective Reproduction Number Rt provides essential information for the management of an epidemic/pandemic. Projecting Rt into the future could further assist in the management process. This article proposes a methodology based on exposure scenarios to perform such a procedure. The method utilizes a compartmental model and its adequate parametrization; a way to determine suitable parameters for this model in México’s case is detailed. In conjunction with the compartmental model, the projection of Rt permits estimating unobserved variables, such as the size of the asymptomatic population, and projecting into the future other relevant variables, like the active hospitalizations, using scenarios. The uses of the proposed methodologies are exemplified by analyzing the pandemic in a Mexican state; the main quantities derived from the compartmental model, such as the active and total cases, are included in the analysis. This article also presents a national summary based on the methodologies to illustrate how these procedures could be further exploited. The supporting information includes an application of the proposed methods to a metropolitan area to show that it also works well at other demographic disaggregation levels. The procedures developed in this article shed light on how to develop an effective surveillance system when information is incomplete and can be applied in cases other than México’s.


Open Physics ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Blume

AbstractA review of the current experimental situation on the search for a critical point in the QCD phase diagram and the onset of deconfinement is given. Ongoing (STAR, NA61), as well as previous (NA49) experiments are presented. Their main results up-to-now are summarized and their findings are put into a general context. The future experimental program (CBM at FAIR, MPD at NICA) is discussed as well.


Author(s):  
Georgiana Rosu ◽  
Angela Digulescu ◽  
Ion Candel ◽  
Alexandru Serbanescu ◽  
Anisia Culea-Florescu ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Georgiana Rosu ◽  
Angela Digulescu ◽  
Ion Candel ◽  
Alexandru Serbanescu ◽  
Anisia Culea-Florescu ◽  
...  

1978 ◽  
Vol 18 (05) ◽  
pp. 325-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.C. Nelson ◽  
G.A. Pope

Abstract Results of laboratory chemical floods are presented to show that equilibrium phases observed presented to show that equilibrium phases observed in test tubes are representative of phases produced in core flow experiments. Consequently, many performance characteristics of chemical floods can performance characteristics of chemical floods can be explained and predicted from equilibrium surfactant-brine-oil phase diagrams. An oil reservoir under chemical flooding can be visualized as a series of connected cells with phase equilibrium attained in each. Fluid flow from phase equilibrium attained in each. Fluid flow from one cell to the next is governed, not so much by initial properties of the oil, brine, or chemical slug and drive, as by properties of equilibrium phases formed from those fluids. Three types of equilibrium phase environment are defined. Results of interfacial tension measurements and laboratory flow experiments indicate that chemical floods should be designed to keep as much surfactant as possible for as long as possible in the "Type III" phase environment while the surfactant is traversing the reservoir. Introduction Recent research shows that when certain surfactants of interest in chemical flooding are equilibrated with brine and oil, the phases formed can be represented by relatively simple triangular phase diagrams. Furthermore, Healy and Reed phase diagrams. Furthermore, Healy and Reed revealed that surfactant-rich equilibrium phases, while immiscible with brine and oil, can displace waterflood residual oil effectively. Other papers involving phases of chemical flooding systems have appeared subsequently. This paper extends the use of phase diagrams in chemical flooding research by presenting laboratory evidence that the same phases, observed when surfactant, brine, and oil are equilibrated in sample tubes, form and transport in a core under a chemical flood. This interrelationship between surfactant-brine-oil phase behavior and the characteristics of chemical flooding is reminiscent of the interrelationship between alcohol-brine-oil phase behavior and the characteristics of alcohol flooding as described by Tabor et al. We discuss here some consequences of local phase equilibrium in an oil reservoir under a chemical flood. First, we review briefly the phase diagram representation. Next, visualizing the core as a series of connected mixing cells in each cell of which phase equilibrium is attained, we prescribe conditions for effluent liquids, based on phase diagrams for surfactant-brine-oil systems. Then, we compare results of flow experiments with those prescribed conditions. prescribed conditions. PHASE DIAGRAM REPRESENTATION PHASE DIAGRAM REPRESENTATION Following Healy et al., Fig. 1 illustrates three types of generalized phase diagram for three quasi-single components - surfactant, brine, and oil. These phase diagrams represent what we define as "phase environments." A surfactant-brine-oil system in any of the three phase-environment types can equilibrate as a single phase or as multiple phases, depending on the over-all composition of phases, depending on the over-all composition of the system. At high-surfactant concentrations, all phase environments ideally are single phase. At lower-surfactant concentrations in a Type II(-) phase environment, two equilibrium phases are phase environment, two equilibrium phases are present. As indicated by the tielines in the present. As indicated by the tielines in the two-phase region, one phase is essentially pure oil and the other is a homogeneous phase containing surfactant, brine, and oil. Here, we shall call such a phase a "microemulsion." We use this term only to describe a phase containing surfactant, brine, and oil apparently in thermodynamic equilibrium with one or more other phases. The term does not suggest a particular concept regarding the structure of that phase. Thus, in a Type II(-) phase environment, the maximum number of equilibrium phases is two. When surfactant, brine, and oil are plotted as in Fig. 1, the tielines in the two-phase region have a negative slope; hence the "II(-)" designation. SPEJ P. 325


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 3122
Author(s):  
Shah Hussain ◽  
Elissa Nadia Madi ◽  
Hasib Khan ◽  
Sina Etemad ◽  
Shahram Rezapour ◽  
...  

In this article, we propose a novel mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 involving environmental white noise. The new stochastic model was studied for the existence and persistence of the disease, as well as the extinction of the disease. We noticed that the existence and extinction of the disease are dependent on R0 (the reproduction number). Then, a numerical scheme was developed for the computational analysis of the model; with the existing values of the parameters in the literature, we obtained the related simulations, which gave us more realistic numerical data for the future prediction. The mentioned stochastic model was analyzed for different values of σ1,σ2 and β1,β2, and both the stochastic and the deterministic models were compared for the future prediction of the spread of COVID-19.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-16
Author(s):  
Răzvan Scripcaru ◽  
◽  
Angela Digulescu ◽  
Leontin Tuță ◽  
Alexandru Șerbănescu ◽  
...  

1985 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 304-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Schultz ◽  
Y. -Y. Chuang ◽  
Y. A. Chang

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