Negative Effect of Current Account Surplus on Long-term Growth; Focused on the Cases of Japan, S. Korea and China

It is a teaching of current economics that the surplus of current account in international payment contributes to the increase of income. But it has got a negative effect on the long-term growth in the reality, which is easily proved by some instances. First, the Japanese growth rate has been very low despite its current account maintaining a huge surplus. Second, it is another instance that South Korea has suffered from its low growth rate even if its government has enforced the policy to defend its exchange rate from declining while its current account surplus has become large since 1998. Next, the growth rate of China has decreased from the time when its foreign reserve has begun to reduce despite its huge surplus of current account. This paper clarifies the reason why their growths are stagnant despite their huge surpluses in current account. If this paper changes the policies of above countries, it would resolve their economic difficulties and settle the imbalance of the world economy. And this paper would contribute to the evolution of economics.

South Africa current account surplus masks weaknesses

Headline SOUTH AFRICA: Current account surplus masks weaknesses

ESTIMATION OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF UKRAINE

The article highlights the features of the formation and assessment of the balance of payments in Ukraine. The balance of payments of Ukraine is a functional macroeconomic model that reflects all transactions that are carried out between the subjects of the national economy and the subjects of the economies of other countries of the world. This model allows you to develop and implement a sound foreign economic policy of Ukraine, analyze the state of commodity and financial markets, conduct scientific research of economic processes in the state, etc. Ukraine is actively implementing the methodology of balance of payments formation according to the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine's balance of payments by main components is grouped into two accounts: "capital and financial transactions" and "current transactions": capital transactions cover all transactions related to the receipt or payment of capital transfers and the acquisition or sale of property rights and non-financial assets; current transactions include all transactions between residents and non-residents on real values, as well as transactions on the free provision or receipt of valuables for current use. Like any other "balance of payments" consists of receipts and payments. It is active (surplus) when revenues are greater than payments and passive (deficit) when payments are greater than revenues. Based on the assessment of the balance of payments of Ukraine for 2020, certain conclusions can be drawn: stable external demand for food softened the drop in exports of goods from Ukraine during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the increase in prices contributed to its growth at the end of 2020; despite a slight recovery in domestic demand in the IV quarters of 2020, imports of goods to Ukraine by the results of 2020 decreased significantly; the current account surplus in Ukraine in 2020 was provided by a significant positive balance of trade in services and a record surplus of the primary income account; capital outflow from Ukraine on the financial account stopped at the end of 2020 due to the optimism of investors; despite the crisis and significant payments on external debt, Ukraine's gross reserves increased in 2020, and the financial crisis once again confirmed the importance of both international support and a balanced macroeconomic policy. The current account surplus in Ukraine in 2020 reached one of the largest levels in the history of Ukraine, it was formed due to a significant decrease in imports of goods and services, a reduction in payments on primary income and the relative stability of exports of goods and remittances. The article proposes recommendations for improving approaches to the formation of the balance of payments in Ukraine using certain methods when regulating the balance of payments of the state.

Unemployment and Current Account Imbalances in Nigeria

This study explores the link that exists between unemployment and current account imbalances in Nigeria from 1980 to 2014. It adopted the ARDL bounds test approach. The result gave evidence for a long-run relationship between the variables and also revealed a significant and inverse relationship between current account surplus and unemployment. Showing that a 1% increase in current account balances in favour of export will lead to a drop in the unemployment rate by 0.117893%. This, therefore, implies that current account deficit will cause a fall in employment and in turn a rise in the unemployment rate. Consequently, current account deficit leads to wage differentials in favour of the exporting countries as against importing countries, like Nigeria, and as such triggers a high rate of unemployment. We strongly recommend diversification of the country’s export-base which may increase employment opportunities and in turn reduce the unemployment rate. Keywords: Unemployment, Employment, Current Account Balances, Balance of payment, Output growth

The Effect of Demographic Transition on Savings, Investment, and Capital Flows

The world population, as well as Indonesia, is aging and this demographic transition influences saving, investment, and capital flows. By looking at data from 1973 to 2017, this paper finds two things. First, the relationship between age groups and saving exhibits the inverted U-shape, but only old dependency impact negatively on investment based on 104 countries’ data. The capital flows represented by current account is deficit in the young dependency, but surplus in the old dependency. Second, demographic transition in Indonesia induced an increase in savings by a higher rate than investment and caused current account surplus in this period.

We’d rather pay than change the politics of German non-adjustment in the Eurozone crisis

Germany’s large current account surplus has been widely criticized, especially against the backdrop of the role of macroeconomic imbalances in the Eurozone crisis. We argue that Germany’s resistance to reduce its massive current account surplus through an expansionary policy at home is rooted in distributive struggles about the design of possible adjustment policies. To explore this argument, we leverage original survey data from 135 German economic interest groups, qualitative interviews with interest group representatives and policymakers, and data from public opinion surveys. We show that while there is general support for internal adjustment among German interest groups, they disagree heavily about which specific policies should be implemented to achieve this goal. Together with a broad public and elite-based consensus to avoid a break-up of the Eurozone, this polarization turns financing into a politically attractive strategy. Rather than being rooted only in German ordoliberal ideas or Germany’s export-oriented structure, distributive conflicts contribute significantly to Germany’s resistance to reduce its large current-account surplus. Because similar dynamics can be observed in other surplus countries, we argue that distributive struggles within surplus countries played an important role in interstate conflicts about the management of the crisis.

Republic of Croatia

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Croatia discusses that it experienced its fifth consecutive year of solid economic growth, once again driven largely by private consumption and tourism. Employment gains have been robust, wages have continued to rise, while import prices have helped to keep inflation muted. Increased absorption of European Union funds is likely to raise public investment in the coming years. In conjunction with continued strong consumption, the current account surplus is expected to decline, and turn into a moderate deficit, while economic growth moderates. Both public and external indebtedness are expected to continue their declining trajectories. The pace of fiscal consolidation in 2019 continued to slow, with the budget estimated to be close to balance. Contingent liabilities could also pressure budget balances in the coming years.