US-Cuba thaw will raise hopes of extractives boost

Subject Cuba extractive opportunities. Significance US President Barack Obama's recent visit to Cuba has increased hopes of an economic recovery in the isolated island nation. Cuba is said to have almost 250 mining and energy projects in need of investors and is experiencing a sudden, but modest, investment boost thanks to its rapprochement with the United States. Impacts The prospect of the embargo being lifted could encourage more foreign companies to invest now to beat a possible rush. The end of the embargo would be a boon for Canadian mining firms, facilitating investment, operations and sales. While some firms may sell their Cuban operations, others will see capital injections from US companies. Operational practices will face closer scrutiny, necessitating increased investment in raising standards.

Subject Chinese FDI into Europe. Significance China's hosting of the G20 summit on September 4-5 came as it is recalibrating its foreign economic strategy, becoming a major investor in the West and particularly the EU. With a few notable exceptions, EU governments have been keen to encourage those investments. Impacts While China will continue to relax restrictions on investments into its domestic economy, it is unlikely to reciprocate fully to the EU. Sectors China considers strategic, including defence equipment and infrastructure, will remain out of bounds to foreign companies. Concerns about the geostrategic risk of Chinese investments appear to resonate more strongly in Australia and the United States than the EU.


Significance However, the economic and geopolitical environment which facilitated its global regulatory success is changing. Impacts The EU’s unprecedented economic recovery plan should strengthen unity and give it confidence to act stronger on the global stage. Political values will play an increasingly prominent role in shaping the bloc’s relationship with countries such as China. The election of Democratic candidate Joe Biden will not guarantee closer regulatory ties between the United States and the EU.


Significance Japan is viewed by ASEAN states as the most constructive player among the major powers. China is seen as aggressive and the United States as unreliable under President Donald Trump. Impacts Suga is unlikely to remain in office for more than a year. Post-pandemic economic recovery in Japan will be slow due to weak demand for its manufactured goods at home and abroad. China’s stance over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and the missile threat from North Korea will be Tokyo’s top security concerns.


Significance The USMCA represents continuity with NAFTA in most sectors, but introduces new rules governing the automotive trade, a key industry for Mexico’s economy. The challenges of USMCA implementation come on top of a severe economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts The USMCA provides some commercial certainty for investors in Mexico, in a context of political and health risks. The new rules bring opportunities for new auto investment in Mexico, but these may come at the expense of higher overall production costs. The agreement’s immediate impact will depend on the pace of economic recovery in Mexico and the United States.


Subject Anti-monopoly rules and enforcement in China. Significance Beijing late last year consolidated its anti-monopoly authorities within a single organisation, the State Administration for Market Regulation. Impacts The internet economy will be a major focus of future legislation and anti-monopoly action. Regulators will seek a balance between protecting intellectual property and preventing foreign companies charging excessive licensing fees. Anti-monopoly regulations may be used more selectively and aggressively if economic tensions with the United States are not de-escalated.


Significance The memorandum also references cooperation in digital connectivity and supply chain resilience in the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Africa, the Western Hemisphere and Central and Eastern Europe. This is an implicit challenge to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Impacts Washington will take a more confrontational approach to the BRI, and Tokyo a more conciliatory one. Australia will deepen its involvement in joint projects with Japan and the United States, particularly in the South Pacific. Japan has been skilful in forming bilateral infrastructure partnerships with Quad countries, but is wary of a formal Quad partnership. To lower the temperature, Japan also partners with China on some joint projects, such as a railway in Thailand. US-Japan cooperation on overseas energy projects aims to curb their rivalry in this sector and improve competitiveness against China.


Significance A recent IMF mission reported considerable progress towards agreement on a proposed 1.2-billion-dollar rescue package. However, the increasingly authoritarian bent of the Patriotic Front (PF) government is complicating prospects for wider financial assistance. International donors are wary of supporting President Edgar Lungu who stands accused of rigging the 2016 presidential elections, undermining civil society, and interfering with the judiciary to secure a controversial third, five-year term in office. Impacts Without a comprehensive economic recovery plan in place shortly, ratings agency downgrades could take place later this year. The removal of popular subsidies on food and electricity is likely to trigger popular protest and result in opposition gains. Rising demand for copper in the United States and China may result in a spike in prices, alleviating economic decline.


Significance GDP posted growth of 9.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, the highest rate in 23 years. According to high-frequency data, economic recovery appears to have continued between July and September albeit at a slightly slower pace. Impacts Low inflation will allow the Central Bank to maintain an accommodative stance in the short term; any rate hikes next year will be gradual. Banks’ profitability and credit quality may deteriorate in 2022 as loan restructuring measures expire and lagged pandemic effects kick in. The exchange rate may further depreciate amid uncertainty over the country’s fiscal prospects and the outcome of the 2022 elections. While tourism appears to be on a strong trajectory, the spread of Omicron in Europe and the United States could reverse its recovery.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-126
Author(s):  
Takisha Durm

PurposeThe Girl Who Buried Her Dreams in a Can, written by Dr Tererai, profiles a cultural, yet global experience of the power of believing in one's dream. Through this study of the similarities and differences of how children in the United States and abroad live and dream of a better life, this lesson seeks to enhance students' understandings of the power and authority they possess to effect change not only within their own lives but also in the lives of countless others in world. After reading the text, students will work to create vision boards illustrating their plans to effect change within their homes, schools, communities, states or countries. They will present their plans to their peers. To culminate the lesson, the students will bury their dreams in can and collectively decide on a future date to revisit the can to determine how far they have progressed in accomplishing their goals.Design/methodology/approachThis is an elementary grades 3–6 lesson plan. There was no research design/methodology/approach included.FindingsAs this is a lesson plan and no actual research was represented, there are no findings.Originality/valueThis is an original lesson plan completed by the first author Takisha Durm.


Significance Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies. Impacts The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible. The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies. The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China. Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting. Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.


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