Tunisia Nidaa divisions will benefit Ennahda in 2019

Significance Negotiations between coalition government parties and other major political players to agree on a new document outlining the government’s path forward (the ‘Carthage II Agreement’) stalled in late May over whether to replace Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and reshuffle the cabinet. A faction of the ruling Nidaa Tounes party led by its executive chairman, Hafedh Essebsi (son of Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi), called for the dismissal of the prime minister, who is also from Nidaa Tounes. Nidaa’s government coalition partner, the Islamist Ennahda, opposed the move. Impacts Insecurity over the government’s future will complicate key economic and security reforms. The political crisis will deter foreign investment. Friction between rival Nidaa Tounes factions will weaken popular confidence in politics.

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.


Subject The political and economic outlook for Mongolia. Significance The economic outlook for Mongolia is much improved under the premiership of Chimed Saikhanbileg, but the country now faces a political test to avoid reversals. Strains have already come to a head within the coalition government and elections next year will exacerbate tensions. Impacts Geopolitical and regional development factors play to Mongolia's advantage. The coming months will decide the election and thereby set the tone for government for the following four years. A pro-business, pro-foreign investment outcome would lift Mongolia's fortunes. Narrower, inward-looking and resource nationalist ascendency would raise renewed questions about the country's economic viability.


Subject New coalition government. Significance Three months on from early elections, Kosovo has a new coalition government comprising the incumbent Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), the Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), the New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and Srpska List, headed by Prime Minister and AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj. Its prospects for survival are not good. Impacts Excluding Vetevendosje from government may bring further unrest, motivated by persistent poverty and anger with the political establishment. Serbia has charged Haradinaj with war crimes; his appointment will therefore complicate relations between Prishtina and Belgrade. Kosovo’s dynamics will have read-across in Macedonia, where the second-largest party has also gained power with ethnic minority support.


Significance In the political battle between Prime Minister Edi Rama and President Ilir Meta, parliament -- which is dominated by Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) -- wants to impeach the president following his attempt to cancel the June 30 local elections. Meta’s move was prompted by the decision of the main opposition parties, including the centre-right Democratic Party (PD), to boycott the poll. Impacts Failure to resolve the political crisis will delay the opening of Albania’s accession talks with the EU. The political uncertainty will dampen economic growth, which slowed markedly in the first quarter of 2019. A deteriorating business environment will weaken foreign direct investment inflows. If economic performance remains subdued, it could result in more Albanian migrants seeking work abroad.


Author(s):  
Werner Distler

Abstract Amidst the arrival of the Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Kosovo, the new coalition government of Vetevendosje and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) under the leadership of Prime Minister Kurti (Vetevendosje) collapsed after a vote of no confidence on 25 March 2020. On the surface, the vote, initiated by LDK, was the consequence of a conflict over the appropriate Corona strategy. A two-month power struggle under the extraordinary circumstances of Corona-related restriction followed, resulting in a new LDK-led government in early June. The political crisis in Kosovo in the early-phase of Corona has to be analyzed against the background of a political crisis with legacies in the post-conflict period, the polarization between Vetevendosje and other parties, and the strong influence of external actors in Kosovo. In this forum article, I ask how the discourse on the “state of emergency” and the pandemic has influenced power struggles in Kosovo and how the conflicts have challenged the democratic competition and institutions. My main argument is that the pandemic indeed did not lead to any form of cooperation, but the political competitors used the pandemic for an intensification of their power struggle, which—for now—led to the restoration of a government of established elites, supported by diplomatic interventions from external actors.


