Uncertainty will moderate the UK sterling rally

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
The Eu

Subject Influence of Brexit on financial markets. Significance Prime Minister Boris Johnson's letter to the EU requesting another Brexit delay (although he still hopes to leave by October 31) has injected more uncertainty into financial market trading. Investors see the Brexit outcomes as binary: either a chaotic departure, triggering a dramatic sell-off in UK assets, or an orderly withdrawal, triggering a rally. Impacts The FTSE 100 index has fallen 7% since July 3 and UK equities are likely to remain unpopular as much uncertainty will persist post-Brexit. Monthly data suggest that UK GDP is on track to avoid recession in the July-September quarter, but it will struggle to stay on this track. Sterling will fall if there is a no-deal exit, offsetting trade barriers, but exporters will see little benefit amid weak global growth.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

UK's Cameron likely to go for EU referendum in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
German Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.

Support for Scottish independence is growing stronger

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Sustained Increase

Significance For the first time, there is a sustained increase in support for Scottish independence. The main reasons include dislike of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet north of the border, the UK government’s pursuit of a ‘hard’ Brexit and questions about its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Soaring Scottish unemployment when the UK furlough schemes end would undermine London’s claim to be protecting Scottish jobs. Rising support for Scottish independence could prompt the UK government to seek a closer trade agreement with the EU. The UK government will be unable to conceal the economic impacts of Brexit under the economic fallout of COVID-19. A Scottish vote for independence would put huge pressure on the UK government to resign and call early elections.

'Brexit' fallout could hit EU financial assets widely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Run Up ◽  
High Yields ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The potential fallout from 'Brexit' on both UK and EU-wide financial assets. Significance In the run-up to the June 23 referendum on the United Kingdom's EU membership, the 'Brexit' risk has been weighing on UK confidence and investment. The reaction in financial markets has been more benign, with the pound rising by 3.6% against the dollar since end-February and a 54-basis-point (bp) year-to-date fall in the ten-year gilts yield. The absence of a 'Brexit premium' suggests investors may be underpricing both the UK-specific and EU-wide risks associated with a UK exit from the EU at a time of heightened market volatility. Impacts UK government bonds, along with their US equivalents, will remain attractive to investors because of their relatively high yields. Meanwhile, euro-area and Japanese bonds, whose yields are negative or slightly positive at best, will remain unattractive. The prolonged uncertainty during the post-referendum renegotiations could shave 1.0-1.5 pp off UK GDP growth by end-2017. The wide UK current account deficit and the country's reliance on foreign capital underscore the risks associated with Brexit.

Brexit will renew pressure on Swiss franc

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Threat ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Market Turbulence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Private Banking ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for the Swiss economy. Significance Financial market turbulence following the UK vote to leave the EU has caused sharp pound depreciation and demand for 'safe-haven' assets, including the Swiss franc. With official interest rates already negative, Swiss authorities can do little except intervene directly in the foreign-exchange (forex) market. So far, the franc has remained below the high hit in January 2015 following the Swiss National Bank (SNB)'s decision to end the currency's peg to the euro. However, concerns over the economic threat of a strong franc and the high cost of living in Switzerland will be revived. Impacts The SNB is unlikely to reintroduce the euro peg. Further economic weakness and more job losses will emerge if the franc and its cost base strengthen further. With the exception of particular niches, the movement of both commuters and businesses to cheaper EU bases may accelerate. Exceptions include sectors of specialism, such as pharmaceuticals, private banking and headquarter operations for multinationals.

UK opposition could block a December 12 election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK Brexit strategy. Significance Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s call yesterday for a December 12 election has complicated deliberations in Brussels on the length of the extension to the Brexit process that the EU is prepared to offer. EU ambassadors had been hoping to agree a three-month extension today until January 31, but a decision will now be delayed until next week, pending a vote in the UK Parliament on October 28 to hold an early election. Impacts Further attempts to pass Brexit legislation in Parliament will depend on the support of a small number of opposition Labour MPs. Most of the EU is as keen as Johnson to 'get Brexit done' -- they no longer hold out much hope for a second referendum. It will be extremely difficult to agree a future trade deal before the end of a post-Brexit transition period in December 2020.

The “EU Brexit” implication on a single banking license and other aspects of financial markets regulation in the UK

2016 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 468-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norman Mugarura
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Individual Member ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Regional Markets ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Financial Markets Regulation

Purpose The aim of the paper is to provide a review of potential Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU) and its implication on financial markets regulation in the EU and UK. It explores the terrain for financial markets regulation in the EU, pointing out how it impinges on the national legal system of EU countries and what it could mean for the UK. It navigates the legal reforms the UK will have to undertake to fill the void caused by its exit from the EU. Lastly, the paper proffers its thoughtful analysis of the reform to undertake if the UK exited the EU, both in the UK and the EU. Design/methodology/approach The paper has internalized empirical data generated by different interest groups on the implication of potential British exit from the EU on markets and other core issues which underpin the UK/EU relationship. These data were available in most major UK newspapers, academic journals and textbooks, especially in expositing conceptual and theoretical issues underpinning the paper. It has drawn comparisons with other jurisdictions, especially in East Africa, to demonstrate the inherent challenges in integration of regional markets on individual member countries. The paper also articulates other regulatory issues such as mutual recognition and the cost of Brexit on businesses in the EU/UK. Findings The findings of the paper confirm that British interests are likely to be better protected if it remains the member of the EU but could be undermined if it relinquishes its membership. Studies have been carried out by academic think tanks and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and they all indicate that British exit from the EU could be counterproductive for the UK. Contemporary global challenges need global solutions, thus Britain will still need to forge alliance with EU countries. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the paper was that there are not many comparative studies carried out on countries which have exited regional market initiatives and their experiences after that. The paper has alluded to the experience of Uganda, which quit the East African Community (EAC) in 1977 and rejoined it 23 years later. In a crucial issue like Brexit, the paper would better evaluate the potential Brexit is drawing on experiences of countries which have exited and how they have fared after that. There were not many comparable case studies on countries which have exited regional markets. Practical implications The paper discusses important practical issues relating to Brexit and its implications on the UK/EU government and economies. It is practical because it weighs in on important policy and legal issues on regulation of markets in the post-Brexit era in the UK and EU. As the UK government goes for a referendum to decide its future relationship with EU, it will need to evaluate its decisions by internalizing academic literature on Brexit, such as this paper. Social implications The paper has social implications because Brexit will affect people and markets in varied ways. It addresses pertinent issues related to the UK and its implication in the post-Brexit era on the UK/EU economies. Originality/value The paper is timely, original and a must read because it discusses pertinent issues of the potential British exit and its implication for the UK and other stakeholders in a distinctive way.

A backstop solution to Brexit has some potential

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit negotiations. Significance A Northern Ireland-specific agreement is now the best hope for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to deliver Brexit by October 31 with a deal. While Johnson would likely accept alignment of Northern Ireland with EU rules if this meant replacing the UK-wide backstop, convincing his Northern Irish allies in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) remains the key challenge. Impacts Delivering Brexit with a deal will increase the prospects for a UK-US free trade agreement. A risk of a Northern Ireland backstop is that it will invite pressure from Scottish nationalists, who would want similar special treatment. The EU is likely to accept an Article 50 extension request if an election or referendum is due to take place.

UK prime minister will likely remain in power for now

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Eu

Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

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