Afrotropical Tree Communities May Have Distinct Responses to Forecasted Climate Change

AbstractMore refined knowledge of how tropical forests respond to changes in the abiotic environment and human disturbance is necessary to mitigating climate change, maintain biodiversity, and preserve ecosystem services. To evaluate the unique response of Afrotropical forests to changes in the abiotic environment and disturbance, we employ species inventories, remotely sensed historic climatic data, and future climate predictions collected from 104 1-ha plots in the central African country of Gabon. We forecast a 3 - 8% decrease in Afrotropical forest species richness by the end of the century, in contrast to the 30-50% loss of plant diversity predicted to occur with equivalent warming in the Neotropics. This work reveals that community forecasts are not generalizable across regions, and more representative studies are needed in understudied biomes like the Afrotropics. This study serves as an important counterpoint to work done in the Neotropics by providing contrasting predictions for Afrotropical forests with substantially different ecological, evolutionary, and anthropogenic histories.

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Disturbance Sensitivity Shapes Patterns of Tree Species Distribution in Afrotropical Lowland Rainforests More Than Climate or Soil

10.1101/823203 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Chase L. Nuñez ◽

James S. Clark ◽

John R. Poulsen

Keyword(s):

Human Disturbance ◽

Large Scale ◽

Soil Nutrient ◽

Forest Community ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Abiotic Environment ◽

Tree Inventory ◽

Tree Cutting ◽

Congo Brazzaville ◽

Work Done

AbstractUnderstanding how tropical forests respond to changes in the abiotic environment and human disturbance is critical for preserving biodiversity, mitigating climate change, and maintaining ecosystem services in the coming century. To evaluate the relative roles of the abiotic environment and disturbance on Afrotropical forest community composition we employ tree inventory data, remotely sensed historic climatic data, and soil nutrient data collected from 30 1-ha plots distributed across a large-scale observational experiment in previously logged, hunted, and pristine forests in northern Republic of Congo (Brazzaville). We show that Afrotropical plant communities are more sensitive to human disturbance than to climate, with particular sensitivities to hunting and distance to village (a proxy for other human activities, including tree-cutting, gathering, etc.). This study serves as an important counterpoint to work done in the Neotropics by providing contrasting predictions for Afrotropical forests with substantially different ecological, evolutionary, and anthropogenic histories.

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Thermophilization of adult and juvenile tree communities in the northern tropical Andes

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1506570112 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 112 (34) ◽

pp. 10744-10749 ◽

Cited By ~ 57

Author(s):

Alvaro Duque ◽

Pablo R. Stevenson ◽

Kenneth J. Feeley

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

Tropical Forests ◽

Tree Mortality ◽

Tropical Andes ◽

Tree Species Composition ◽

Episodic Event ◽

Adult Trees ◽

Tree Communities ◽

Show Evidence

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in the composition of tropical montane forests towards increased relative abundances of species whose ranges were previously centered at lower, hotter elevations. To investigate this process of “thermophilization,” we analyzed patterns of compositional change over the last decade using recensus data from a network of 16 adult and juvenile tree plots in the tropical forests of northern Andes Mountains and adjacent lowlands in northwestern Colombia. Analyses show evidence that tree species composition is strongly linked to temperature and that composition is changing directionally through time, potentially in response to climate change and increasing temperatures. Mean rates of thermophilization [thermal migration rate (TMR), °C⋅y−1] across all censuses were 0.011 °C⋅y−1 (95% confidence interval = 0.002–0.022 °C⋅y−1) for adult trees and 0.027 °C⋅y−1 (95% confidence interval = 0.009–0.050 °C⋅y−1) for juvenile trees. The fact that thermophilization is occurring in both the adult and juvenile trees and at rates consistent with concurrent warming supports the hypothesis that the observed compositional changes are part of a long-term process, such as global warming, and are not a response to any single episodic event. The observed changes in composition were driven primarily by patterns of tree mortality, indicating that the changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather than range shifts or expansions. These results all indicate that tropical forests are being strongly affected by climate change and suggest that many species will be at elevated risk for extinction as warming continues.

