Zannini could overshadow two presidents in Argentina

Subject A profile of vice-presidential candidate Carlos Zannini. Significance President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner chose her right-hand man, Carlos Alberto Zannini, to second Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli on the ruling Frente para la Victoria's (FPV's) ticket for the October presidential elections. Scioli currently leads opinion polls, appearing well placed to give the ruling FPV coalition another four years in office. Impacts At the very least, Zannini's nomination could soften or postpone an eventual business-friendly turn in a Scioli administration. Zannini's ambitions might eventually lead him to clash openly with Scioli, creating rifts in the ruling coalition. His nomination could put an end to the Kirchner family's dominance, though not to the populist policies in place since 2003.

Subject Political update. Significance Primaries are to be held on January 27 to define candidates for the October presidential elections. In practice, these are largely perfunctory since most contending parties have already selected their slates for president and vice-president. Incumbent President Evo Morales leads in opinion polls, but opposition parties continue to claim that his candidacy is unconstitutional, citing the results of a referendum on presidential term limits held in February 2016. Impacts The opposition can unite around the bid to stop Morales running, but it suffers strong personal rivalries. The plethora of old faces challenging Morales will complicate any efforts to campaign based on calls for fresh politics. Bolivia’s continued strong economic growth will assist Morales. Morales will become increasingly isolated on the wider regional stage, particularly as Venezuela’s crisis deteriorates.


Subject Election preparations. Significance On December 10, the centre-left Coalition Colombia (CC) alliance announced that Sergio Fajardo would be its candidate in the May 2018 presidential elections. The same day, the Democratic Centre (CD) of former President Alvaro Uribe (2002-10) selected Ivan Duque as its contender. Duque will now face Marta Lucia Ramirez, of the Conservative Party, to decide who will lead the centre-right electoral coalition formed in advance of the vote. Despite the respectable poll ratings of several other candidates, the contest looks likely to become a race between the Fajardo and Uribista coalitions. Impacts FARC presidential candidate Rodrigro Londono Echeverri has negligible support in polls, and is unlikely to do well. Duque’s popularity may rise as campaigning advances and more people become aware that he is Uribe’s candidate. Pension and public spending reforms will be needed under the next government to reduce the deficit and comply with statutory fiscal rules.


Significance Both leading presidential candidates are at an age where COVID-19 represents a potential mortal threat. Laws and party rules exist to deal with the death of a presidential candidate before an election and up until the inauguration. These would face a stern test if triggered this time. Impacts If anyone other than the leading candidate became president, they would suffer weakened legitimacy. If the winning candidate died before inauguration, both parties would field significantly younger candidates from 2024. Rival foreign powers might try to exploit US distraction if executive authority looked uncertain.


Subject Bolivia election update. Significance With less than two months until the re-run of the presidential elections on May 3, opinion polls put the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement towards Socialism, MAS) well ahead of its rivals. This complicates the efforts of Bolivia’s right-wing interim administration to prevent the party’s return to government. Meanwhile a paper by researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has questioned the veracity of the Organization of American States (OAS) report that led to the aborting of October’s elections and the ouster of former President Evo Morales. MIT has distanced itself from the paper, saying the researchers involved were not working on its behalf but rather as contractors for the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). Impacts The report questioning the fraud findings could undermine faith in the OAS as a neutral observer, whether it is substantiated or not. The MAS is unlikely to retain its majority in the Legislative Assembly. Difficult economic choices will test the eventual election victor.


Subject Developments ahead of the presidential elections. Significance Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga on March 26 completed a tour of the insecure northern and central regions. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita has been accused of sluggishness in pushing the peace process in the north forward, but Maiga -- appointed in December -- has injected fresh momentum into the government’s approach. Keita is likely to stand for a second term in presidential elections scheduled in July. Impacts Restoring security in central Mali will be difficult, after years of violence that has fuelled inter-communal mistrust and resentments. The ADEMA party has yet to choose a presidential candidate -- if any -- and it is unclear whether it will support Keita in the elections. The G5 Sahel force should lead to a more focused military effort in the frontier region between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.


