Knock-In and Stocks Market Effect Due to ELS Issuance and Hedging

In this paper we analyze the shortfall risk implied in the auto call step down equity linked securities (ELS) based on two underlying assets, which is a major product of the rapidly growing ELS market as the low interest rate environment continues. And we also present the hedging strategies for managing shortfall risk. In the position of auto call step down ELS issuer, 1) until the underlying asset price reaches at knock-in (KI) level, the delta of the underlying is continually and significantly increased in order to hedge the short position of the Down and Out (DO) option and the long position of the put option inherent in ELS, 2) however, the hedger must reduce this delta as soon as the underperformed underlying price touches KI level, which triggers the vanishing of the DO option. As a way to manage these shortfall risks, this paper proposes two new hedging strategies of minimizing these shortfall risks and depending on the KI probability. Also this paper shows that these hedging strategies provide better performance than traditional BS hedging strategy when these hedging strategies are applied to a sample product with real market data. As the policy proposals, first, in order to prevent the concentration of the KI prices, ELS issue amount based on the same underlying is needed to be determined in consideration of both the average market trading volume and maximum leverage delta. Second, in the realm of pin risk such as Knock-In or Knock-Out, where the leverage increases, it is recommended to mitigate the risk management delta limit based on the BS model which is made under the assumption of continuous hedging infinitesimally.