Recession effect in pricing efficiency of rubber futures: the emerging market’s experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 503-519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saji Thazhugal Govindan Nair
Keyword(s):  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Causal Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the recession effects in market efficiency of natural rubber futures contracts traded in India. Design/methodology/approach The research draws inferences from Granger causality and Engle–Granger cointegration tests, which are administered separately on 14 year daily price data spanning into two distinct, non-overlapping time series of 2004–2008 and 2009–2017. Findings Analysis shows that rubber futures market is informationally efficient in price discovery. The results of cointegartion tests indicate that a long-term relationship does exist between futures and spot prices of the natural rubber in India. The recession effects in the market efficiency of rubber futures contracts are evident from the increase in optimal hedge ratios estimated with the cointegration methodology. Research limitations/implications The study pursues a simple cointegration methodology to assess the causal relations between spot and futures market prices in the Indian context. Future studies investigating the long-run causal relations, with error correction framework, between spot and future prices of rubber from other leading rubber producing countries can validate the findings more on this issue. Practical implications The research expects to pass on vital information inputs on the implications of future contracts to rubber traders for managing their portfolios. The study of this kind definitely will be a great help to farmers and exporters who are potentially interested in gaining access to a hedging vehicle. Originality/value The paper is unique in terms of understanding the effects of economic recession in information efficiency of futures market. Moreover, a limited number of studies have explored the functional utilities of rubber futures in emerging market context.

A tale of two coffees? Analysing interaction and futures market efficiency

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-109
Author(s):  
Mark J. Holmes ◽  
Jesús Otero
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Recursive Estimation ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Price Differentials

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the informational efficiency of Arabica (other milds) and Robusta coffee futures markets in terms of predicting future coffee spot prices. Design/methodology/approach Futures market efficiency is associated with the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between spot and future prices such that coffee futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices. This study applies unit root testing to daily data for futures-spot price differentials. A range of maturities for futures contracts are considered, and the study also uses a recursive approach to consider time variation in futures market efficiency. Findings The other milds and Robusta futures prices tend to be unbiased predictors for their own respective spot prices. The paper further finds that other milds and Robusta futures prices are unbiased predictors of the respective Robusta and other milds spot prices. Recursive estimation suggests that the futures market efficiency associated with these cross cases has increased, though with no clear link to the implementation of the 2007 International Coffee Agreement. Originality/value The paper draws new insights into futures market efficiency by examining the two key types of coffee and analyses the potential interactions between them. Hitherto, no attention has been paid to futures contracts of the Robusta variety. The employment of unit root testing of spot futures coffee price differentials can be viewed as more stringent than an approach based on non-cointegration testing.

Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarun Kumar Soni
Keyword(s):  
Futures Market ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the market efficiency, unbiasedness and the direction of causality among four agricultural commodity futures contracts for a forecasting horizon of 28 days, 56 days and 84 days which are traded at National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd. Design/methodology/approach – To analyse the efficiency of futures market in Indian scenario, we focus on maize, chickpea, soybean and wheat which are among the most important agricultural commodities traded in India. In the first step, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and nonparametric Phillips-Perron approaches have been used to examine the stationarity of all futures and spot price series. After testing the presence of cointegration in futures and spot series using Johansen’s Cointegration approach, the joint restrictions of β 0=0, β 1=1 and β 1=1 on the cointegrating vectors were imposed to test whether the futures price is an unbiased predictor of spot at contract maturity. In the next step, linear Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the nonparametric Diks and Panchenko (2006) causality tests were applied to examine the direction of causality. Finally, nonlinear test were applied on the vector error correction model (VECM) residuals to investigate whether any remaining causality is strictly nonlinear in nature. Findings – The results of cointegration tests between futures and spot prices of the selected agricultural commodities indicated a long term relationship do exist in three out of four futures contracts. However, the Wald tests results on the cointegrating vectors indicate markets as inefficient and biased. Further, analysis of short-term relationship using alternate tests of causality do not give consistent results for same commodity series indicating that results may vary due to alternate measures and specifications. Finally, if we consider the results of Diks-Panchenko test on the filtered VECM-residuals, results provide evidence that if cointegration is taken into account; neither spot nor future leads or lags the other consistently. Research limitations/implications – The results are based on the sample of four agricultural futures commodity contracts. The study can be extended to a larger sample of contracts and relative efficiency of each contract can be explored. Originality/value – There are very few studies that have explored the efficiency, unbiasedness and direction of causality using both linear and nonlinear techniques for Indian agriculture commodity futures market for different forecasting horizons.

