Bolivia split opposition suggests another Morales win

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Stage ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Political update. Significance Primaries are to be held on January 27 to define candidates for the October presidential elections. In practice, these are largely perfunctory since most contending parties have already selected their slates for president and vice-president. Incumbent President Evo Morales leads in opinion polls, but opposition parties continue to claim that his candidacy is unconstitutional, citing the results of a referendum on presidential term limits held in February 2016. Impacts The opposition can unite around the bid to stop Morales running, but it suffers strong personal rivalries. The plethora of old faces challenging Morales will complicate any efforts to campaign based on calls for fresh politics. Bolivia’s continued strong economic growth will assist Morales. Morales will become increasingly isolated on the wider regional stage, particularly as Venezuela’s crisis deteriorates.

Sendic departure may boost Uruguayan government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's political and economic outlook. Significance Vice-President Raul Sendic, elected in November 2014, resigned on September 9 as he faced legal and political questions relating to corruption allegations. His departure is a stain on the leftist government’s ethical credentials but opens up the possibility of improved coordination between the executive and legislature to expedite plans that are delayed or blocked in Congress. It comes as second-quarter data demonstrate economic growth, although public opinion remains gloomy. Impacts Growth will be insufficient to boost employment or consumer confidence this year. Sendic’s resignation was a setback but may have longer-term positive implications for the government. The FA may nevertheless struggle to retain the presidency in 2019, after 15 years in office.

Nicaragua pandemic downplaying is a political gamble

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Social Impacts ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Economic And Social Impacts ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Some initiatives have been introduced to help counter the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, but the government’s actions appear to be driven less by the need to address the health crisis than by a desire to shore up political support ahead of elections next year. Impacts Opposition parties are beginning to forge electoral alliances in the hope of benefitting from popular frustration with the government. Trade and investment into Nicaragua will remain minimal, with external firms wary about the potential prevalence of COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will affect the potential for US aid and investment.

President Deby's rule in Chad is secure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Military Deployments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
The Government

Significance President Idriss Deby came to power in a military take-over in 1990 and has won presidential elections four times since then, having modified the constitution in 2004 to remove term limits. Impacts Chad will maintain its regional military deployments. The government will look for more international support to help it cope with budgetary pressures. Foreign investment inflows will remain low.

Transitional Politics in Bangladesh: A Study of Sattar's Interim Presidency

1983 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-280
Author(s):  
Shaukat Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Modus Operandi ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Nationalist Party ◽  
Army Hospital ◽  
International Commitments ◽  
Intelligence Services ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

President Ziaur Rahman's assassination at the hands of miscreants in the vort of Chittagong in May 1981 stunned his compatriots. Zia was the first popularly elected president with a 77 per cent electoral mandate. His youth, igour and dedication had earned him the respect of his countrymen. He was he only President to establish genuine and regular political contact with the ural majority, bringing to them the promise of a better life. And in the eyes f the informed public he had pulled Bangladesh out of the backwaters of the sian sub-continent into the glare of international limelight. But his sudden eath threw the nation into chaos and uncertainty, and a resolute adherance the Constitution seemed to be the only modus operandi ad interim. The mediate reaction of the government, the opposition parties and the armed ervices to the news of the assassination was a spirited portrayal of national nity. With Zia's Cabinet still intact, the ailing septuagenarian Vice President, bdus Sattar, was hurriedly brought from an army hospital and sworn in as e Acting President,1 pending presidential elections within 180 days as was equired by the Constitution.2 Immediately after, the new Acting President roclaimed a state of emergency3 as a step towards national consolidation. n emergency Cabinet meeting was held, following which Sattar declared his overnment's resolution to honour Zia's international commitments and carry rward his domestic policies and objectives. Next, the Chiefs of the Armed ervices, the Intelligence Services, the Bangladesh Rifles and the Police were mmoned to the “Bangabhaban,” and their total support to Sattar's interim overnment was publicly announced. The parliamentary group of the Banglaesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the party then in power, also hurriedly met in special session to reaffirm the party's solidarity with and total support Sattar. Sattar also invited the leaders of the opposition parties to “Bangahaban” and secured assurances of their full support to his transitional governtent. The chiefs of the navy and army in their television broadcasts assured he nation of their allegiance to Sattar and their united commitment to contain he rebellion in Chittagong expeditiously. Thus, within 48 hours after Zia's ssassination, the new government managed to portray a picture of national nity and solidarity, though the national crises that loomed large were yet to e resolved.

