Influence of individual investor sentiment on Taiwan option prices during 2007-2010 financial crisis

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 437-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Ming Szu ◽  
Wan-Ru Yang
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Option Market

Purpose – This paper investigates changes in risk-neutral distribution derived from Taiwan stockindex options under different market conditions. The purpose of this paper is to explore whether individual investor sentiment significantly influences the Taiwan option prices. Design/methodology/approach – The authors adopt the optimization method to estimate the risk-neutral distribution from the Taiwan stock index options and use the t-test to examine the difference in risk-neutral skewness, kurtosis, and confidence interval between the pre-crisis and crisis periods. This paper tests the impact of individual investor sentiment on risk-neutral skewness and confidence interval in two sub-periods. Findings – The authors find that errors in individual investors’ expectations significantly influence the Taiwan stock index option prices. Research limitations/implications – The data concerning the sentiment of speculative institutional investors are incomplete for the Taiwan option market. Therefore, this paper focusses on the analysis of individual investor sentiment. Further research can study the impact of institutional investor sentiment in emerging markets. Social implications – The previous literature has suggested that option prices reflect information before the information is revealed in stock prices. Therefore, an important implication is to analyze the information quality revealed in option prices by studying whether the changes in option prices are due to investor sentiment or non-sentiment-related components. Originality/value – Most of the studies in the literature have focussed on the US option market, and their applicability may vary across different microstructures. This paper shows that the influence of individual investor sentiment in an emerging market is different from that in the US market.

Categorizing sentiment and its impact on REIT returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 958-973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Huerta ◽  
Dave O. Jackson ◽  
Thanh Ngo
Keyword(s):  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Institutional Investor ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Rebalancing ◽  
Multiple Sample ◽  
Security Pricing ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the impact of investor sentiment on real estate investment trust (REIT) returns using direct, survey-based measures of sentiment to categorize sentiment from institutional and individual investors. Design/methodology/approach – The authors provide a framework in which sentiment is classified into individual and institutional investor sentiment under the assumption that investors, depending on sophistication, react differently to the same set of information and will influence REIT prices differently. The authors employ a methodology that uses panel regression analyses and divides the sample of REITs into size and performance portfolios. Findings – The regression results suggest that institutional investor sentiment is positively and significantly related to REIT returns contemporaneously for multiple sample specifications. These results are consistent with high levels of institutional ownership in REITs. Results also suggest that individual investor sentiment only influences small capitalization and low-α portfolios. Originality/value – The findings provide more evidence on the influence of investor sentiment on security pricing even for highly regulated sectors such as the REIT industry. Investors may use changes in sentiment as signals for portfolio rebalancing and capital allocations.

January sentiment effect in the US corporate bond market

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 370-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongdong Chen ◽  
Karen Ann Craig
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Bond Market ◽  
The Us ◽  
Bond Spreads ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Allocation Decisions

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of January sentiment on investors’ asset allocation decisions in the US corporate bond market during the rest of the year. Specifically, the study evaluates if the shift in January sentiment is a predictor of corporate bond spreads from February to December. Design/methodology/approach Using corporate bond trades reported in TRACE between 2005 and 2014, the authors examine the ability of the Index of Consumer Sentiment and the Index of Investor Sentiment to predict bond spreads over the 11 months following January. The study evaluates both the sign of the change in sentiment and the magnitude of the change in sentiment using two generalized linear models, controlling for industry, bond and firm fixed effects. Portfolios are analyzed based on yield, firm size and firm leverage. Additional analysis is performed to ensure results are robust to the impacts of the subprime financial crisis. Findings This paper finds that the changes in the sentiment measures in January predict bond spreads associated with bond trades in the subsequent 11 months, and this phenomenon, which the authors label as the “January sentiment effect,” has opposing impacts on risky and less risky bond portfolios. Originality/value This paper adds to the literature on the relationship between sentiment and investor’s allocation decisions. The evidence documented in this study is the first known to find that investors’ allocation decisions in a year are driven by their sentiment in January.

How Does Investor Sentiment Affect Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions of Call and Put Options?

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (02) ◽  
pp. 1550010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Ming Szu ◽  
Yi-Chen Wang ◽  
Wan-Ru Yang
Keyword(s):  
Asset Prices ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
Differential Impact ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Put Option ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Skewness And Kurtosis

This paper investigates the characteristics of implied risk-neutral distributions separately derived from Taiwan stock index call and put options prices. Differences in risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis between call and put options indicate deviations from put-call parity. We find that the sentiment effect is significantly related to differences between call and put option prices. Our results suggest the differential impact of investor sentiment and consumer sentiment on call and put option traders' expectations about underlying asset prices. Moreover, rational and irrational sentiment components have different influences on call and put option traders' beliefs.

