Moldovan political crisis heralds possible snap poll

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Organisations ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mayoral Elections ◽  
International Pressure

Significance This follows the June 12 resignation of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici, after his alleged misleading of parliament about his educational record. His resignation culminates a short but troubled time in office, dominated by the repercussions of a damaging banking scandal that has cost Moldova 1 billion dollars. Despite their strong showing in the June 14 local and mayoral elections, Moldova's pro-EU parties may struggle to replicate their success on a national scale and -- importantly -- to form a robust future coalition. Impacts As Moldova remains too weak to assert its role in the Transnistria crisis, the breakaway province will remain firmly under Russian control. International organisations may suspend the introduction of new assistance programmes until the political crisis has been resolved. International pressure on Chisinau to find those responsible for the missing 1 billion dollars will grow and protests could escalate.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Tunisia Nidaa divisions will benefit Ennahda in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Partner ◽  
Government Coalition

Significance Negotiations between coalition government parties and other major political players to agree on a new document outlining the government’s path forward (the ‘Carthage II Agreement’) stalled in late May over whether to replace Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and reshuffle the cabinet. A faction of the ruling Nidaa Tounes party led by its executive chairman, Hafedh Essebsi (son of Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi), called for the dismissal of the prime minister, who is also from Nidaa Tounes. Nidaa’s government coalition partner, the Islamist Ennahda, opposed the move. Impacts Insecurity over the government’s future will complicate key economic and security reforms. The political crisis will deter foreign investment. Friction between rival Nidaa Tounes factions will weaken popular confidence in politics.

Albanian crisis will hold off reform needed for EU

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Abroad ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Political Battle

Significance In the political battle between Prime Minister Edi Rama and President Ilir Meta, parliament -- which is dominated by Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) -- wants to impeach the president following his attempt to cancel the June 30 local elections. Meta’s move was prompted by the decision of the main opposition parties, including the centre-right Democratic Party (PD), to boycott the poll. Impacts Failure to resolve the political crisis will delay the opening of Albania’s accession talks with the EU. The political uncertainty will dampen economic growth, which slowed markedly in the first quarter of 2019. A deteriorating business environment will weaken foreign direct investment inflows. If economic performance remains subdued, it could result in more Albanian migrants seeking work abroad.

Ethiopia faces rocky path to landmark elections

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Identity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
Reform Project ◽  
Job Growth ◽  
Slow Progress

Subject Political outlook ahead of 2020 elections. Significance The June 22 assassinations of Amhara region’s president and the nation’s military chief of staff sent shockwaves through Ethiopia. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reform drive since 2018 has taken some significant steps towards liberalisation but has also provided opportunities for populist politicians to mobilise on the basis of polarising narratives. The June attacks brought these threats into stark relief and raises difficult questions about the next phase of the reform project, particularly elections scheduled for May 2020. Impacts The political crisis will interfere with proposed economic reforms, notably partial privatisation of key state-owned enterprises. Preoccupation with domestic crises may limit Abiy’s attention to regional peace efforts, in which he has until now had a central role. Increasing political mobilisation along pan-Ethiopian versus local identity lines threatens to undermine centrist, moderate politics. Frustrations will grow over what many see as slow progress, particularly in terms of job growth.

West may help resolve Macedonia's political impasse

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bargaining Power ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
Eu Countries

Significance Opposition Social Democratic Alliance (SDSM) supporters are angry with the president's unexpected pardon for all those being investigated for involvement in Macedonia's wiretapping scandal, which disproportionately benefits officials of the ruling Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE). The pardon coincided with the VMRO-DPMNE speaker of parliament fixing early elections for June 5 and the VMRO-DPMNE caretaker prime minister, Emil Dimitriev, annulling key decisions (including personnel appointments) of the SDSM's interior and labour ministers. Parliament had been dissolved in April over SDSM objections, which retaliated by boycotting the elections. Impacts All influential players at home and abroad have a vested interest in a workable compromise despite Macedonian brinkmanship and rhetoric. Deep political divisions within the ethnic majority will increase the role of minority Albanian politicians. This will improve minority bargaining power both domestically and internationally. VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM agree on the migrant issue and have the support of interested EU countries. Macedonia's borders will, therefore, be vigorously protected despite the political crisis.

Israeli anti-Hezbollah axis with Riyadh will weaken

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Alliance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Golden Opportunity ◽  
Military Preparedness

Significance He exhorted Riyadh to take the “golden opportunity” of a strategic alliance with Washington to confront Iranian extremism, and threatened to attack the advanced missile factories he said Iran was building for Shia movement Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah had already spiked in Lebanon because of the political crisis following the November 4 resignation of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, widely seen as part of a regional proxy confrontation between Riyadh and Tehran. Impacts Support for the Saudi position in Lebanon will not spur Israel to military action on Riyadh's behalf. Nasrallah could make some compromises, including partial pullback from Syria, to keep Hariri in office. Israeli forces in the Golan Heights will step up military preparedness for possible provocations from Syria. A rise in tensions on the Gaza border could lead to Israeli attacks on leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Damascus.

Albania will try harder to meet EU calls for reform

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government ◽  
Made In

Significance The Council’s move reflected, inter alia, the slow progress made in the reform of Albania’s judiciary. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Edi Rama’s ruling Socialist Party (PS) says it is still intent on impeaching President Ilir Meta and the opposition continues to call for early elections. Impacts The EU’s decision will probably prompt the government to be more accommodating towards Meta and the opposition. As the process of EU integration slows, Albania will forge closer ties with neighbours. Uncertainty over Albania’s EU prospects and the political crisis will hurt GDP growth, which in January-June was the slowest in four years.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

Power and the poisoned chalice: A provocation

Leadership ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-132
Author(s):  
Keith Grint
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Leaders And Followers

Power, however defined, is something we usually consider as indelibly linked to leadership, as something all leaders and followers seek to obtain, retain, and deploy for good or ill, for themselves or others. But there are occasions when power might be something to avoid, especially when it comes tainted with deleterious consequences, rather like the Christian fable of the poisoned chalice. In this brief provocation, I provide examples where this is self-evident but often only in retrospect. Thus, the infamous ‘stab-in-the-back’ saw the German Social Democrats take power, just before the armistice was signed in 1918. At the time of writing (October 2019), the British are on the verge of a General Election and whoever wins, whoever becomes Prime Minister, will also be held responsible for the fallout from BREXIT – irrespective of their role in generating the political crisis; sometimes, it might be better not to seek power.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

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