Poll stand-off will raise instability risks in Guinea

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Protests have rocked the capital, Conakry, for the past few weeks. Since the country held its first competitive presidential election in 2010, all other polls have been subject to delays. Legislative elections eventually took place in 2013, but were disputed. Local polls last occurred in 2005. The country exists in a climate of deep political mistrust. Impacts Incomplete Ebola data raises the risk that new cases may go undetected, portending sporadic future outbreaks. However, the new US-backed African Centres for Disease Control fund will help international donors to be better prepared. Disruptions to output and investor aversion caused by Ebola are likely to slow economic growth to zero during 2015, but recover thereafter. If opposition parties opt to boycott the poll, further UN mediation may be necessary, possibly with France playing a leading role.

Reforms will strengthen Singapore opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Constitutional Changes ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Constitutional reform in Singapore. Significance Parliament is expected in August to receive recommendations on electoral and constitutional changes that will affect opposition politics and executive powers. The government raised the initiatives in parliament in January; Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said they would be beneficial to Singapore and its government. However, the measures are also likely to benefit the People's Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965. Impacts Presidential elections are unlikely to become more competitive. Opposition parties would gain parliamentary exposure if the reform recommendations are enacted. Government scrutiny of corporations' activities in the community and local politics will intensify.

Balance of power in East Africa is shifting

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Stage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ugandan Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Kiir's ally, the Ugandan government, yesterday publicly urged him to sign. However, Kampala's credibility among regional neighbours is under strain given the presence of its troops supporting the Juba government. Elsewhere, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has played an unconvincing role in the thwarted mediation process in Burundi between the government and opposition parties. These two crises have highlighted Uganda's dwindling effectiveness on the regional stage. At the same time, Kenya, supported by its relationship with Ethiopia, has begun to take on the leadership mantle. Impacts Rwanda's government will continue to enjoy a more productive relationship with Kenya than Uganda. However, Burundi's crisis keeps complicating regional ties, with Tanzania and Burundi suspecting that Rwanda had a role in the failed coup. Rwanda's poor relations with Tanzania may be healed when the latter's current president steps down ahead of October polls.

Zannini could overshadow two presidents in Argentina

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Buenos Aires ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Right Hand ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject A profile of vice-presidential candidate Carlos Zannini. Significance President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner chose her right-hand man, Carlos Alberto Zannini, to second Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli on the ruling Frente para la Victoria's (FPV's) ticket for the October presidential elections. Scioli currently leads opinion polls, appearing well placed to give the ruling FPV coalition another four years in office. Impacts At the very least, Zannini's nomination could soften or postpone an eventual business-friendly turn in a Scioli administration. Zannini's ambitions might eventually lead him to clash openly with Scioli, creating rifts in the ruling coalition. His nomination could put an end to the Kirchner family's dominance, though not to the populist policies in place since 2003.

Immigration will become an election issue in Chile

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Immigrant Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spanish Speaking ◽  
Reform Legislation

Subject The politics of immigration. Significance President Michelle Bachelet’s centre-left administration has announced plans to reform legislation on immigration in a bid to permit a more integrated public-policy approach and better guarantee immigrants’ rights. This follows calls by former President Sebastian Pinera and another possible right-wing contender in the November 2017 presidential election for tighter controls on immigration on the grounds of a relationship with crime. Impacts Immigration from Peru is showing signs of slowing in response to stronger economic growth there. Haitians will pose a new challenge as the first significant immigrant community that is not Spanish-speaking. Immigration is likely to be an important issue in this year’s legislative and presidential elections.

Poe will be decisive in Philippines 2016 election

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Front Running

Subject Update on the outlook for the 2016 presidential elections. Significance Opinion polling in June saw current Vice-President Jejomar Binay, presently the only declared 2016 presidential candidate, lose his front-running position. Although allies cite ongoing investigations of Binay as the cause, interpreting these polling results as minor and transitory, Senator Grace Poe-Llamanzares is emboldened, while Liberal Party president and current interior secretary Manuel 'Mar' Roxas is the probable Liberal Party choice. Binay is the clear opposition candidate, while Roxas and Poe will compete or cooperate for the mantle as the most likely to continue incumbent President Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino's economic reform agenda. Impacts Binay's present polling difficulties portend further losses of support, although he could recover by 2016. A Poe or Roxas presidency would probably see greater continuity with Aquino's economic reforms and foreign policy. Perceptions of Philippines macroeconomic stability would probably be higher under a Roxas or Poe presidency. A Poe or Roxas presidency would probably see continuity in Aquino's good governance and anti-corruption agenda.

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