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The strategy for protecting threatened forest species richness in northeastern China from the effects of climate change

International Journal of Environment and Pollution ◽

10.1504/ijep.2019.10021675 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Jing Hua Yu ◽

Li Hua Wang ◽

Shi Jie Han ◽

Chun Jing Wang ◽

Ji Zhong Wan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Richness ◽

Northeastern China ◽

Forest Species

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Reduced abundance of late-successional trees but not of seedlings in heavily compared with lightly logged sites of three East African tropical forests

Journal of Tropical Ecology ◽

10.1017/s0266467410000283 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 26 (5) ◽

pp. 533-546 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Jasper Mbae Kirika ◽

Katrin Böhning-Gaese ◽

Bonny Dumbo ◽

Nina Farwig

Keyword(s):

Species Richness ◽

Tropical Forests ◽

Forest Disturbance ◽

Forest Species ◽

East African ◽

Kakamega Forest ◽

Successional Species ◽

Tropical Landscapes ◽

Budongo Forest ◽

The Impact

Abstract:Logged forests form an increasingly large proportion of tropical landscapes but disproportionately few studies have studied the impact of forest disturbance, e.g. lightly vs. heavily logged, on tree and seedling communities simultaneously. We sampled all trees (on 1 ha) and all recently germinated seedlings (on 90 m2) in three lightly and three heavily logged sites in each of the following three East African tropical forests: Budongo Forest and Mabira Forest in Uganda and Kakamega Forest in Kenya. We analysed species richness, diversity, abundance and community composition of late- and early-successional trees and seedlings. We recorded no difference in species richness or diversity of late-successional or early-successional trees between lightly and heavily logged sites. However, the abundance of late-successional species was lower in heavily than lightly logged sites. Moreover, there was no difference in species richness or diversity of trees among the three forests. Yet, abundances of late-successional trees were higher in Budongo Forest than in Mabira Forest and Kakamega Forest. Species richness, diversity and abundance of seedlings did not differ between lightly and heavily logged sites. Only the abundance of seedlings of late-successional species differed among the forests with more individuals in Budongo Forest than in Mabira Forest. This was corroborated by non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) showing clear differences in composition of tree and seedling communities among the three forests. Thus, both, the tree and seedling communities differed significantly among the three forests but not between lightly and heavily logged sites.

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Tree aboveground biomass and species richness of the mature tropical forests of Darien, Panama, and their role in global climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation

Conservation Science and Practice ◽

10.1111/csp2.42 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (8) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Javier Mateo‐Vega ◽

J. Pablo Arroyo‐Mora ◽

Catherine Potvin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Richness ◽

Biodiversity Conservation ◽

Tropical Forests ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Aboveground Biomass ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Change Mitigation

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The strategy for protecting threatened forest species richness in the northeastern China from the effects of climate change

International Journal of Environment and Pollution ◽

10.1504/ijep.2019.103744 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 65 (4) ◽

pp. 293

Author(s):

Ji Zhong Wan ◽

Chun Jing Wang ◽

Shi Jie Han ◽

Li Hua Wang ◽

Jing Hua Yu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Richness ◽

Northeastern China ◽

Forest Species

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Big-sized trees overrule remaining trees' attributes and species richness as determinants of aboveground biomass in tropical forests.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.735819621.793578053 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Bernhard Schmid

Keyword(s):

Species Richness ◽

Tropical Forests ◽

Aboveground Biomass

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Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12020172 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 172

Author(s):

Yuan Xu ◽

Jieming Chou ◽

Fan Yang ◽

Mingyang Sun ◽

Weixing Zhao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Climatic Data ◽

The South ◽

The North ◽

Output Elasticity ◽

The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

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