scholarly journals Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Mingyang Sun ◽  
Weixing Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Output Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND DISTRIBUTION IN PLATEAU STATE NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 05-09
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Sufiyan ◽  
J.I. Magaji ◽  
A.T. Ogah ◽  
K.D. Mohammed ◽  
K.K Geidam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Plateau State ◽  
Positive Correlations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Growing Population

Food production becomes necessary in other to feed the growing population. There is pressure on land for cultivation and climate change has affected the crop yields, production and distributions in Plateau state Nigeria. The two important parameters of climate that are temperature and rainfall have significantly shows positive correlations. Three crops; Millet, Groundnut and Guinea corn (Sorghum), have been studied by comparing their yield using temperature and rainfall the assessment. The rainfall has the highest correlation with 0.987while, the impact of temperature base on the Pearson rank correlation has 0.853. the application of the coefficient determination will provide individual crop yield base on its relationship with independent variable.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Crop Yield: Irrigated vs. Non-Irrigated Zones in Mississippi

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2249
Author(s):  
Sadia Alam Shammi ◽  
Qingmin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and its impact on agriculture are challenging issues regarding food production and food security. Many researchers have been trying to show the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture using different methods. In this study, we used linear regression models to assess the impact of climate on crop yield spatially and temporally by managing irrigated and non-irrigated crop fields. The climate data used in this study are Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmean (mean temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), precipitation, and soybean annual yields, at county scale for Mississippi, USA, from 1980 to 2019. We fit a series of linear models that were evaluated based on statistical measurements of adjusted R-square, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the statistical model evaluation, the 1980–1992 model Y[Tmax,Tmin,Precipitation]92i (BIC = 120.2) for irrigated zones and the 1993–2002 model Y[Tmax,Tmean,Precipitation]02ni (BIC = 1128.9) for non-irrigated zones showed the best fit for the 10-year period of climatic impacts on crop yields. These models showed about 2 to 7% significant negative impact of Tmax increase on the crop yield for irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Besides, the models for different agricultural districts also explained the changes of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation in the irrigated (adjusted R-square: 13–28%) and non-irrigated zones (adjusted R-square: 8–73%). About 2–10% negative impact of Tmax was estimated across different agricultural districts, whereas about −2 to +17% impacts of precipitation were observed for different districts. The modeling of 40-year periods of the whole state of Mississippi estimated a negative impact of Tmax (about 2.7 to 8.34%) but a positive impact of Tmean (+8.9%) on crop yield during the crop growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Overall, we assessed that crop yields were negatively affected (about 2–8%) by the increase of Tmax during the growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated zones. Both positive and negative impacts on crop yields were observed for the increases of Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation, respectively, for irrigated and non-irrigated zones. This study showed the pattern and extent of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation and their impacts on soybean yield at local and regional scales. The methods and the models proposed in this study could be helpful to quantify the climate change impacts on crop yields by considering irrigation conditions for different regions and periods.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Manashi Paul ◽  
Sijal Dangol ◽  
Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽  
Amy R. Sapkota ◽  
Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

scholarly journals What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 9241
Author(s):  
Chengfang Huang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Systematic Review Methodology ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Yield Decrease

Many studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop yield in China, while results have varied due to uncertain factors. This study has drawn a highly consistent consensus from the scientific evidence based on numerous existing studies. By a highly rational systematic review methodology, we obtained 737 result samples with the theme of climate change affecting China’s crop yields. Then, we used likelihood scale and trend analysis methods to quantify the consensus level and uncertainty interval of these samples. The results showed that: (i) The crop yield decrease in the second half of the 21st century will be greater than 5% of that in the first half. (ii) The crop most affected by climate change will be maize, with the decreased value exceeding −25% at the end of this century, followed by rice and wheat exceeding −10% and −5%. (iii) The positive impact of CO2 on crop yield will change by nearly 10%. Our conclusions clarify the consensus of the impact of future climate change on China’s crop yield, and this study helps exclude the differences and examine the policies and actions that China has taken and should take in response to climate change.

scholarly journals Food production in an age of global warming and weirding

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-12
Author(s):  
Stuart Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Water Supplies ◽  
Competing Demands ◽  
Rainfall Patterns ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Do So

Some estimates suggest that we will need to double food production by 2050, and do so despite the effects of climate change on crop yields. The competing demands of agriculture and human populations upon water supplies can only become more extreme with time and are likely to be exacerbated by the impact of increased evaporation due to global warming and changes to rainfall patterns. Therefore, this article will examine some of the ways that we can produce food using less water.

