scholarly journals Simple decision rules to predict local surges in COVID-19 hospitalizations during the winter and spring of 2022

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Yaesoubi ◽  
Shiying You ◽  
Qin Xi ◽  
Nicolas A Menzies ◽  
Ashleigh Tuite ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
State Level ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Reasonable Accuracy ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
Novel Variants ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Makers

Low rates of vaccination, emergence of novel variants of SARS-CoV-2, and increasing transmission relating to seasonal changes leave many U.S. communities at risk for surges of COVID-19 during the winter and spring of 2022 that might strain hospital capacity, as in previous waves. The trajectories of COVID-19 hospitalizations during this period are expected to differ across communities depending on their age distributions, vaccination coverage, cumulative incidence, and adoption of risk mitigating behaviors. Yet, existing predictive models of COVID-19 hospitalizations are almost exclusively focused on national- and state-level predictions. This leaves local policymakers in urgent need of tools that can provide early warnings about the possibility that COVID-19 hospitalizations may rise to levels that exceed local capacity. In this work, we develop simple decision rules to predict whether COVID-19 hospitalization will exceed the local hospitalization capacity within a 4- or 8-week period if no additional mitigating strategies are implemented during this time. These decision rules use real-time data related to hospital occupancy and new hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, and when available, genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. We showed that these decision rules present reasonable accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity (all ≥80%) in predicting local surges in hospitalizations under numerous simulated scenarios, which capture substantial uncertainties over the future trajectories of COVID-19 during the winter and spring of 2022. Our proposed decision rules are simple, visual, and straightforward to use in practice by local decision makers without the need to perform numerical computations.

scholarly journals International and regional variation in the prevalence of common mental disorders: do we need more surveys?

2004 ◽  
Vol 184 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Weich ◽  
Ricardo Araya
Keyword(s):  
Mental Disorders ◽  
Regional Variation ◽  
Common Mental Disorders ◽  
Psychiatric Morbidity ◽  
Epidemiological Survey ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Makers ◽  
Geographical Locations

Vicente and his colleagues present admirably concise findings from a large epidemiological survey of non-psychotic psychiatric morbidity in four different geographical locations in Chile (Vicente et al, 2004, this issue). Without gainsaying the importance of psychiatric morbidity in that country, many readers, including local decision-makers, may find it difficult to assimilate these results.

scholarly journals Coroners' records on suicide mortality in Montréal: limitations and implications in suicide prevention strategies

2014 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Houle ◽  
C Guillou-Ouellette
Keyword(s):  
Suicide Prevention ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Other ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
The People ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Makers ◽  
Very High

Introduction In Montréal, the characteristics of suicide cases may vary between different areas. The information collected by coroners during their investigations of suicides could be used to support local suicide-prevention planning actions. Methods This study analyzes all coroners' records on suicide in Montréal from 2007 to 2009 to 1. determine the usefulness of the data available; 2. develop a profile of cases; 3. examine local differences by comparing two areas, one with the highest suicide rate and the other with the lowest. Results The data collected revealed the lack of a systematic, standardized procedure for recording information about deaths by suicide. The rates of missing data varied, but were very high for antecedents of suicide attempts and recent events that could have precipitated the suicide. We observed differences in the characteristics of suicide cases according to area of residence. Conclusion By adopting a standardized procedure for collecting information on cases of suicide, coroners could provide local decision makers with a more accurate portrait of the people who die by suicide in their area. Local adjustments may improve suicide-prevention strategies.

Entrepreneurial ecosystems: a systematic review

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 545-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parisa Maroufkhani ◽  
Ralf Wagner ◽  
Wan Khairuzzaman Wan Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Information Exchange ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Entrepreneurial Ecosystems ◽  
Science Index ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
State Of Research ◽  
Local Decision Makers ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe literature on entrepreneurial ecosystems is fragmented, and yet, no studies have paid attention to integrating the available studies. The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic review of contributions related to entrepreneurial ecosystems.Design/methodology/approachThis literature review evaluates studies that are covered in the Web of Science index.FindingsIn addition to the recent state of research (covering industries, geographical scopes, methodologies, etc.), this study provides an extension of Isenberg’s (2011) model of entrepreneurial ecosystems.Research limitations/implicationsA new avenue arises for both conceptual and empirical research by emphasizing crowdsourcing as a contributing element for the entrepreneurial ecosystem. Future studies can evaluate the effectiveness of different types of crowdsourcing profoundly to make sure whether creating a promising ecosystem all types of crowdsourcing have a similar value or impact.Practical implicationsFor public policy and local decision-makers, both collaboration opportunities and interaction interfaces between the stakeholders of the entrepreneurial need to be reconsidered in the design of entrepreneurial ecosystems.Social implicationsHigher degrees of collaboration, information exchange and innovation are likely to yield favorable entrepreneurship environments.Originality/valueNovelty of this study arises from integrating crowdsourcing theory in the systematic review of entrepreneurial ecosystems.

