Islamic State global expansion builds resilience

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Community ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Expansion ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extremist Groups ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group's expansion prospects Significance Over the past sixteen months, the international community has focused its campaign to counter the Islamic State group (ISG) primarily on Iraq and Syria. This approach overlooks ISG's accelerating regional affiliate programme, which gives ISG strategic resiliency outside of its "caliphate" within the two main countries. A strategy to defeat ISG cannot succeed without addressing its formal affiliates in Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Impacts ISG's affiliate in Egypt will rekindle ties with extremist groups on mainland Egypt in order to launch more attacks. ISG will encourage new supporters globally to launch spectacular terrorist attacks. Russia's escalation in Syria will aid ISG's expansion by degrading the Syrian opposition and ensuring the continuation of the civil war.

Islamic State will intensify global operations

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Extremist Groups ◽  
Military Support ◽  
State Group ◽  
Global Operations

Significance Islamic State group (ISG) claimed responsibility for the attacks. Nearly two years since its June 2014 offensive in Syria and Iraq, ISG still controls and governs significant territory. The organisation is preparing for a prolonged fight within those countries and has also scaled its efforts globally, gaining regional affiliates and launching increasingly sophisticated international attacks. Impacts ISG will use its territory in Iraq and Syria to support jihadists abroad, helping them to launch more frequent and sophisticated attacks. ISG efforts to provoke conflict will create opportunities for it and other extremist groups, particularly al-Qaida, to gain support. Uncoordinated Western military support to anti-ISG groups in Libya will likely prolong its civil war, enabling ISG's continued growth.

Social networks could counter lone-actor terrorism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Far Right ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Group

Subject Lone-actor terrorist motivations. Significance Recent lone-actor terrorist attacks in Orlando, Nice, Munich and elsewhere have made this threat salient for the public and policymakers alike. The number of lone-actor attacks has almost trebled since 1990 -- from a base rate of 5-6 per year, according to recent research. Yet the authorities find these types of attacks difficult to detect and disrupt ahead of time. Impacts Lone-actor attacks are likely to recur in the West while authorities struggle to respond. Islamic State group (ISG)-inspired lone-actor attacks may incentivise far-right lone actors to respond violently and vice-versa. The rise of encrypted messaging services and the dark net will fuel the debate around policing this problem without curbing free speech.

Syria diplomacy will make little headway

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Influence ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Significance As one of the insurgency's key external backers, Riyadh is seeking to create a united political front for the Syrian opposition ahead of proposed international talks in Vienna on ending Syria's civil war, due to begin by January 1. The Vienna process is the first serious international diplomatic effort to resolve the Syrian conflict following the failed Geneva talks in January 2014. Impacts The absence of powerful, hardline Islamist groups from the talks will limit the effectiveness of any agreement. As the war drags on, sectarian tensions and Sunni radicalisation around the region will increase. International efforts to destroy Islamic State group will fail so long as the civil war continues. The Vienna process will increase Russia's regional influence and Iran's diplomatic status.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

Stabilisation initiatives will falter in Iraq

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Aid ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Middle East Conflict ◽  
Military Campaigns ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Military Campaign

Significance These operations follow the recapture of Tikrit, Sinjar, Ramadi and Fallujah from Islamic State group (ISG) in the past 18 months. Western countries backing the government and supporting its military campaign have pledged to increase their support for initiatives to stabilise recaptured areas. However, these initiatives have significant drawbacks that limit their prospects of success. Impacts Western criticism of Baghdad's military campaigns and anti-ISG strategy will remain muted. International aid organisations will be at risk of attack. Absent meaningful reconciliation, ISG will drive new terrorist attacks in Iraq, other Middle East conflict zones and the West.

