Policy shocks, current account and the macroeconomy in a developing country

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-726
Author(s):  
Moumita Basu ◽  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Effective Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

Does real exchange rate devaluation improve the current account balance of highly indebted low income countries?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-225
Author(s):  
Getaneh Mihret Ayele
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether real exchange rate devaluation improves the current account balance of four highly indebted low-income countries of East Africa. Design/methodology/approach The pooled mean group (PMG) approach is used for panel data from four countries over the period 1970–2016. The paper also applied bound testing and ARDL model for time-series data from individual sample countries. Findings The panel PMG/ARDL estimation result reveals that real exchange rate devaluation has no significant impact on the current account balance, both in the short and long run. However, the time-series analysis using the bound testing and restricted ARDL estimation suggests that real exchange rate devaluation improves the current account balance in the long run for only Ethiopia. The overall empirical results reveal that the current account balance would improve with the rising domestic income while it deteriorates with increasing foreign income and external indebtedness in the long run. Originality/value The paper is original.

What Explains Current Account Surplus in Korea?

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-93
Author(s):  
Chirok Han ◽  
Kwanho Shin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

Since the currency crisis in 1998, Korea has experienced continuous current account surpluses. Recently, the current account surplus increased more rapidly—amounting to 7.7 percent of GDP in 2015. In this paper, we investigate the underlying reasons for the widening of Korea's current account surpluses. We find that the upward trend in Korea's current account surpluses is largely explained by its demographical changes. Other economic variables are only helpful when explaining short run fluctuations in current account balances. Moreover, we show that Korea's current account surplus is expected to disappear by 2042 as it becomes one of the most aged economies in the world. Demographic changes are so powerful that they explain, quite successfully, the current account balance trends of other economies with highly aged populations such as Japan, Germany, Italy, Finland, and Greece. When we add the real exchange rate as an additional explanatory variable, it is statistically significant with the right sign, but the magnitude explained by it is quite limited. For example, to reduce the current account surplus by 1 percentage point, a 12 percent depreciation is needed. If Korea's current exchange rate is undervalued 4 to 12 percent less than the level consistent with fundamentals, it is impossible to reduce Korea's current account surplus to a reasonable level by adjusting the exchange rate alone. Another way to reduce current account surplus is to expand fiscal policies. We find, however, that the impact of fiscal adjustments in reducing current account surplus is even more limited. According to our estimates, reducing the current account surplus by 1 percentage point requires an increase in budget deficits (as a ratio to GDP) of 5 to 6 percentage points. If we allow endogenous movements of exchange rate and fiscal policy, the impact of exchange rate adjustment increases by 1.6 times but that of fiscal policy decreases that it is no longer statistically significant.

scholarly journals Financial Liberalization and Current Account Developments in New EU Member States

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-154
Author(s):  
Zdenka Obuljen Zoričić ◽  
Boris Cota ◽  
Nataša Erjavec
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Member States ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
New Eu Member States ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Current Account

AbstractDue to negotiations on accession to the EU, the new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe went through the financial opening. In the pre-crisis period followed by high liquidity in global markets, most of the EU new member states experienced rapid credit growth, which conditioned the appreciation of the exchange rate. External imbalances and vulnerabilities built up. Countries experienced deterioration in their current accounts. This paper investigates the link between financial openness, real effective exchange rate, financial crisis and current account balance within the Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework for 11 new European Union members during the period from 1999 to 2016. The results obtained by the use of pooled mean group estimator (PMG) show that in the long run, financial openness has a significant negative impact on the current account balance. In the short run, crisis significantly influences the current account balance having a positive sign.

scholarly journals Current Account Balance and Export Performances: Evidence Based on New EU Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-48
Author(s):  
Željko Bogdan ◽  
Boris Cota ◽  
Nataša Erjavec
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Research Topic ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Current Account

Abstract In this paper, we investigate whether the differences in the current account balance and export performances for a new EU countries are a result of exchange rate policies. The analysis shows that countries with a flexible exchange rate have better export performances and the current account balance in the pre-crisis period. The obtained results show that movements in the current account balance are mainly driven by domestic variables. In the countries with a flexible exchange rate, real and nominal depreciation affects export positively although the magnitude of these effects is tiny and limited to the crisis period. These results point to a higher significance of non-price competitiveness on export which should be a future research topic.

scholarly journals Pengaruh ekspor, utang luar negeri, neraca transaksi berjalan dan neraca transaksi modal terhadap cadangan devisa di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Graselita Aritonang ◽  
Amril Amril ◽  
Zulgani Zulgani
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Capital Account ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves

The purpose of this study is to (1) see the description of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account balance for the period 1998-2017. (2) analyze the effect of exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account balance on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The method used in this research is quantitative descriptive analysis with multiple regression model analysis using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of this study show that the average development of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves is 11.87 percent, exports are 7.38 percent, foreign debt is 4.51 percent, the current account balance is 514.89 percent and the capital account balance is 66.92 percent. Based on the results of the analysis carried out by exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account have a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves with a coefficient of determination of 98.37 percent. Keywords: Foreign exchange, export, Foreign debt, Current account, Capital account

scholarly journals ANALISIS INTERDEPENDENSI NILAI TUKAR, INFLASI, PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO, SUKU BUNGA DAN NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Uline Afriany Prasetia Simarmata
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Random Shock ◽  
The Current Account

Depreciation of the rupiah prompted Bank Indonesia raised SBI to strengthen the rupiah, inflation has a downward trend when the appreciation of the rupiah, and the movement of the exchange rate also change the position of the current account of Indonesia. This study aimed to determine the role and effects of changes in exchange rates, inflation, gross domestic product, interest rates and the current account balance for each variable. Data obtained from secondary data is exchange rate, inflation, GDP, interest rates and the current account data from 2000:1 up to 2010:4. The model used in this study is the econometric model by the method of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) that in their analysis the instrument has Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD). The results of this study concluded that (1) All variable giving each other random shock to other variables and response by each variable so as to achieve long-term equilibrium. This is shown on the estimation IRF test on each variable; (2) All variables are mutually contribute to other variables. It is shown by the results of estimation VD test, in which each variable contributed to other variables.

scholarly journals KONDISI MAKROEKONOMI SEBAGAI FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN PERIODE 1999-2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Erric Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
National Income ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Current Account

This study discusses the current account and itsinfluencing factors. The factors influencing the current account are macroeconomic factors, including national income (GDP), inflation, interest rate (SBI), and exchange rate.The period of this study starts from 1999 - 2016 using annual data. This study looks at the short-term and long-term effects of macroeconomic factors that affect the current account balance. The research model of this study was using cointegration test and Error Correction Model (ECM).The results showed that in the long run, the macroeconomic variables of national income (GDP) and inflation significantly influenced the current account balance. While in the short term, macroeconomic variables inflation and exchange rate significantly influenced the current account balance. Thusit can be concluded that, the inflation variable is the main macroeconomic variable that influenced the current account balance in the long term and in the short term. Keywords: current account, national income, SBI, inflation, exchange rate

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