scholarly journals Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and around the world predicted by generalized SIR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Identification ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Identification Procedure ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
The World

New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, and after holidays in the middle of October 2021, were characterized by almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic dynamics in order to assess the possible maximum values of new cases, the risk of infection and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure was used to simulate and predict the dynamics of two new epidemic waves in Ukraine and one in the whole world. Results of calculations show that new cases in Ukraine will not stop to appear before November 2022. If the global situation with vaccination, testing and treatment will not change, the pandemic could continue for another ten years.

scholarly journals Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Poland and Germany predicted by generalized SIR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Identification ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Identification Procedure ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics

New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, which began in the autumn of 2021, are a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic dynamics in order to assess the possible maximum values of new cases, the risk of infection and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure was used to simulate and predict the dynamics of new epidemic waves in Poland and Germany. Results of calculations show that new cases in these countries will not stop to appear in 2022.

scholarly journals Simulation and predictions of a new COVID-19 pandemic wave in Ukraine with the use of generalized SIR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Identification ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Identification Procedure ◽  
Pandemic Wave ◽  
Epidemic Wave

A new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, was characterized by almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the dynamics of the epidemic in order to assess the possible maximum values of new cases, the risk of infection and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure was used to simulate and predict the dynamics of this epidemic wave. The new COVID-19 epidemic wave in Ukraine will begin to subside in mid-October 2021, but its duration will be quite long. Unfortunately, new cases may appear by the summer of 2022.

scholarly journals Will a natural collective immunity of Ukrainians restrain new COVID-19 waves?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Parameter Identification ◽  
Real Number ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Identification Procedure ◽  
Optimal Value ◽  
The Difference

The visible and real sizes the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine were estimated with the use of the number of laboratory-confirmed cases (accumulated in May and June 2021), the generalized SIR-model and the parameter identification procedure taking into account the difference between registered and real number of cases. The calculated optimal value of the visibility coefficient shows that most Ukrainians have already been infected with the coronavirus, and some more than once, i.e., Ukrainians have probably achieved a natural collective immunity. Nevertheless, a large number of new strains and short-lived antibodies can cause new pandemic waves. In particular, the beginning of such a wave, we probably see in Ukraine in mid-July 2021. The further dynamics of the epidemic and its comparison with the results of mathematical modeling will be able to answer many important questions about the natural immunity and effectiveness of vaccines.

scholarly journals Clinical Differences between COVID-19 and a COVID-Like Syndrome

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2519
Author(s):  
Pierpaolo Di Micco ◽  
Giuseppe Camporese ◽  
Vincenzo Russo ◽  
Giuseppe Cardillo ◽  
Egidio Imbalzano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
False Negative ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Similar Group ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Hospital Workers ◽  
Serological Tests ◽  
Clinical Presentations ◽  
The World ◽  
Lung Failure ◽  
The Difference

COVID-19 is an infection due to SARS-CoV-2; this virus has been identified as the cause of the present pandemic. Several typical characteristics are present in this infection, in particular pneumonia with possible lung failure, but atypical clinical presentations are being described daily by physicians around the world. Ground-glass opacities with pneumonia are the most common and dangerous presentations of the COVID-19 disease, and they are usually associated with positive nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) tests with detectable SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA. Compared to the general population, hospital workers have been at a greater risk of infection ever since the first patients were hospitalized. However, hospital workers have also been reported as having COVID-like symptoms despite repeated negative swab tests but having tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies with serological tests. We can postulate that a COVID-like syndrome is possible, in particular in hospital workers, that is characterized by symptoms similar to those of COVID-19, but with repeated negative nasopharyngeal swabs. These repeated negative NSPs make the difference in daily clinical management with people that experienced a single false negative nasopharyngeal swab; furthermore, a clear clinical differentiation of these situations is still lacking in the literature. For this reason, here, we report our main findings from a cohort of patients with a COVID-like syndrome compared to a similar group affected by typical COVID-19.

scholarly journals Analysis of Dynamical Behavior for Epidemic Disease COVID-19 with Application

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 568-577
Author(s):  
Dr. Maysoon M. Aziz, Et. al.
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear System ◽  
Power Spectrum ◽  
Dynamical Behavior ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
The World ◽  
Non Linear System

In this paper, we will use the differential equations of the SIR model as a non-linear system, by using the Runge-Kutta numerical method to calculate simulated values for known epidemiological diseases related to the time series including the epidemic disease COVID-19, to obtain hypothetical results and compare them with the dailyreal statisticals of the disease for counties of the world and to know the behavior of this disease through mathematical applications, in terms of stability as well as chaos in many applied methods. The simulated data was obtained by using Matlab programms, and compared between real data and simulated datd were well compatible and with a degree of closeness. we took the data for Italy as an application.  The results shows that this disease is unstable, dissipative and chaotic, and the Kcorr of it equal (0.9621), ,also the power spectrum system was used as an indicator to clarify the chaos of the disease, these proves that it is a spread,outbreaks,chaotic and epidemic disease .

scholarly journals Are people excessively pessimistic about the risk of coronavirus infection?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jocelyn Raude ◽  
Marion Debin ◽  
Cécile Souty ◽  
Caroline Guerrisi ◽  
Clement Turbelin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Health Threat ◽  
Recent Emergence ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Future Consequences ◽  
Large Survey

The recent emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 in China has raised the spectre of a novel, potentially catastrophic pandemic in both scientific and lay communities throughout the world. In this particular context, people have been accused of being excessively pessimistic regarding the future consequences of this emerging health threat. However, consistent with previous research in social psychology, a large survey conducted in Europe in the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic shows that the majority of respondents was actually overly optimistic about the risk of infection.

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