COP21 will drive global shift away from coal

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Cost Of Production ◽  
The Cost

Subject Coal market outlook. Significance Coal producers are under pressure. For many, the price of thermal coal exports is below the cost of production plus transport. Currency depreciation and lower oil prices provide some insulation but leave high-cost US producers, in particular, in financial peril. Impacts Countries dependent on coal-export revenues will face further fiscal shortfalls. Leading exporting countries (such as Russia, Mozambique and Mongolia) will no longer get substantial revenues from coal. New investment will remain scarce as funds eschew the coal industry's low margins and risk of carbon-reduction regulation adding to costs.

Foul fundamentals will curb world coal

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Iron Ore ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Panama Canal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Panama Canal Expansion ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Asian Market ◽  
First Time

Subject Coal market outlook Significance Coal prices rallied by more than 70% in 2016 after five years of decline, making it one of the best-performing commodities last year alongside iron ore. In December 2016, the price of Australian thermal coal -- the benchmark for the Asian market -- hit 100 dollars per tonne for the first time since 2012. The price has eased to around 85 dollars, but Chinese demand remains strong -- imports rose by 33% during the first four months of the year, nearly 10% faster than in the corresponding period of 2016. Impacts Coal imports by Pakistan, Turkey and several ASEAN nations will rise to 2021, checking the deceleration of seaborne thermal coal trade. The Panama Canal expansion is allowing Colombia to export more coal to Asia and trade flows should increase as the route gains traction. Mines restarted in Indonesia and Australia at the end of 2016, but these will remain the exception to the longer trend of declining supply.

Global coal market will stay oversupplied

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Underground Mining ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Market Report ◽  
Coal Market

Subject Prospects for the global coal market. Significance Seaborne thermal coal prices are on a long-term slide. Having peaked above 130 dollars per metric tonne (mt) for thermal coal delivered into north-western Europe in 2011, prices have sunk to 52.8 dollars/mt on September 7, the lowest level since 2009. At these prices, only the lowest-cost producers can remain profitable. In its 'Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014', the International Energy Agency estimates that production costs for US Central Appalachian (CAPP) producers and Australian underground mining are close to 90 dollars/mt. Impacts Further coal sector bankruptcies and mine closures are likely. Coal will remain competitive with natural gas for power generation in most markets. Medium-term demand response will be limited by a lack of new coal plant construction and environmental regulation.

The International Coal Trade and Price Outlook

1988 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 425-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy Doyle
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Supply Curve ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
World Supply ◽  
Future Demand

The paper starts with a brief review of recent trends in the international coal market and an examination of the linkage between coal and oil prices. It is argued that while oil prices had a significant impact on coal prices in the 1973–87 period, future coal price trends will be driven more by demand and supply developments in the coal market itself. Taking thermal coal as an example, future demand and supply developments are examined. Demand and supply are brought together by using an aggregate world supply curve. The plausible range of prices for 2000 is determined by reading off the supply curve at the appropriate projected demand levels.

Coal faces continuing challenges

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Bright Spot ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
The Cost

Subject Cyclical and structural headwinds undermine confidence in coal. Significance Since the start of January, Australian benchmark coal has dropped to 62.4 dollars per metric tonne (mt), 25% lower than a year earlier. A combination of climate change-related policies, the shale gas revolution in the United States, and a decline in the cost of renewable energy has heightened competition for coal. Demand has fallen since the industry reached peak production in 2012 following a wave of investment spurred by record prices in 2008 on the back of a rapid increase in demand in the Asia Pacific region. Impacts South-east Asia will be a bright spot for coal demand, as consumption is forecasted to double in Malaysia and Thailand. South Korea's 'Eurasia Initiative' will open a new market for Russian coal, using North Korean Rajin port. Japan will promote cleaner combustion technologies, known as ultra-supercritical, as more commercially and economically viable than carbon. Japan's return to nuclear energy could end a golden era for LNG and thermal coal exports to North-east Asia.

Global coal market will decline in the long term

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Carbon Sources ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Domestic Power

Subject Outlook for global coal markets. Significance Thermal coal prices hit a record of 210 dollars per tonne in July 2008 and have declined since 2011. Last year, prices averaged 57 dollars per tonne and until recently struggled to hold above the 45 threshold. The slide is due to environmental concerns, which are shifting power generation towards low-carbon sources. After several years of 300 million tonnes (mt) yearly growth, global coal demand fell by 63 mt in 2014 and by 180 mt in 2015. Although many mines have been shut, production fell by less than demand. Impacts This year Russia may surpass its 2015 production by 10 mt, all of which will be exported. Australia's compliance with Paris emissions reduction targets may thwart domestic coal projects mulled by China's Shenhua and India's Adani. Having lost its export markets, Indonesia is redirecting its coal production towards the slated increase in domestic power generation. Colombia has entered the Indian market thanks to record-low freight rates; their increase may reduce flows to the subcontinent. Japan targets a 26% reduction in emissions for 2030 by limiting coal use to 26% of total power output.