A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of housing market: a role of financial crises in developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ali Raza ◽  
Nida Shah ◽  
Muhammad Tahir Suleman ◽  
Md Al Mamun
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
House Price ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

Purpose This study aims to examine the house price fluctuations in G7 countries by using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) for the years 1970–2019. The study examined the market efficiency between the short-term and long-term in the full sample period, before and after the global financial crisis period. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the MF-DFA to analyze house price fluctuations. Findings The findings confirmed that the housing market series are multifractal. Furthermore, all the markets showed long-term persistence in both the short and long-term. The USA is identified as the most persistent house market in the short run and Japan in the long run. Moreover, in terms of efficiency, Canada is identified as the most efficient house market in the long run and the UK in the short run. Finally, the result of before and after the financial crisis period is consistent with the full sample result. Originality/value The contribution of this study in the literature is fourfold. This is the first study that has examined the house prices efficiency by using the MF-DFA technique given by Kantelhardt et al. (2002). Previously, the house market prices and efficiency has been investigated using generalized Hurst exponent (Liu et al., 2019), Quantile Regression Approach (Chae and Bera, 2019; Tiwari et al., 2019) but no study to the best of the knowledge has been done that has used the MF-DFA technique on the housing market. Second, this is the first study that has focused on the house markets of G7 countries. Third, this study explores the house market efficiency by dividing the market into two periods i.e. before and after the financial crisis. The study strives to investigate if the financial crisis determines the change in the degree of market efficiency or not. Finally, the study gives valuable insights to the investors that will help them in their investment decisions.

Testing for bubbles in housing markets: some evidence for Brazil

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 754-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria ◽  
Nelson Leitão Paes ◽  
Marcelo Eduardo Alves Silva
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose Housing prices in Brazil have displayed an impressive growth in recent years, raising some concerns about the existence of a bubble in housing markets. In this paper, the authors implement an empirical methodology to identify whether or not there is a bubble in housing markets in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach Based on a theoretical model that establish that, in the absence of a bubble, a long-run equilibrium relationship should be observed between the market price of an asset and its dividends. The authors implement two methodologies. First, the authors assess whether there is a cointegration relationship between housing prices and housing rental prices. Second, the authors test whether the price-to-rent ratio is stationary. Findings The authors’ results show that there is evidence of a bubble in housing prices in Brazil. However, given the short span of the data, the authors perform a Monte Carlo simulation and show that the cointegration tests may be biased in small samples. Therefore, the authors should be caution when assessing the results. Research limitations/implications The results obtained from the cointegration analysis can be biased for small samples. Practical implications The information on the excessive increase of the prices of the properties in relation to their fundamental value can help in the decision-making on investment of the economic agents. Social implications These results corroborate the hypothesis that Brazil has an excessive appreciation in housing prices, and, as Silva and Besarria (2018) have suggested, this behavior explains, in part, the fact that the central bank has taken this issue into account when deciding about the stance of monetary policy of Brazil. Originality/value The originality is linked to the use of the Gregory-Hansen method of cointegration in the identification of bubbles and discussion of the limitations of the research through Monte Carlo simulation.

Relief of looser US monetary policy cannot mask risks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Economic Information ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Succession Process ◽  
The Interest Rate

Significance Following the meal, the Fed said Powell did not discuss monetary policy "except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook". The futures market now sees a 75% chance that the interest rate will be unchanged in twelve months’ time, a substantial shift from late last year when at least two rate hikes were widely predicted for 2019. This shift is helping US equities to regain momentum. Impacts The flatter dollar this year is helping net inflows to emerging market bond and equity funds build momentum after large outflows in 2018. Further oil price upside may be limited; Venezuela’s small share of global output means sanctions will not greatly alter market dynamics. Mario Draghi’s ECB presidency ends in October; policy could be disrupted if European elections in May delay the succession process. US economic momentum is firmer than in the euro-area or Japan but less monetary policy divergence between them may help the euro and yen.

scholarly journals A macro assessment of China effects on Malaysian exports and trade balances

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tze-Haw Chan ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Chee-Wooi Hooy
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Collaboration ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to focus on the impact of China's export expansion on Malaysian monthly trading with to her 12 major trading partners over the liberalization era. Design/methodology/approach – The analytical framework comprises of both the export and trade balance models. Unit root and cointegration tests with break and error correction modeling are employed in the analyses. Findings – Regime shifts are evident in the long run where structural break(s) found mostly coincides with the Asia crisis and China's accession into WTO. While the income effects are more apparent in most cases, the real exchanges are rather insignificant and incorrectly signed for Malaysian bilateral trading. Besides, the trade balance estimation is generally more consistent that the Chinese exports have exhibited complementary effects in the long-run, mainly for advanced export destination such as Australia, Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA. On the whole, there is insufficient evidence to support the “PRC competitive threat”. Practical implications – The empirical evidence disfavors currency devaluation for current account correction and reveals that the fear for China effect might be over-projected. Closer regional collaboration and trade integration between the two nations are well expected. Originality/value – The paper assesses the China's crowding out effect and magnitudes of Malaysian export and trade balance elasticities with model specifications that consider structural breaks. The paper also assesses the macro dimension of income and real exchanges effects.

