Global coal market will decline in the long term

Subject Outlook for global coal markets. Significance Thermal coal prices hit a record of 210 dollars per tonne in July 2008 and have declined since 2011. Last year, prices averaged 57 dollars per tonne and until recently struggled to hold above the 45 threshold. The slide is due to environmental concerns, which are shifting power generation towards low-carbon sources. After several years of 300 million tonnes (mt) yearly growth, global coal demand fell by 63 mt in 2014 and by 180 mt in 2015. Although many mines have been shut, production fell by less than demand. Impacts This year Russia may surpass its 2015 production by 10 mt, all of which will be exported. Australia's compliance with Paris emissions reduction targets may thwart domestic coal projects mulled by China's Shenhua and India's Adani. Having lost its export markets, Indonesia is redirecting its coal production towards the slated increase in domestic power generation. Colombia has entered the Indian market thanks to record-low freight rates; their increase may reduce flows to the subcontinent. Japan targets a 26% reduction in emissions for 2030 by limiting coal use to 26% of total power output.

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. 147-152
Author(s):  
G. L. KRASNYANSKY ◽  
◽  
A. E. SARYCHEV ◽  

The article highlights the changes in the global thermal coal market associated with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, examines the dynamics of import volumes by key countries - consumers of thermal coal and export volumes by major exporting countries, as well as price changes in the main international markets. Analysis of changes in the global steam coal market caused by the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and a number of other objective factors demonstrates a change in the competitive positions of the largest exporting countries, which may have long-term consequences. In addition, the article examines the continuing trend of dividing the thermal coal market into the high-calorie and low-calorie thermal coal markets, which have multidirectional development prospects.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1008-1009 ◽  
pp. 89-92
Author(s):  
Yi Ti Tung ◽  
Tzu Yi Pai ◽  
Ya Chin Kang ◽  
Yu Ping Chen ◽  
Tzu Chiang Huang ◽  
...  

This study adopted analytical hierarchical process (AHP) to evaluate the significance of the criterion of policy regarding promoting biomass energy, taking environmental social groups’ points of view into consideration. The analytical results of the study are as follows. The experts from environmental social groups suggested that the most important major criteria are in the order as follows: policy criterion layer, technical criterion layer, economy criterion layer, and energy education criterion layer. As for the global weights of the criteria, the criteria with top five weights are in the order as follows: “active development of green energy industry by government”, “supply and consumption method of low-carbon and low-pollution energy”, “increase of percentage of power generation from renewable energy in total power supply”, “encourage manufacturers to develop new biomass power generation technology”, and “continually develop the technology projects which has potential and prospects in the future”.


Subject Prospects for the global coal market. Significance Seaborne thermal coal prices are on a long-term slide. Having peaked above 130 dollars per metric tonne (mt) for thermal coal delivered into north-western Europe in 2011, prices have sunk to 52.8 dollars/mt on September 7, the lowest level since 2009. At these prices, only the lowest-cost producers can remain profitable. In its 'Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014', the International Energy Agency estimates that production costs for US Central Appalachian (CAPP) producers and Australian underground mining are close to 90 dollars/mt. Impacts Further coal sector bankruptcies and mine closures are likely. Coal will remain competitive with natural gas for power generation in most markets. Medium-term demand response will be limited by a lack of new coal plant construction and environmental regulation.


Author(s):  
Heikki Liimatainen ◽  
Inger Beate Hovi ◽  
Niklas Arvidsson ◽  
Lasse Nykänen

Purpose – Road freight carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are determined by a complex interaction between shippers and hauliers within the boundaries set by regulations and economic factors. It is necessary to gain understanding about the various driving forces and trends affecting these to promote low carbon future. The purpose of this paper is to find out what factors affect the long-term future development of road freight CO2 emissions and whether the long-term emission targets will be achieved. Design/methodology/approach – An international comparison of similar Delphi surveys is carried out in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Findings – The Delphi surveys indicate that the structural change of the economy, changes of consumer habits, concerns of energy and environment and changes in logistics practices and technology are the overarching trends shaping the future of the energy efficiency and CO2 emissions of road freight transport. The expert forecasts for Finland and Sweden highlight that reaching the carbon emission target of 30 per cent reduction for the year 2030 is possible. However, the CO2 emissions may also increase significantly even though the CO2 intensity would decrease, as the Norwegian forecast shows. Originality/value – This study combined quantitative and qualitative analysis. The results confirmed that similar factors are seen to affect the future in all three countries, but with some national differences in the likely effects of the factors. Future research using the same methodology would enable wider analysis of the global significance of these driving forces.


Significance Additional EU taxes on carbon-intensive energy and other products could cost Russian industry up to EUR50bn (USD59bn) before 2030. With some corporate exceptions, Russia's response is still slow and the issue is likely to become another source of difficult, highly politicised negotiations between Brussels and Moscow. Impacts Long-term dependence on hydrocarbons increases institutional resistance to adapting to changing global attitudes. Russia's latest environmental plan envisages that greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will be higher than now. Low-carbon hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are one area where Russia is capable of significant progress.