Islamic index market sentiment: evidence from the ASEAN market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nevi Danila ◽  
Kamilah Kamaludin ◽  
Sheela Sundarasen ◽  
Bunyamin Bunyamin
Keyword(s):  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Noise Traders ◽  
Muslim Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine investor sentiment by measuring the impact of market sentiment shocks on the volatility of the Islamic stock index of five ASEAN countries, with noise traders as a proxy for market sentiment. Design/methodology/approach The GJR-GARCH model is used to capture the empirically observed fact that negative shocks in the past period have a stronger impact on variance than positive shocks in the present. Findings All five ASEAN Islamic stock indices show clustering volatility. However, only three countries, namely, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, demonstrate leverage effects. In addition, the effect of market sentiment on Islamic stock index returns is observed in the Indonesian and Malaysian markets, which are the two largest Islamic markets with a dominant Muslim population in the ASEAN. This finding implies that the trading behaviours of Muslim investors in the Shariah market are the same as their behaviours in the conventional market, that is, nonadherence to the Sunnah. Practical implications Whilst establishing investment strategies, creating portfolios and providing client-advisory services, investors and fund managers should factor in the presence of market sentiment and its impact on stock performance and volatility. In addition, a capital market system preventing rumour-based transactions is compelling. Social implications In some markets, the Islamic financial products awareness should be increased through education to attract increased domestic investors with the potential to boost growth in the Islamic stock market. Originality/value Investigation market sentiment impacts on the Islamic stock index using noise traders as a proxy.

The relationship between individual investor sentiment, stock return and volatility

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 504-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Sayim ◽  
Hamid Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Market Fundamentals ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Turkish individual investor sentiment on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and to investigate whether investor sentiment, stock return and volatility in Turkey are related. Design/methodology/approach – This study used the monthly Turkish Consumer Confidence Index, published by the Turkish Statistical Institute, as a proxy for individual investor sentiments. First, Turkish market fundamentals were regressed on investor sentiments in order to capture the effects of macroeconomic risk factors on investor sentiments. Then, it used the impulse response functions (IRFs) generated from the vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the effect of unanticipated movements in Turkish investor sentiment to both stock returns and volatility of the ISE. Findings – The generalized IRFs from VAR shows that unexpected changes in rational and irrational investor sentiment have a significant positive impact on ISE returns. This suggests that a positive investor sentiment tends to increase ISE returns. The study also documents that unanticipated increase in the rational component of Turkish investor sentiment has a negative significant effect on ISE volatility. This might indicate that investors have optimistic expectations of the economy overall with respect to market fundamentals in Turkey. This optimism can result in creating positive expectations, reducing uncertainty, and reducing the volatility of stock market returns. Research limitations/implications – The study was applied only for the period 2004-2010 on the ISE stock returns and volatility. Practical implications – Regardless, investors should know the impact of irrational investor sentiments while establishing investment strategies. The results of this study may also help policy makers stabilize investor sentiments to reduce stock market volatility and uncertainty. Originality/value – This paper adds to the limited understanding of investor sentiment impact on stock return and volatility in an emerging market context.

The effect of Medicare Part D on prescription drug composition and demand

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Zimmer
Keyword(s):  
Prescription Drug ◽  
Medicare Part D ◽  
Medicare Part ◽  
Part D ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Upper Respiratory ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Shed Light

Purpose – The US Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 introduced optional prescription drug coverage, beginning in 2006, widely known as Medicare Part D. This paper uses up-to-date nationally representative survey data to investigate the impact of Part D not only on drug spending and consumption, but also on the composition of drug consumption. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Specifically, the paper investigates whether Part D impacted the number of therapeutic classes for which drugs were prescribed, and also whether Part D lead to increased usage of drugs for specific medical conditions that typically receive drug-intensive therapies. Findings – In addition to confirming findings from previous studies, this paper shows that Part D increased the number of therapeutic classes to which seniors receive drugs by approximately four classes. Part D also lead to increased usage of drugs used to treat upper respiratory disease, hypertension, and diabetes. Originality/value – While mostly concurring with previous studies on the spending impacts of Part D, this paper is the first to shed light on other impacts of Part D, specifically with respect to its impact on therapeutic classes for which drugs are prescribed.

scholarly journals Loss aversion, overconfidence of investors and their impact on market performance evidence from the US stock markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (50) ◽  
pp. 451-478
Author(s):  
Ahmed Bouteska ◽  
Boutheina Regaieg
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Company Performance ◽  
Service Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The current study aims to investigate the impacts of two behavioral biases, namely, loss aversion and overconfidence on the performance of US companies. First, the impact of loss aversion on the economic performance of companies was assessed. Second, the impact of overconfidence on market performance was discussed. Design/methodology/approach This study used around 6,777 quarterly observations on the population of US-insured industrial and services companies over the 2006-2016 period. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression in two panel data models were used to test the hypotheses formulated for the study. Findings It was documented that the loss-aversion bias negatively affects the economic performance of companies and this is achieved for both sectors. In contrast, the findings suggest that overconfidence positively affects market performance of industrial firms but negatively affects market performance in service firms. Further robust evidence was found that overconfidence bias seems to be dominant, and hence, investors may tend to be more overconfident rather than more loss-averse. Originality/value This research can be extended by focusing on the following question: What is the impact of the contradictory (positive and negative) effects of an investor's loss aversion and overconfidence on the US company performance in case of realization of a stock market crisis or stock market crash?