2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-72
Author(s):  
Luky Sandra Amalia ◽  
Aisah Putri Budiatri ◽  
Mouliza KD. Sweinstani ◽  
Atika Nur Kusumaningtyas ◽  
Esty Ekawati

In the 2019 election, the proportion of women elected to Indonesia’s People’s Representative Assembly ( Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, DPR) increased significantly to almost 21 per cent. In this article, we ask whether an institutional innovation – the introduction of simultaneous presidential and legislative elections – contributed to this change. We examine the election results, demonstrating that, overall, women candidates did particularly well in provinces where the presidential candidate nominated by their party won a majority of the vote. Having established quantitatively a connection between results of the presidential elections and outcomes for women legislative candidates, we turn to our qualitative findings to seek a mechanism explaining this outcome. We argue that the simultaneous elections helped women candidates by easing their access to voters who supported one of the presidential candidates, but who were undecided on the legislative election. Rather than imposing additional burdens on female candidates, simultaneous elections assisted them.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Helena Henriques ◽  
Silvina Renee Elias

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the European and Latin America urban cultural policies that could enhance cultural and creative sustainable tourism products development. Design/methodology/approach The methodological framework is based on a comparative case study regarding the importance, dynamics and policies associated to cultural and creative tourism in four Ibero-American cities, namely, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Lisbon and Madrid. Findings This exploratory analysis underlines the growing importance of cultural and creative tourism in the four capital cities. On one hand, cities reveal different tourism impacts and, on the other hand, they are associated to different cultural and creative sector structures. Cities cultural and creative performance put in evidence that sustainable cities index, global talent competitiveness index and cultural and creative cities monitor, tend to position Madrid in the first place followed by, Lisbon, Buenos Aires and Brasilia. Research limitations/implications In general, and despite the importance of space in the creative process, there is little research on the geography of the creative industries and there is a lack of cross-country comparative studies so that it is difficult to assess the particularities of each model of creativity. Practical implications Cities could enhance more efforts in investing, not only in the traditional cultural infrastructures but also on the new forms of culture, new technologies, new makers, new audiences based on their attributes, activities and labels, in a framework of urban sustainable policies based on “innovation,” “inclusiveness” and “interconnectivity.” Originality/value The originality of the paper lies in the comparative analysis of four cities based on cultural and creative sector and tourism interconnections. Simultaneously, it lies in an exploratory model application.


Significance However, ahead of the November 14 legislative elections, JxC will have to mend internal divisions between moderates and hardliners, respond to the challenge posed by new right-wing forces, and postpone debates about their 2023 presidential candidate. Impacts Neither JxC nor the FdT as yet has a clear presidential frontrunner for 2023. Victories by Rodriguez Larreta’s allies in the November elections would strengthen his leadership within the coalition. JxC will continue to face challenges related to Macri’s widespread rejection and criticism of his government. Hardliners in JxC will push for a more confrontational stance against the Peronist government, which could backfire.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-59
Author(s):  
Jacques Lemmink

Abstract ‘Proved effective on trial, we can speak of an achieved ideal’ Abraham Kuyper and the mechanical voting machine, c. 1895-1905 During the latest presidential elections in the United States, unfounded conspiracy theories sprung up concerning alleged ballot box fraud by compromised voting machines. Although different voting machines had been used in the Netherlands since 1966, concerns over their reliability ended this in 2007. This article investigates the forgotten but ultimately failed attempt to introduce mechanical voting machines a century earlier. It focuses on the role played by prominent politician Abraham Kuyper, who personally visited the Standard Voting Machine Company in Rochester in 1898. The article illustrates how Kuyper’s transatlantic political and religious networks facilitated the voting machine’s transfer, rather than scientific connections. Paradoxically, the introduction of proportional representation in 1917 marked the end of tentative attempts to develop a Dutch version of the American mechanical voting machine. The implementation in the voting process turned out be too expensive, too early, and too complicated for the Dutch electoral system at the dawn of the twentieth century.


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