International capital inflows and labour immigration

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (12) ◽  
pp. 1420-1438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evelyn S. Devadason ◽  
Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Migrant Worker ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Trade Theory ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and unskilled immigrants for a panel of 23 manufacturing industries in Malaysia, spanning the period 1985-2009. Design/methodology/approach The paper establishes the causal FDI-immigrant links within a multivariate model framework for the period 2000-2009, and in a univariate context for 1985-1999 and 1985-2009. Findings Based on heterogeneous panel cointegration tests, there is a long-run equilibrium between inward FDI, unskilled migrant share, output growth, export intensity and market concentration. The long-run cointegrating coefficient based on the fully modified least squares estimator suggests the presence of unskilled migrant workers a significant location determinant for inward FDI for the first sub-period and the overall period. The results of the panel vector error correction model further attest to causal links between unskilled migrant worker presence and inward FDI in the short- and long run. Bidirectional causality between inward capital and labour flows is present in the first sub-period and unidirectional causal links from unskilled migrants to inward FDI is evident for the overall period. Research limitations/implications The observed FDI-immigration (unskilled) links in manufacturing support the argument that inward FDI is induced by unskilled migration. The study reveals that unskilled immigration increases FDI inflows or rather “capital chases labour” in terms of international factor mobility. Practical implications This has profound implications for public policy as the government seeks to reduce its dependence on migrant workers. Policy coordination is therefore needed between regulating inflows of foreign capital and foreign labour so that implemented policies do not pull in different directions and undermine Malaysia’s attractiveness as a destination for FDI. Originality/value The large presence of unskilled migrants, an intrinsic characteristic (based on the new trade theory that includes factor endowments) of Malaysia, seems to be largely ignored when explaining FDI inflows to manufacturing, particularly so when the siting of MNCs in this sector have traditionally been in light scale manufacturing.

Foreign direct investments, democracy, and economic growth in Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 232-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazif Durmaz
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose In the last decade, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have increased dramatically in the world, especially in the emerging economies. Some of these countries make changes in their market conditions that will improve the civil rights and liberties to attract better FDI flows. The purpose of this paper is to test the linkage between democracy and FDI flows to Turkey. Design/methodology/approach The present study employs a bounds testing procedure developed (Pesaran et al., 2001) for cointegration analysis on six different long-run models with selected determinants of FDIs with yearly data from 1977 to 2011. Findings The intuition the paper empirically provides how improvements in democracy have a significant positive impact on FDI flows to Turkey. The results may also put forward that, in the long run, FDI inflows will have spillover effects in Turkey’s economy. Research limitations/implications Although one drawback in the study is having a small sample size of 35 observations, estimating six different long-run models is one way to overcome it. Thus presented results may be in short of simplification for some readers. This, however, opens an opportunity for future studies to further the proposal by employing in different models and/or longer data sets if possible. Practical implications A stable government policies, more civil freedom, and sustained institution politics should not be ignored in Turkey given its geopolitical location. Originality/value This paper satisfies the established need to study of democracy and FDI flows link is necessary in an emerging market such as Turkey.

Financial development, FDI and economic growth: evidence from Sudan

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1236-1249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdalla Sirag ◽  
Samira SidAhmed ◽  
Hamisu Sadi Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose The effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth is widely believed to be contingent on the development of the financial sector. Nevertheless, as the possibility that the effect of financial development on growth being contingent on FDI has been neglected in existing literature, the authors have investigated it in this paper. In general, the purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of financial development and FDI on economic growth in Sudan using annual data from 1970 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach Since most of the macroeconomic variables are subject to unit root problem, the time series data are assessed using unit root and cointegration tests with/without structural break. Moreover, the study uses the fully modified ordinary least squares and the dynamic ordinary least squares techniques to estimate the long-run model. Findings The results of the cointegration tests provide evidence that a long-run relationship exists among variables even after accounting for the structural break. The results show that financial development and FDI are positive and significant in explaining economic growth in Sudan. Financial development is found to be more beneficial to economic growth than FDI. Moreover, the findings reveal that FDI leads to better economic performance through financial development. Interestingly, the findings of the study show that the effect of financial development on economic growth is further enhanced by the inflows of FDI. Research limitations/implications The government should focus on promoting FDI in more productive sectors. In addition, further cooperation with multinational enterprises is needed to increase FDI in the country. Originality/value This is the first paper that empirically examines both the interlinked impact of FDI on growth through financial development and the impact of financial development on economic growth through FDI in Sudan using appropriate econometric methods.

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