2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Azadeh ◽  
S. Motevali Haghighi ◽  
M. Hosseinabadi Farahani ◽  
R. Yazdanparast

Purpose Concern for health, safety and environment (HSE) is increasing in many developing countries, especially in energy industries. Improving power plants efficiencies in terms of HSE issues requires considering these issues in performance assessment of power generation units. This study aims to discuss the use of data envelopment analysis methodology for the performance assessment of electrical power plants in Iran by considering HSE and conventional indicators. Design/methodology/approach Installed capacity, fuel consumption, labor cost, internal power, forced outage hours, operating hours and total power generation along with HSE indices are taken into consideration for determining the efficiency of 20 electric power plants or decision-making units (DMUs). Moreover, DMUs are ranked based on their relative efficiency scores. Findings Results show that HSE factors are significant in performance assessment of the power plants studied in this research, and among HSE factors, health has the most powerful impact on the efficiency of the power plants. Originality/value The approach of this study could be used for continuous improvement of combined HSE and conventional factors. It would also help managers to have better comprehension of key shaping factors in terms of HSE.


2017 ◽  
Vol 139 (09) ◽  
pp. 30-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Todd Davidson ◽  
Kazunori Nagasawa ◽  
Michael E. Webber

This article explains the need for producing synthetic fuels in support of making a clean and reliable energy system. This production process is expected to solve several problems at once: stabilizing intermittent electricity supply while creating renewable fuels for use in power generation, transportation, and industry. The large-scale introduction of wind and solar power now makes the production of renewable fuels at least technically feasible. Policymakers should start to give electrofuels the attention they deserve. There are many tax credits or subsidies for renewable or low-carbon sources of electricity such as wind, solar, geothermal, and nuclear, but electrofuels are not yet prominent in the discussion. In addition, while states like California have mandates for energy storage, stakeholders often ignore the option of electrofuels despite the potential for them to be a more useful and affordable competitor to batteries. The article concludes that electrofuels may provide a unique solution to a number of challenges, and it is time our markets and policies recognize that possibility.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1008-1009 ◽  
pp. 133-136
Author(s):  
Yi Ti Tung ◽  
Tzu Yi Pai ◽  
I Ting Li ◽  
Tsung Yuan Ou ◽  
Chun Ping Lin ◽  
...  

The analytical hierarchical process (AHP) was adopted in this study to determine the priority of the policy criterion related to promoting wind energy, considering the environmental practitioners’ points of view. The results were described as follows. The practitioners from environmental organizations suggested that the most important major criteria are in the following order: policy criterion layer, technical criterion layer, economy criterion layer, and energy education criterion layer. For the global weights of the criteria, the criteria with top five weights were in the order as follows: “active development of green energy industry by government”, “supply and consumption method of low-carbon and low-pollution energy”, “increase of percentage of power generation from renewable energy in total power supply”, “encourage manufacturers to develop new wind power generation technology”, and “continually develop the technology projects which has potential and prospects in the future”.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raj Shah ◽  
Mathias Woydt ◽  
Nabill Huq ◽  
Andreas Rosenkranz

Purpose This paper aims to present a comprehensive perspective on how tribology and sustainability are related and intertwined and are linked to CO2 emissions. This paper emphasizes on how tribological aspects affect everybody’s life and how tribological research and progress can improve energy efficiency, sustainability and quality of life. Design/methodology/approach Based upon available data and predictions for the next 50 years, the potential of tribological research and development is addressed. Findings The effects of tribological design can significantly increase energy savings and reduce CO2 emissions. Taking advantage of tribological technologies and applying them to current infrastructure would have the largest energy savings coming from the transportation and power generation at 25% and 20%, respectively. Implementing these technologies can also cut down global CO2 emissions by about 1,460 megatons of CO2 per year in the immediate future and 3,140 megatons of CO2 per year in the long term. The extraction and processing of resources inevitably generates CO2. Doubling the lifetime of machine components and the use of circular economy reduces the material footprint with associated reductions in CO2. Originality/value This perspective summarizes concisely the interrelation of tribology and sustainability with CO2. Peer review The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/ILT-09-2020-0356/


Subject Coal market outlook. Significance Coal producers are under pressure. For many, the price of thermal coal exports is below the cost of production plus transport. Currency depreciation and lower oil prices provide some insulation but leave high-cost US producers, in particular, in financial peril. Impacts Countries dependent on coal-export revenues will face further fiscal shortfalls. Leading exporting countries (such as Russia, Mozambique and Mongolia) will no longer get substantial revenues from coal. New investment will remain scarce as funds eschew the coal industry's low margins and risk of carbon-reduction regulation adding to costs.


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