UK election result lowers risk of EU exit

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
International Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Parliament ◽  
Policy Challenge ◽  
To Receive ◽  
The Eu

Significance The election of a Conservative-only government will ensure broad continuity in both economic and international policy, as well as more stable government than had been expected. The new Parliament is likely to last its full five-year term. There will be a referendum by the end of 2017 on the United Kingdom's EU membership, but the likelihood of a UK vote to stay in has risen. Scotland may represent the new government's principal policy challenge. Impacts Financial markets are likely to receive the outcome with relief, given that the likely alternative was pronounced and atypical uncertainty. The greatest risk of 'Brexit' is now a renewed euro-area crisis harming the EU economy and UK public opinion. Serious bargaining over a future UK constitutional settlement may be deferred until after the Scottish Parliament election in May 2016. In the medium term, the Labour Party is likely to conclude that it needs to return to a more centrist, business-friendly, 'Blairite' stance. The extent to which the result defied pollsters' and forecasters' predictions could prompt significant change in the business.

Prospects for Europe in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Stakes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conservative Government ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
External Threat ◽  
To Come ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Eu Support ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for Europe in the second quarter. Significance This quarter will see highly contentious, high-stakes politics that could shape the future of the EU for years to come. First, a decision point is fast approaching that will determine whether Greece will continue to receive bailouts or be cut off from EU support, default on its debt and -- potentially -- exit the euro-area. Second, the United Kingdom could re-elect a Conservative government, which would then follow through on its vow to hold an 'in-out' referendum on EU membership by 2017. Finally, the EU faces a crucial test of unity against its greatest external threat -- Russia.

'Brexit' fallout could hit EU financial assets widely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Run Up ◽  
High Yields ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The potential fallout from 'Brexit' on both UK and EU-wide financial assets. Significance In the run-up to the June 23 referendum on the United Kingdom's EU membership, the 'Brexit' risk has been weighing on UK confidence and investment. The reaction in financial markets has been more benign, with the pound rising by 3.6% against the dollar since end-February and a 54-basis-point (bp) year-to-date fall in the ten-year gilts yield. The absence of a 'Brexit premium' suggests investors may be underpricing both the UK-specific and EU-wide risks associated with a UK exit from the EU at a time of heightened market volatility. Impacts UK government bonds, along with their US equivalents, will remain attractive to investors because of their relatively high yields. Meanwhile, euro-area and Japanese bonds, whose yields are negative or slightly positive at best, will remain unattractive. The prolonged uncertainty during the post-referendum renegotiations could shave 1.0-1.5 pp off UK GDP growth by end-2017. The wide UK current account deficit and the country's reliance on foreign capital underscore the risks associated with Brexit.

Prospects for the EU in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for the EU in 2016. Significance The EU faces overlapping crises, in security, migration, macroeconomic policy and financial markets, when it must also deal with the United Kingdom's forthcoming EU membership referendum and related demands to renegotiate membership terms. The EU's crises matter not because of their number but because the bloc's efforts to act in any one area run into conflicts in others. Efforts to resolve these contradictions will dominate the politics of 2016, but may delay or undermine the effectiveness of the EU's response to any one of its crises.

SNP to bide time on independence from United Kingdom

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
General Election ◽  
Nuclear System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Parliament ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance With the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and 2015 UK general election behind them, parties in Scotland are starting to focus on the May 2016 Scottish Parliament elections. Impacts The Conservatives' Scottish Parliament vote share is likely to rise at Labour's expense, through an appeal to hardcore unionists. In the UK EU membership referendum, the SNP will run its own campaign against leaving the EU ('Brexit'). A UK vote for Brexit, with Scotland voting for continued EU membership, would trigger a second independence referendum. The likely renewal of the Scotland-based UK Trident nuclear system, which the SNP opposes, could also be a pretext for a second referendum. Given the 2014 'no' vote, a second Scottish referendum could be more constitutionally controversial than the first.

Norway’s new government will favour continuity

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Core ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government

Significance The Labour, Centre and Socialist Left parties together hold a majority of parliamentary seats. Labour and Centre seem certain to form the core of the government; they might rule as a minority if they cannot bridge disagreements with the more radical Socialist Left over tax and climate policy. Impacts The election represents the best result for anti-EEA parties since Norway’s 1994 vote to reject EU membership. A sustained downturn in global financial markets could reduce the spending resources of Norway’s huge sovereign wealth fund. European demand for Norwegian gas will increase amid rising energy prices across Europe, partially caused by reduced production.

scholarly journals The geopolitics of future tourism development in an expanding EU

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-164
Author(s):  
Peter Antony Singleton
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Development ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Tourism Flows ◽  
The Eu

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assert the link between the process of EU accession, the consolidation of democratic processes and the improvement of economic and tourism infrastructure to incoming tourism flows. Design/methodology/approach The methodology of this paper involves explanation of an analysis exploring links between governmental systems and the order necessary for economic development and tourism. The argument is supported by the recent history of tourism development in three countries, two within the EU and one outside. Findings Accession to the EU (especially in the case of Eastern European countries) constitutes a way to emulate the democratic freedoms and greater economic prosperity of existing EU member states. Tourism is one of the areas of economy that benefits from the stability and growth EU membership can bring. Accession to the EU has had beneficial effects for acceding in terms of political stability and tourism growth. Originality/value The opportunities that EU membership can bring to tourism development for example (also strategies to exploit these opportunities) depend to a large degree on the international relations between the EU and its rivals. The extent to which tourism demands ebb and flow is governed by a range of factors, but the issues of conflict and security are game breakers. Understanding the factors and trends involved in the peaceful resolution of conflict (democratic model) or use of force to resolve conflict (military model) is key in the analysis of future tourism opportunities.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

Migrants help keep Central European populists in power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Populists' exploitation of the refugee crisis in Central Europe. Significance Support for populist parties has risen after last year's refugee crisis across the EU, but nowhere have they been as successful as in Central Europe (CE). Peddling migrant fears has secured the re-election of Robert Fico's Smer (Slovakia) and the revival of Viktor Orban's Fidesz (Hungary) from a post-election popularity slump. On the back of the migration tide, populists are transforming CE's political trajectory. Impacts A united CE front will gain prominence at the EU, stoking tensions with Berlin on migration policy and the future of EU integration. The strengthened legitimacy of illiberal positions on migration will foster the emergence of imitators elsewhere in Europe. The chance of an EU-level, long-term solution to the refugee crisis will remain slim in the medium term.

UK's Cameron likely to go for EU referendum in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
German Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.

European Parliament vote will raise more TTIP doubts

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Deep Integration ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu

Subject The European Parliament and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Significance The last-minute decision of the European Parliament (EP) to postpone a June 10 debate and vote on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has exposed important divisions among its members (MEPs) over whether and how closer EU-US economic ties can be secured. While non-binding at this stage, the debate and vote would have provided important guidance to the European Commission on its priorities and room for manoeuvre as it engages in further negotiations with the United States. TTIP must ultimately be ratified by the EP, which has voted down international agreements in the past. Impacts The EP's difficulties in finalising its views could constrain the Commission in the TTIP negotiations. However, given the EP's ultimate veto over the deal, time spent now on hammering out an ISDS formula it could accept may not be wasted. Any rejection of TTIP, particularly over ISDS, could raise questions over future international trade deals premised on deep integration. TTIP rejection could even jeopardise concluded trade deals awaiting ratification, such as that between the EU and Canada. Progress on TTIP is among the measures sought by UK Prime Minister David Cameron before his EU membership referendum.

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