scholarly journals Forecast of omicron wave time evolution

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Schlickeiser ◽  
Martin Kroger
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Hospitalization Rate ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
German Health ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Starting Date

Adopting an early doubling time of three days for the rate of new infections with the omicron mutant the temporal evolution of the omicron wave in different countries is predicted. The predictions are based on the susceptible-infectious-recovered/removed (SIR) epidemic compartment model with a constant stationary ratio k=mu(t)/a(t) between the infection (a(t)) and recovery (mu(t)) rate. The fixed early doubling time then uniquely relates the initial infection rate a0 to the ratio k, which therefore determines the full temporal evolution of the omicron waves. For each country three scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, intermediate) are considered and the resulting pandemic parameters are calculated. These include the total number of infected persons, the maximum rate of new infections, the peak time and the maximum 7-day incidence per 100000 persons. Among the considered European countries Denmark has the smallest omicron peak time and the recently observed saturation of the 7-day incidence value at 2478 is in excellent agreement with the prediction in the optimistic scenario. For Germany we predict peak times of the omicron wave ranging from 32 to 38 and 45 days after the start of the omicron wave in the optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic scenario, respectively, with corresponding maximum SDI values of 7090, 13263 and 28911, respectively. Adopting Jan 1st, 2022 as the starting date our predictions implies that the maximum of the omicron wave is reached between Feb 1 and Feb 15, 2022. Rather similar values are predicted for Switzerland. Due to an order of magnitude smaller omicron hospitalization rate, due to the high percentage of vaccinated and boostered population, the German health system can cope with maximum omicron SDI value of 2800 which is about a factor 2.5 smaller than the maximum omicron SDI value 7090 in the optimistic case. By either reducing the duration of intensive care during this period of maximum, and/or by making use of the nonuniform spread of the omicron wave across Germany, it seems that the German health system can barely cope with the omicron wave avoiding triage decisions. The reduced omicron hospitalization rate also causes significantly smaller mortality rates compared to the earlier mutants in Germany. In the optimistic scenario one obtains for the total number of fatalities 7445 and for the maximum death rate 418 per day which are about one order of magnitude smaller than the beta fatality rate and total number.

Health of the offspring of immigrants: the BaBi birth cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 298-300
Author(s):  
Céline Miani ◽  
Oliver Razum ◽  
Jacob Spallek
Keyword(s):  
Early Childhood ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Cultural Diversity ◽  
Health System ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Migration Background ◽  
Heterogeneous Population ◽  
Birth Cohort Study ◽  
German Health ◽  
Health Related

Abstract Children with a migration background are more at risk of health-related problems than those without a migration background. The German health system still does not adequately meet the challenges of on increasingly heterogeneous population, not least due to a lack of adequate epidemiological data and models. The BaBi study contributes to gaining new insights in the development of health inequalities due to cultural diversity in Germany, with a focus on pregnancy and early childhood.

On the evolution of thermally driven shallow cavity flows

1994 ◽  
Vol 259 ◽  
pp. 107-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. G. Daniels ◽  
P. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Numerical Solutions ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Lateral Wall ◽  
Cavity Flows ◽  
Thermally Driven ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Final Steady State ◽  
Shallow Cavity

The temporal evolution of thermally driven flow in a shallow laterally heated cavity is studied for the nonlinear regime where the Rayleigh number R based on cavity height is of the same order of magnitude as the aspect ratio L (length/height). The horizontal surfaces of the cavity are assumed to be thermally insulating. For a certain class of initial conditions the evolution is found to occur over two non-dimensional timescales, of order one and of order L2. Analytical solutions for the motion throughout most of the cavity are found for each of these timescales and numerical solutions are obtained for the nonlinear time-dependent motion in end regions near each lateral wall. This provides a complete picture of the evolution of the steady-state flow in the cavity for cases where instability in the form of multicellular convection does not occur. The final steady state evolves on a dimensional timescale proportional to l2/κ, where l is the length of the cavity, κ is the thermal diffusivity of the fluid and the constant of proportionality depends on the ratio R/L.

Time-Resolved Transport of Electrons and Holes in Conjugated Polymers

1999 ◽  
Vol 561 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Pinner ◽  
R. H. Friend ◽  
N. Tessler
Keyword(s):  
Conjugated Polymers ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Exponential Tail ◽  
Time Resolved ◽  
Light Emitting ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Initial Rise ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Slow Rise ◽  
Polymer Light Emitting Diodes

ABSTRACTDetailed experimental and theoretical analysis of the pulsed excitation of polymer light emitting diodes is presented. We find a set of universal transient features for different device configurations which can be reproduced using our phenomenological numerical model. We find that the temporal evolution of the electroluminescence can be characterised by five main features: i) a delay followed by; ii) fast initial rise at turn-on followed by; iii) a slow rise (slower by at least one order of magnitude); iv) fast modulation (<15ns, unresolved) at turn-off followed by v) a long-lived exponential tail. We suggest a method for extracting mobility values which is found to be compatible with CW drive schemes. Mobilities for holes and electrons are extracted for a poly(p-phenylenevinylene) co-polymer and poly(di-octyl fluorene).

scholarly journals On the interdependence of ambulatory and hospital care in the German health system

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tugba Büyükdurmus ◽  
Thomas Kopetsch ◽  
Hendrik Schmitz ◽  
Harald Tauchmann
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Hospital Care ◽  
German Health

scholarly journals Monitoring the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, South Korea, Italy and USA through the net relative rate of infection of the total number of confirmed cases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao Manoel Losada Moreira
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Relative Rate ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
And Control ◽  
Near Future

Managing the COVID-19 pandemic in the middle of the events requires real-time monitoring of its evolution to perform analyses of containment actions and to project near future scenarios. This work proposes a scheme to monitor the temporal evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic using the time series of its total number of confirmed cases in a given region. The monitored parameter is the spread rate obtained from this time series (day-1) expressed in %/day. The scheme's capability is verified using the epidemic data from China and South Korea. Its projection capability is shown for Italy and United States with scenarios for the ensuing 30 days from April 2nd, 2020. The spread rate (relative rate of change of the time series) is very sensitive to sudden changes in the epidemic evolution and can be used to monitor in real-time the effectiveness of containment actions. The logarithm of this variable allows identifying clear trends of the evolution of the COVID-10 epidemic in these countries. The spread rate calculated from the number of confirmed cases of infection is interpreted as a probability per unit of time of virus infection and containment actions. Its product with the number of confirmed cases of infections yields the number of new cases per day. The stabilization and control of the epidemic for China and South Korea appear to occur for values of this parameter below 0.77 %/day (doubling time of 90 days).

scholarly journals ARIA guideline 2019: treatment of allergic rhinitis in the German health system

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (01) ◽  
pp. 22-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Klimek ◽  
C. Bachert ◽  
O. Pfaar ◽  
S. Becker ◽  
T. Bieber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Allergic Rhinitis ◽  
Health System ◽  
German Health

German health system makes  3.9bn surplus in first three quarters of 2011

BMJ ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 343 (dec09 2) ◽  
pp. d8047-d8047
Author(s):  
N. Stafford
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
German Health
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