Politics trump business in Venezuela oil outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Influence ◽  
Default Risks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Military Support ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Significance The impact of low oil prices, which have prompted a fall of more than 60% in the government's income, has been exacerbated by falling production. This raises questions about the government's ability to maintain its regional influence via organisations such as PetroCaribe and manage the risk of a default by PDVSA. Impacts Camimpeg may bolster military support for the government, but not oil output. Although falling oil prices have lowered the cost of PetroCaribe, it could yet prove unsustainable in current conditions. Chinese lending appears set to shrink amid concerns over oil output and default risks.

Designing the Maximum Permissible Production Cost of Oil and Gas Project Using Control Chart Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Abdul Azizurrofi ◽  
Yosef Setya Buana
Keyword(s):  
Control Chart ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Petroleum Exploration ◽  
Maximum Cost ◽  
Cost Of Production ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Abstract During the period of 2005 to 2020, the oil prices reached the highest level in 2008 (99.67 US$/bbl) and the lowest level in 2020 (39.16 US$/bbl). The fluctuation in oil prices will affect the expenditures for both investment and production in oil and gas projects. Based on this condition, the standardization of the costs of investment and production is needed to help the government and contractor in estimating the costs needed in an oil and gas project. As of December 2018, 471 projects (POD) have been approved by the government of Indonesia. All of them are projects that produce oil (oil projects) and gas (gas projects). In these projects, details of operating (Production) costs are included in the economic evaluation. For the purpose of this paper, Indonesia was divided into 2 areas (Onshore and Offshore). Each of the areas had 2 different types of projects (oil project and gas project). Then, to collect the data related to the cost of production and reserves, the maximum cost of production per BOE was calculated and produced using the Control Chart Analysis method. Lastly, the result was distributed to those aforementioned areas. Based on the evaluation and analysis of the cost of production from 273 oil and gas projects in Indonesia, oil and gas projects in Indonesia are economically acceptable as the maximum cost of production (US$ per BOE) is still far below the oil price (~65 US$/BBL). The following is the estimated Maximum Cost of Production generated in Indonesia: Onshore – Oil Projects (28.00 US$/BOE), Onshore - Gas Projects (12.27 US$/BOE), Offshore - Oil Projects (21.20 US$/BOE), Offshore - Gas Projects (15.95 US$/BOE). Finally, this paper will show how to produce the maximum cost of productions per BOE using control chart analysis. This paper is expected to provide references (method) for the government of Indonesia in giving approval to the cost of production proposed by contractors. In addition, this paper may provide contractors with a quick look at oil and gas industry in Indonesia, especially those who plan to invest in Indonesia. It may also help them create their petroleum exploration and exploitation strategy in Indonesia if they take this information into consideration, which will benefit both the government and contractors.

Iran's military will keep asymmetric advantage in Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Partial Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Intensity ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Strait Of Hormuz ◽  
Insurance Rates ◽  
The Cost

Significance With geopolitical tensions in the Gulf rising as a result of Saudi and Iranian involvement in Syria and Yemen, the risk of military escalation in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz persists. For this reason, Iran has been investing heavily in developing weapons capability specifically for anti-access and area denial. Impacts Any low-intensity skirmish could cause a substantial, if temporary, spike in oil prices and maritime insurance rates. Iran can use its partial control of navigation in the Strait to stop shipping and deny certain countries right of passage. The lifting of sanctions and Iran's reintegration into the world economy will further increase the cost of military action in the Gulf. Iran's asymmetric advantages will prompt GCC countries to obtain more specialised weapons and develop tactics to counter them.

Structural weaknesses hinder the coal price outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cold Weather ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Subject Coal market Significance After a sustained price decline, coal producers are taking relief from the sharp rise in thermal coal prices this year, with coal outperforming both oil and natural gas. However, looking beyond the boost from US President-elect Donald Trump’s support for US manufacturing, the price spike is largely the result of thermal coal shortages because of Indonesian and Chinese production cuts, which could be quickly reversed. Impacts The price spike since summer 2016 has returned many coal producers to a cash-positive position. Cold weather will increase demand, pushing up prices throughout the northern hemisphere winter. China is likely to take further measures to boost domestic production.

Decarbonisation goals spark more interest in hydrogen

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Lithium Ion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Point Of Use ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Zero Carbon ◽  
The Cost ◽  
And Storage

Subject Hydrogen market outlook. Significance Hydrogen is an energy carrier which is clean burning at the point of use, but its production is carbon dioxide intensive. Producing it using electrolysis is a low- or zero-carbon process but it is currently expensive and at scale would contribute to water stress in some areas. Large-scale hydrogen use is likely to be paired with natural gas use, and carbon capture and storage. Impacts Growing hydrogen demand should promote new sustainable hydrogen technologies. Hydrogen market dynamics are unlikely to affect the current strong growth in lithium-ion electric vehicles sales. Hydrogen storage could address energy storage needs but more trade will need more pipelines, or the cost of shipping it would need to fall.

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