Author(s):  
Federico de Montalvo Jääskeläinen

In 2011 the British Parliament approved, within the context of the coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, what can be seen as the most significant constitutional reform that the British government has undertaken in recent decades. This reform, called Fixed-term Parliament Act, 2011, restricts what was one of the main rights of the Prime Minister; dissolving the chamber in order to be able to call early elections. The reform is not motivated by an attempt to overcome the political crisis, similar to other European countries, that the UK is experiencing, but rather by the new demands that seem to derive from the current coalition government. It is certainly a reform that merits analysis by other nations, such as our own, in which fragmented parliaments are growing ever more likely, lacking strong majorities and posing problems that go beyond politics to the heart of the system.En 2011 el Parlamento británico aprobó, al amparo del acuerdo de coalición entre los conservadores y liberal-demócratas, la que puede considerarse la principal reforma constitucional a la que se ha visto sometido la forma de gobierno británica en las últimas décadas. Dicha reforma, bajo el nombre de Fixed-term Parliaments Act, 2011, supuso la supresión de una de las principales facultades del Primer Ministro, la de disolver la Cámara y convocar anticipadamente elecciones generales. Dicha reforma responde no tanto a la pretensión de superar la crisis política que vive el Reino Unido, similar a la que viven otros Estados europeos, sino a las nuevas exigencias que parecen derivarse del actual gobierno de coalición. En todo caso, se trata ciertamente de una reforma que merece la pena ser analizada desde otros Estados, como el nuestro, en los que se presagia un nuevo Parlamento muy fragmentado, sin mayorías de gobierno, con las consecuencias no sólo políticas que ello va seguramente a conllevar.


Significance This follows the June 12 resignation of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici, after his alleged misleading of parliament about his educational record. His resignation culminates a short but troubled time in office, dominated by the repercussions of a damaging banking scandal that has cost Moldova 1 billion dollars. Despite their strong showing in the June 14 local and mayoral elections, Moldova's pro-EU parties may struggle to replicate their success on a national scale and -- importantly -- to form a robust future coalition. Impacts As Moldova remains too weak to assert its role in the Transnistria crisis, the breakaway province will remain firmly under Russian control. International organisations may suspend the introduction of new assistance programmes until the political crisis has been resolved. International pressure on Chisinau to find those responsible for the missing 1 billion dollars will grow and protests could escalate.


Significance Morocco’s inability to form a coalition government following the general election of October 2016 ended when Othmani announced on March 25 that he reached an agreement with five other parties. King Mohammed VI broke the political logjam by replacing Abdelilah Benkirane as the prime minister-designate with Othmani, another leading figure from the Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD). Impacts The government will continue to base its economic policy on keeping tight fiscal discipline. Rabat will also aspire to higher rates of growth through promoting investment and exports. The king will seek to depoliticise the economy and to keep promoting Moroccan investment in sub-Saharan Africa. Taking its cue from the king, the government is likely to set ambitious targets for improving the level of education and training.


Significance With momentum stalled on negotiations to amend the 2015 political settlement for implementation, the UN has focused instead on preparing for new parliamentary and presidential elections before the end of 2018 as a solution to the political crisis in Libya. Impacts Despite UN plans, elections are unlikely to take place before 2019. Failure to recognise the importance of sequencing risks perpetuating Libya’s anarchic transition period. Sustained oil sector recovery will not entice foreign investment back without a unified government.


Subject Political outlook ahead of 2020 elections. Significance The June 22 assassinations of Amhara region’s president and the nation’s military chief of staff sent shockwaves through Ethiopia. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reform drive since 2018 has taken some significant steps towards liberalisation but has also provided opportunities for populist politicians to mobilise on the basis of polarising narratives. The June attacks brought these threats into stark relief and raises difficult questions about the next phase of the reform project, particularly elections scheduled for May 2020. Impacts The political crisis will interfere with proposed economic reforms, notably partial privatisation of key state-owned enterprises. Preoccupation with domestic crises may limit Abiy’s attention to regional peace efforts, in which he has until now had a central role. Increasing political mobilisation along pan-Ethiopian versus local identity lines threatens to undermine centrist, moderate politics. Frustrations will grow over what many see as slow progress, particularly in terms of job growth.


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