South Africa fragility to weigh on interest rate call

Subject South Africa's upcoming credit rating and interest rate decisions. Significance Fitch Ratings yesterday said it would not downgrade South Africa to 'junk' when it conducts its mid-year sovereign credit rating review. This is despite structural weaknesses in the economy, uncertainty over the management of power utility Eskom and possible disruptive strikes. The relatively doveish South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will monitor closely the effects of a strengthening dollar on the wider economy. Impacts The Eskom board's plan to remove controversial chairman Zola Tsotsi could be complicated by his alleged links to President Jacob Zuma. The murky nuclear 'deal' with Russia allows the state to appear to have a long-term energy plan, but raises governance concerns. Frustration over Eskom's mismanagement could expedite legislation allowing greater state intervention, but this could worsen the problem. The fiscal shock of a high public wage settlement could be cushioned by a 'contingency fund', but risks incentivising future high demands.

Significance A former South African Reserve Bank (SARB) governor and minister of labour, Mboweni faces a crucial first few weeks in his new post as the government attempts to placate rating agencies and engineer an economic turnaround. Mboweni’s initial moves may be determined by Moody’s credit rating review expected today. Impacts In the short term, Mboweni’s appointment will be a boost for Ramaphosa’s bid for fiscal consolidation and growth. In the medium-to-long term, Mboweni will likely prove a more polarising figure inside the ANC than Nene. Allegations linking the Economic Freedom Fighters with a major banking scandal could give Mboweni and the ANC an early political 'win'. Mboweni's previous social media utterances could be further exploited by opponents, both left and right, in the months ahead.


Significance This comes amid reports that the state-owned airline will shortly receive a 10-billion-rand (760-million-dollar) bailout from the government, with almost 7 billion rand in debts due to lenders by September 30. The performance of South Africa's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has featured prominently in rating agencies' downgrade assessments; Moody's cut embattled power utility Eskom's credit rating in June. Impacts The dismissal of SOE officials implicated in Gupta-related corruption allegations will prove only a partial solution to institutional rot. Dampened growth of between 0.5-1.0% this year could be further worsened by additional state financing of SOEs. The South African Reserve Bank's recent mandate court victory will only temporarily allay concerns over its institutional independence.


Subject South Africa-Russia cooperation on nuclear energy. Significance Fitch Ratings yesterday warned of a possible credit rating downgrade later in the year, partly due to weak growth linked to power supply woes. President Jacob Zuma outlined the government's long-term energy security plan in his February 12 state of the nation address, though subsequent attention on the details of a nuclear 'deal' with Russia reveal secretive diplomacy and governance problems. Impacts The start of power production at Eskom's long-delayed Medupi power station will begin to ease supply woes -- but slowly. Johannesburg's plan to generate power from biogas could encourage other cities to implement independent programmes. State plans to generate 23 billion rand to help Eskom by selling "non-strategic" assets could be resisted by affected ministries and unions.


Significance Tsotsi faces a potential no-confidence vote over his handling of the utility's mounting crises which are imperiling power supplies and recently spurred the utility's second 'junk' credit rating. On March 12, Tsotsi had persuaded the board to suspend the utility's top four executives but it now accuses him of acting in bad faith, possibly under pressure from powerful political interests. Impacts The suspended chief executive's reinstatement is unlikely to improve Eskom's performance given his lack of energy sector experience. Fiscal constraints will keep an expanded nuclear power programme a distant ambition. Governance woes may strengthen US moves on South Africa to increase physical security around its enriched uranium reserves.


Subject South African reform dillemmas. Significance The rand dropped to eight-month lows last week amid conflicting signals from the ruling ANC on changing the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). This followed news of the worst first-quarter economic decline in a decade. Renewed question marks have been raised over President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ability to gain consensus on economic policy and to provide the policy certainty that investors desperately seek. Impacts The 27.6% unemployment rate (over 50% for young people) will likely edge higher, providing fertile ground for social protest and crime. Weakness in the rand could re-ignite concerns about inflation, making an interest rate cut less likely this year despite weak growth. The government's reluctance to put South African Airways into business rescue may force it to try to bring in a strategic equity partner.


Headline SOUTH AFRICA: Reserve Bank will prioritise prudence


2017 ◽  
Vol 119 (12) ◽  
pp. 2880-2902
Author(s):  
Rodney Graeme Duffett ◽  
Crystal Foster

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine whether there is a difference in the development of shopping lists and use of advertisements as pre-store food-buying practices in terms of planned shopping by South African consumers who dwell in different socio-economic status (SES) areas. The paper also considers the influence of shopper and socio-demographic characteristics on pre-store food-buying practices in a developing country. Design/methodology/approach A self-administered questionnaire was used to survey 1 200 consumers in retail stores in low, middle and high SES areas in South Africa. A generalised linear model was employed for the statistical analysis of pre-store food-buying practices within the SES area groups in a developing country. Findings South African consumers that reside in high SES area displayed the largest of shopping list development, while consumers who dwell in low SES areas showed the highest incidence of advertisement usage. Several shopper and socio-demographic characteristics were also found to have an influence on pre-store food-buying practices in different SES areas in South Africa. Research limitations/implications A qualitative approach would offer a deeper understanding of consumers’ pre-store food shopping predispositions as opposed to the quantitative approach, which was adopted for this study. A longitudinal design would also provide a more extensive representation of pre-store food shopping practices over a longer time frame than cross-sectional research. The survey was conducted on Saturdays, whereas consumers who shop during the week may have different shopping and socio-demographic characteristics. Practical implications Astute food brands, marketers and grocery stores could use the findings of this study to assist with their marketing efforts that they direct at consumers in different SES areas in South Africa and other developing countries. Social implications The findings of this study may assist consumers in developing countries, especially those who reside in low SES areas, with food-buying strategies to reduce food costs, make wiser purchase decisions and reduce shopping. Originality/value No study (to the best of the researchers’ knowledge) has considered shopping list development and use of advertisements’ pre-store food-buying practices in different SES areas in a developing country. Furthermore, there is a dearth of research analysing shopper and socio-demographic characteristics in relation to pre-store food-buying practices among different SES areas in developing and developed countries.


2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-83
Author(s):  
Jenny Raubenheimer ◽  
John Stephen van Niekerk

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review interlending development in South Africa and current trends in interlending. Design/methodology/approach – Literature study and survey. Findings – Interlending is still an essential service in South Africa. Interlending systems must be used effectively to ensure rapid delivery of requested interlibrary loans. There is a significant use of WorldShare ILL, but there is a scope for substantial development. Research limitations/implications – This is not a comprehensive study but focusses on current interlending activities at some of the larger South African academic and special libraries and the use of Online Computer Library Centre systems. Practical implications – The paper provides some historical information and the extent of current interlending and systems used. Social implications – The paper gives an indication of the value of interlending in South Africa and its contribution to information provision. Originality/value – The paper provides a snapshot of interlending in South Africa and areas for development.


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