Russian recession will blunt Central Asian growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Significance Russia's economic problems caused by the low price of oil and to a lesser extent Western sanctions are a challenge for Kazakhstan and the four other Central Asian states. In its 'World Economic Outlook' update in January, the IMF predicted that the CIS region excluding Russia would see modest growth of 2.3% in 2016. Impacts Economic difficulties may lead to unrest in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan particularly. The slowdown in China is a concern for all five Central Asian states because of strong trade, investment and energy ties. Foreign investors will seek high rates of return and firmer guarantees.

If Kosovo-Serbia deal fails, violence could recur

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Legal Protection ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Weak Rule

Significance Kosovo politicians are deliberating a deal with Serbia that would trade territory for recognition. Domestic opposition to a deal based on partition is high. Impacts Bosnia and Macedonia will note the emerging US position on Kosovo -- no inviolable borders, and multi-ethnicity no longer a goal in itself. Weak rule of law and lack of legal protection will deter foreign investors, fearing disputes with a politically connected counter-party. The prospect of former UCK parties leaving and neo-Marxist Vetevendosje joining the government leaves the economic outlook uncertain.

Politics will not mar Paraguay's economic outlook

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Significance The Central Bank has revised upwards its 2017 growth forecast from 3.7% to 4.2%. Forecasts by the IMF and World Bank remain lower at around 3.3% and 3.6% respectively, based primarily on an expectation of low growth in Brazil. Impacts Agricultural exports will help sustain growth this year. Although debt is manageable, there are few prospects for raising low tax revenues. Investigations into the awarding of contracts are likely to put infrastructure investments on hold.

Slower Chile growth will bring electoral challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower Middle Class ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Chile's economic outlook. Significance On July 23, in an update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF slashed its forecast for economic growth this year in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1.4% to 0.6%, due principally to a sharp cut for Brazil. By contrast, the reduction for Chile, from 3.4% to 3.2%, was small but may err on the side of optimism. Impacts Dependence on copper remains a key challenge for Chile as regards both GDP growth and fiscal revenues. Slower growth particularly worries the new lower-middle class, eager for further gains in living standards. In the foreseeable future, Chile’s economic performance will likely be constrained by external conditions.

Foreign options widen as economy recovers in Jamaica

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Subject Jamaica's political and economic outlook. Significance At the end of April the IMF conducted its fifth review under its stand-by arrangement with Jamaica. Again the news was generally positive, with continued growth, falling unemployment and a buoyant stock exchange. Impacts International relations will face challenges from the Venezuelan crisis and Brexit. Mild economic recovery will not suffice to combat high levels of crime. Forthcoming elections could jeopardise the government’s commitment to reform.

Mexico's weak GDP growth will outlast Pena Nieto

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Severe Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject GDP growth shows no sign of improving in the short-term. Significance In its most recent update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered its forecast for Mexico's 2016 GDP growth to 2.4% from 2.6% foreseen in January. This figure compares well with other Latin American countries -- notably Brazil and Venezuela -- yet it marks the continuation of a trend of meagre expansion that has characterised President Enrique Pena Nieto's time in office despite his efforts to introduce economic reforms. Impacts Further reform to encourage greater flexibility in the labour market will be key to increasing small business productivity. Low growth and a lack of prospects for the young will feed into Mexico's rising crime rates. The lack of growth could become a severe problem for the government both directly and indirectly in the 2018 election.

Prospects for Central Asia in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The World ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Imf

Subject Prospects for Central Asia in 2016. Significance In October, both the World Bank and the IMF downgraded Central Asia's economic growth outlook for 2016. The previous month, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had signalled the rising influence of extremist organisations, first and foremost the Islamic State group (ISG) across the region. Central Asian regimes are faced with a multitude of risks, including political destabilisation.

Turkmen economy shows increasing signs of strain

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Food Shortages ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases

Subject Economic problems in Turkmenistan. Significance Although Turkmenistan has the world's fourth-largest natural gas reserves and is classed as an 'upper middle income' country by the World Bank, few signs of wealth are evident apart from prestige construction projects. Reports of food shortages and inflation suggest the government lacks the export revenues to support a state-controlled economy. Impacts Nominal wage increases will not offset the decline in consumer purchasing power due to inflation and manat devaluation. The number of Turkmenistan nationals working abroad will grow further. If the government is prepared to reciprocate, other Central Asian states are increasingly interested in expanding trade links.

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