Agriculture under Climate Change in the Northern Territories of Russia

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-46
Author(s):  
A.S. Shcherbakova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pair Correlation ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The North ◽  
Northern Territories ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

A special report published in October 2018 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the effects of global warming at 1.5 °C caused another resonance among the scientific community, experts, politicians and ordinary people [20]. It has been prove that northern territories are most affect by climate change. Because of this report, it becomes relevant to study the impact of climate change on agriculture in the North, which is the most climate-dependent in comparison with other sectors of the economy. The work is devoted to assessing the impact of agro-climatic indicators on productivity and gross harvest of the main agricultural crops of some regions of the Far North and equivalent areas for 1960-2018. The analysis of the relationship of pair correlation between the yield of cereals, potatoes, vegetables and selected climatic indicators relating to the growing season is carry out. Agro-climatic resources for half a century of time in the studied regions are analyzed. Each region was considered in the context of the available meteorological stations and their climatic data.

Impacts of climate change on net crop revenue in North and South China

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 358-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinxia Wang ◽  
Jikun Huang ◽  
Lijuan Zhang ◽  
Yumin Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Variation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
North And South ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of climate change on crop net revenue by region. Particularly, the authors focus on the impact differences between north and south regions. Design/methodology/approach – The authors applied the Ricardian approach which assumes that each farmer wishes to maximize revenue subject to the exogenous conditions of their farm. The climate data are based on actual measurements in 753 national meteorological stations and the socio-economic data covers 8,405 farms across 28 provinces in China. Findings – On average, the rise of annual temperature will hurt farms both in the north or south. The impacts of climate change on both precipitation and temperatures have different seasonal impacts on producers in the north and the south of China. As a consequence, the impact on net farm revenues varies with farms in the north and the south being adversely affected (to different degrees) by a rise in the temperature, but both benefiting from an anticipated increase in rainfall. The results also reveal that irrigation is one key adaption measure to dealing with climate change. Whether in the north or south of China, increasing temperature is beneficial to irrigated farms, while for rainfed farms, higher temperature will result in a reduction in net revenues. The results also reveal that farms in the north are more vulnerable to temperature and precipitation variation than that in the south. Irrigated farms in the south are more vulnerable to precipitation variation than that in the north; but rainfed farms in the north are more vulnerable to precipitation variation than that in the south. Originality/value – Applying empirical analysis to identify the differences of climate change impacts between north and south regions will help policy makers to design reasonable adaptation policies for various regions.

scholarly journals Vegetation Phenological Changes in Multiple Landforms and Responses to Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongzhu Han ◽  
Jianjun Bai ◽  
Gao Ma ◽  
Jianwu Yan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Vegetation Phenology ◽  
The South ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Vegetation phenology is highly sensitive to climate change, and the phenological responses of vegetation to climate factors vary over time and space. Research on the vegetation phenology in different climatic regimes will help clarify the key factors affecting vegetation changes. In this paper, based on a time-series reconstruction of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data using the Savitzky–Golay filtering method, the phenology parameters of vegetation were extracted, and the Spatio-temporal changes from 2001 to 2016 were analyzed. Moreover, the response characteristics of the vegetation phenology to climate changes, such as changes in temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours, were discussed. The results showed that the responses of vegetation phenology to climatic factors varied within different climatic regimes and that the Spatio-temporal responses were primarily controlled by the local climatic and topographic conditions. The following were the three key findings. (1) The start of the growing season (SOS) has a regular variation with the latitude, and that in the north is later than that in the south. (2) In arid areas in the north, the SOS is mainly affected by the temperature, and the end of the growing season (EOS) is affected by precipitation, while in humid areas in the south, the SOS is mainly affected by precipitation, and the EOS is affected by the temperature. (3) Human activities play an important role in vegetation phenology changes. These findings would help predict and evaluate the stability of different ecosystems.

scholarly journals Dissemination of Invasive Mosquito Species, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L., 1762) and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse, 1895) in the South of Krasnodar Region, Russia

2018 ◽  
pp. 101-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. Fedorova ◽  
O. G. Shvets ◽  
Yu. V. Yunicheva ◽  
I. M. Medyanik ◽  
T. E. Ryabova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Mosquito Species ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Black Sea Coast ◽  
Northern Border ◽  
Invasive Mosquito ◽  
Krasnodar Region

Objective of the study was to investigate the current borders of the invasive species Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distribution in the south of the Krasnodar Region and climatic factors limiting their expansion. Material and methods. Mosquito larvae, pupa and imago were collected in 21 inhabited localities in August–September, 2017, using conventional entomological methods, and identified through standard morphological keys. Climatic data found on the website pogoda. ru were analyzed using SPSS program. Results and conclusions. Ae. albopictus is widely spread along the Black Sea coast, from Adler to Novorossiysk (Ozereyevka), as well as on the north slopes of Caucasus up to Maikop. Additional investigations are required to specify the northern border of species distribution and to evidence the existence of established populations here. Ae. aegypti were not found in the south of the Krasnodar Region. The obtained data suggest a possibility of much wider spreading of dengue, Chikungunya and Zika fevers in case of pathogen importation to the south of Krasnodar Region, than was assumed earlier.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

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