scholarly journals Assessing subsoil void hazards along a road system using H/V measurements, ERTs and IPTs to support local decision makers

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 282-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronica Pazzi ◽  
Mattia Ceccatelli ◽  
Teresa Gracchi ◽  
Elena Benedetta Masi ◽  
Riccardo Fanti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Makers ◽  
Road System

scholarly journals Urban resilience in the making? The governance of critical infrastructures in German cities

Urban Studies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (11) ◽  
pp. 2353-2371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jochen Monstadt ◽  
Martin Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Critical Infrastructures ◽  
Urban Resilience ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Utility Companies ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
German Cities ◽  
Local Decision Makers

Over the last decade, the protection of urban infrastructures has become a focus in German security policies. These point not solely to the multiple external infrastructural threats (e.g. natural disasters, terrorist and cyber-attacks), but also to the endogenous risks of cascading failures across geographical and functional borders that arise from interlocking and often mutually dependent infrastructures. As geographical nodes in infrastructurally mediated flows, cities are considered to be particularly vulnerable to infrastructure breakdowns. Their capability to prevent and to prepare for infrastructural failures, and thus to manage infrastructural interdependencies, is seen as a major prerequisite for resilient societies. However, as our article demonstrates, the institutional capacity of the local authorities and utility companies for risk mitigation and preparedness is limited. Drawing on qualitative research in selected German cities, we argue that the governance of critical infrastructures involves considerable challenges: it overarches different, often fragmented, policy domains and territories and institutionally unbundled utility (sub-) domains. Moreover, risk mitigation and preparedness are usually not based on experience from past events, but on destructive scenarios. They involve considerable uncertainty and contestations among local decision-makers. Interviews with local experts indicate that effective governance of critical infrastructures requires more regulatory efforts by national policies. At the same time, they point to the need for identifying and assessing place-based vulnerabilities, for defining locally differentiated mitigation and preparedness strategies and for the training of local utility companies as well as crisis management.

Developing Regional Input-Output Models from the U.N. Format Adopted by the U.S. in the New 1972 Input-Output Model

1980 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis DiPietre ◽  
Rodney L. Walker ◽  
David R. Martella
Keyword(s):  
Regional Growth ◽  
National Level ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Input Output ◽  
The People ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Makers

Since the mid-1940s, interest in the interrelationships of subnational economies has been growing. Part of this interest flows from a realization of the need to manage regional growth and mitigate the effects of economically unstable components of regional economies on the welfare of the people within the region. Aggregated macroeconomic models applied at the national level commonly provide insufficient information about their components, the regional economies. This lack has led to the development of state and regional macro models which can provide specific information relevant to state or local decision makers. Such information includes the availability of regional resources necessary to support and expand regional production and the impacts of changes in demand on the welfare of local inhabitants. These models are also useful in estimating the impacts of national policy on regional economies. The development of regional input-output models is an example of the trend toward fuller understanding of regional economies. State or regional input-output models can be constructed either by survey or by estimation from the national input-output model. Time and money constraints have increased the popularity of the latter approach among regional economists.

scholarly journals Biomonitoring of Mercury in Hair among a Group of Eritreans (Africa)

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Luisa Astolfi ◽  
Carmela Protano ◽  
Elisabetta Marconi ◽  
Lorenzo Massimi ◽  
Daniel Piamonti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Promotion ◽  
Gold Deposits ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Hair Mercury ◽  
Hair Samples ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Promotion Campaigns ◽  
Local Decision Makers ◽  
Gold Mercury

Small-scale or artisanal mining, using gold-mercury amalgamation to extract gold from ore, is a significant source of exposure for the workers and nearby populations. Few studies on hair mercury (Hg) have been conducted in Africa despite the fact that Africa has several gold deposits. No studies have been conducted in Eritrea that is one of the emerging gold producing countries in Africa. The aim of the study was to assess the Hg concentration in hair samples (n = 120) of a population living in Asmara, capital of Eritrea, and to evaluate the influence of some factors on the Hg levels in hair. Information on age, height, weight, occupation, smoking and fish consumption of participants were collected via questionnaire. Hair Hg concentration was significantly higher among women compared to men (p < 0.001) and among women preparing spicy products in Medeber market compared to those who did other jobs (p = 0.010). These results highlight the need for routine biomonitoring surveys and for health promotion campaigns devoted to local decision makers and workers.

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