Islamic State threat looms over security in Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Religious Networks ◽  
State Position ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State threat. Significance Over the last year, Islamic State group (ISG) has expanded its presence in Indonesia. The government estimates that at least 56 Indonesians joined ISG in Iraq and Syria in mid-2014 -- a figure that may have reached 500 by end-2014. Of these, at least 200 are estimated to have returned, with some believed to be planning attacks in Indonesia. Despite the somewhat equivocal stance of national and local authorities on secularism, the threat posed by ISG to security is taken seriously. Impacts Social media and legitimate religious networks are the top two avenues for ISG recruitment in Indonesia and the broader region. Financial institutions, state buildings and tourist destinations are likely targets for terrorist attacks. Inter-regional intelligence cooperation on tackling ISG networks is likely to intensify. South-east Asian countries will seek greater US counterterrorism support. Civil society calls for a clearer state position on secularism will intensify, but they may go unheeded.

Right-wing terrorism could rise in the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Proportion ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Global Effect ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Decline ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
State Group

Subject The outlook for terrorism. Significance Terrorist activity has been increasing in recent years. The rise of the Islamic State group (ISG) has reinvigorated jihadism and inspired attacks in the West. Jihadist attacks there make a disproportionately small proportion of terrorist attacks worldwide, yet these might be the ones with the greatest global effect. Impacts ISG's loss of territory and financial sources may only result in a slow decline of global terrorism. Much will depend on governance build-up in Iraq. Additional counterterrorism funding and new laws strengthening existing measures will continue apace. Knee-jerk and over-reactive measures focusing too heavily on the symptoms of terrorism are unlikely to produce sustainable progress.

United States will pursue modest goals in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance In September 2014, the United States and coalition partners began an air campaign against Islamic State group (ISG) in Syria following its seizure of large swathes of northern and western Iraq. While these developments have not changed overall US policy in Syria -- to encourage a negotiated political settlement between regime and opposition -- they have seen Washington's focus move away from the civil war and onto counter-terrorism and containing ISG in Iraq. Impacts Islamist rebels backed by Gulf states and Turkey will dominate the insurgency and influence any post-Assad government. Efforts to destroy ISG in Iraq are unlikely to succeed so long as it retains a safe haven in Syria. US air support will help Kurds establish contiguous zone of control in northern Syria, prompting Ankara to respond. Without access to game-changing US weapons, Syrian rebels will not have the firepower needed to defeat the regime. The regime will withdraw steadily from outlying areas and consolidate its control on Damascus, the Homs-Hama corridor and western Syria.

Yemen jihadists stand to gain from Huthi conflict

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Territorial Expansion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
State Group

Significance The prison break follows a series of bombings against Huthi targets claimed by al-Qaida's rival, the Islamic State group (ISG), in the capital in recent weeks. Jihadist groups have been exploiting the escalation of the conflict between the northern Huthi movement and forces opposed to their territorial expansion and government takeover. While ISG's presence is still in its earliest stages in Yemen, Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has much deeper roots, operating both a regional terrorist organisation, and a local insurgency that seeks to hold and govern territory. Impacts AQAP will retain the capacity to carry out terrorist attacks throughout Yemen, but will have limited ability to strike abroad. Increased arms flows will increase the capability of regional terrorist groups in the Gulf and Horn of Africa. Yemen will become a key battle in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad. Without a strong central government, the social and economic disenfranchisement that fuels jihadist recruitment will continue.

Caribbean will struggle to address limited ISG threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Location ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Direct And Indirect Impacts ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
State Group

Subject Concerns over Islamic State group (ISG) activities in the Caribbean. Significance Over the past few months concerns have grown over the influence of Islamic State group (ISG) in the Caribbean. This has focused primarily on Caribbean nationals travelling to the Middle East to join ISG, and the vulnerability of the Caribbean to attacks and as a route-way north for ISG members to gain entry into the United States. Thus far the direct and indirect impacts of ISG on the region have been limited, but there are some risks. Impacts Despite relatively small numbers involved, inadequate security and geographical location will raise Caribbean concerns. Social marginalisation and poor prospects may facilitate radicalisation and recruitment to extremist groups. Within the Caribbean, the key tourism sector could be threatened.

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