scholarly journals Early supplier integration in the US defense industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garrett Lane Cohee ◽  
Jeff Barrows ◽  
Rob Handfield
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
New Product Development ◽  
Defense Industry ◽  
Supplier Management ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Supplier Integration ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Each year, the US defense industry outsources nearly $400 bn of domestic goods and services through competitive bids. These procurement activities are quite often complex and specialized in nature because of a highly regulated federal acquisition contracting environment. Ongoing calls to improve supplier management and drive innovation in the defense industry offers an opportunity to adopt Early Supplier Integration (ESI) initiatives that have proven successful in the private sector. This paper identifies critical ESI activities and acquisition practices that the defense industry should adopt to ensure enhanced effectiveness in new product development. Design/methodology/approach Leveraging a conceptual ESI model derived from the research, an in-depth case study of 12 product development projects from a major defense contractor was performed. In the context of project performance, critical ESI activities and moderating effects were assessed. Findings Three key ESI activities have the greatest impact on aggregate project performance: system design involvement, design adjustment opportunities and design for manufacturability/assembly/testability involvement. Use of formal supplier agreements also significantly impacts project performance during the development phase. In addition, project complexity and product team maturity were identified as environment moderators; higher complexity projects tended to negatively moderate the impact of ESI upon performance, and higher team maturity levels tended to positively moderate the impact of ESI upon performance. Originality/value The results provide a sound framework for empirical validation through future quantitative studies and defense industry analyses. In addition, insights and recommendations for interpretation and adaptation of federal acquisition regulations to allow increased utilization of ESI within the defense industry are substantiated.

Do Indian stock market sentiments impact contemporaneous returns?

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-346
Author(s):  
Divya Aggarwal ◽  
Pitabas Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of Indian investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns of Bombay Stock Exchange, National Stock Exchange and various sectoral indices in India by developing a sentiment index. Design/methodology/approach The study uses principal component analysis to develop a sentiment index as a proxy for Indian stock market sentiments over a time frame from April 1996 to January 2017. It uses an exploratory approach to identify relevant proxies in building a sentiment index using indirect market measures and macro variables of Indian and US markets. Findings The study finds that there is a significant positive correlation between the sentiment index and stock index returns. Sectors which are more dependent on institutional fund flows show a significant impact of the change in sentiments on their respective sectoral indices. Research limitations/implications The study has used data at a monthly frequency. Analysing higher frequency data can explain short-term temporal dynamics between sentiments and returns better. Further studies can be done to explore whether sentiments can be used to predict stock returns. Practical implications The results imply that one can develop profitable trading strategies by investing in sectors like metals and capital goods, which are more susceptible to generate positive returns when the sentiment index is high. Originality/value The study supplements the existing literature on the impact of investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns in the context of a developing market. It identifies relevant proxies of investor sentiments for the Indian stock market.

scholarly journals Does intellectual property rights protection affect UK and US outward FDI and earnings from FDI? A sectoral analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Glauco De Vita ◽  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Emmanouil Trachanas ◽  
Yun Luo
Keyword(s):  
Intellectual Property ◽  
Property Rights ◽  
Intellectual Property Rights ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intellectual Property Rights Protection ◽  
The Us ◽  
Disaggregated Data ◽  
The Impact

PurposeDespite decades of research, the relationship between intellectual property rights (IPRs) and foreign direct investment (FDI) remains ambiguous. Using a recently developed patent enforcement index (along with a broader IPR index) and a large sectoral country-to-country FDI dataset, the authors revisit the FDI-IPR relationship by testing the impact of IPRs on UK and US outward FDI (OFDI) flows as well as earnings from outward FDI (EOFDI).Design/methodology/approachThe authors use disaggregated data for up to 9 distinct sectors of economic activity from both the US and UK for OFDI flows and EOFDI, for a panel of up to 42 developed and developing countries over sample periods from 1998 to 2015. The authors employ a panel fixed effects (FE) approach that allows exploiting the longitudinal properties of the data using Driscoll and Kraay's (1998) nonparametric covariance matrix estimator.FindingsThe authors do not find any consistent evidence in support of the hypothesis that countries' strength of IPR protection or enforcement affects inward FDI, or that sector of investment matters. The results prove robust to sensitivity checks that include an alternative broader measure of IPR strength, analyses across sub-samples disaggregated according to the strength of countries' IPRs as well as developing vs developed economies and an extended specification accounting for dynamic effects of the response of FDI to both previous investment levels and IPR (patent) protection.Originality/valueThe authors make use of the largest most granular sectoral country-to-country FDI dataset employed to date in the analysis of the FDI-IPR nexus with disaggregated data for OFDI and EOFDI across up to 9 distinct sectors of economic activity from both the US and UK The authors employ a more sophisticated measure of IPR strength, the patent index proposed by Papageorgiadis et al. (2014), which places emphasis on the effectiveness of enforcement practices as perceived by managers, together with the overall administrative effectiveness and efficiency of the national patent system.

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