Renewables, gas to boost South Africa power outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Load Shedding ◽  
Power Supplies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Costs

Significance This is a marked shift from 2015, when regular blackouts or 'load shedding' due to breakdowns and emergency maintenance procedures caused significant disruptions, hurting GDP growth. Eskom generates 95% of South Africa's power. Impacts Improved power supplies will be insufficient to boost GDP growth, which is weighed down by low commodity prices and weak consumer demand. The president's close ties with Russia will fuel suspicion that a secret nuclear deal with Moscow could override a formal tender process. The success of South Africa's renewable energy programme would provide a foundation for the wider region's renewables ambitions. Eskom's preference for procuring coal from black-owned supply firms will reduce competition, potentially increasing costs. Eskom employees' rejection of the utility's 5% wage hike offer portends a higher settlement, resulting in increased labour costs.

Commodity prices, the exchange rate and manufacturing in South Africa: what do the data say?

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 356-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Hodge
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
Unit Labour Costs

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical relationships between changes in OECD output, commodity prices, the real exchange rate, real money supply, unit labour costs and manufacturing in South Africa. In particular, to test a version of the Dutch disease argument that increases in the prices of South Africa’s main commodity exports have had a negative effect on domestic manufacturing against the alternative hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between such changes in commodity prices and domestic manufacturing output. Design/methodology/approach – Construction of a model including real manufacturing output in South Africa as the dependent variable and the following independent variables: OECD output, an international real metals price index, a real effective exchange rate index, real M3 money supply and manufacturing unit labour costs. The time series sample data comprise 124 quarterly observations for the period 1980-2010. The model equation was tested and estimated using a Johansen cointegration approach. Findings – The main findings are: OECD output is the single most important determinant of domestic manufacturing output; while the real exchange rate has the predicted negative sign, rising commodity prices are associated with increases rather than decreases in domestic manufacturing and; large increases in unit labour costs since the early 1980s have dragged down manufacturing over the sample period. Originality/value – The finding of a positive relationship between commodity prices and domestic manufacturing means that the Dutch disease argument must be revised when applied to South Africa. While rising commodity prices may lead to a negative exchange rate effect on manufacturing competitiveness, this is more than offset by the positive growth effects associated with upswings in the commodity price cycle.

Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emission in BRICS

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 248-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umer Jeelanie Banday ◽  
Ranjan Aneja
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Purpose The purpose of this study is to find the causal relationship among energy consumption (renewable energy and non-renewable energy), gross domestic product (GDP) growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa for the period of 1990-2017. Design/methodology/approach The study uses bootstrap Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test, which accepts heterogeneity and dependency in cross-sectional units across emerging countries. Findings The results find unidirectional causality from GDP to CO2 for India, China, Brazil, South Africa and no causality for Russia. The causality results from renewable energy consumption to GDP show that there is evidence of feedback hypothesis for China and Brazil, growth hypothesis for Russia, conservation hypothesis for South Africa and neutrality hypothesis for India. However, the results accept growth hypothesis for India, China, Russia, Brazil and neutrality hypothesis for South Africa. In the case of renewable energy and non-renewable energy consumption to CO2 emission, the results find convergence in India, Russia and South Africa and divergence in China and Brazil. Originality/value It is the first study that investigates the part of balanced economic growth, instead of simply financial development in those economies. Numerous studies have used diverse factors such as economic development, renewable energy, non-renewable energy and CO2 emission; however, the examination has used total GDP growth rate, energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

South Africa's needless nuclear plan may be ruinous

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Power Supplies ◽  
Electricity Distribution ◽  
Content Type

Significance Critics worry that the over 700-billion-rand (50-billion-dollar) scheme is unaffordable and would facilitate large-scale graft. Impacts Power exports to neighbouring states will help offset shortages caused by drought, which is limiting their hydroelectric output. Zuma's protection will insulate the energy minister from a scandal surrounding the sale of the state's strategic fuel stocks. Low commodity prices will limit mining firms' appetite to leverage improved power supplies to expand their operations. Reliance on electricity distribution revenues will temper city authorities' desire to push renewable energy. The nuclear programme would create extensive opportunities for kickbacks to politically connected businesspeople.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Prospects for Africa's economies to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Idiosyncratic Shocks ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Eastern And Southern Africa

Subject Prospects for Africa's economies to end-2016. Significance The IMF's most recent forecast of 3% GDP growth for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2016 represents a significant cut from the 4.25% it expected in October 2015. This is a consequence of sharp slowdowns in the region's two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, droughts in previously buoyant economies (notably in eastern and southern Africa), a variety of idiosyncratic shocks and a prolonged commodity price downturn.

Bulk trade boost could help South Africa GDP growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type

Headline SOUTH AFRICA: Bulk trade boost could help GDP growth

Renewable energy growth faces questions in Chile

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Growth ◽  
The Face ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Export Industries

Subject The rapid expansion of renewable energy in Chile. Significance A tender for power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Chile's main distributors, scheduled for late July, will be an important test not only of future electricity prices but also of the ability of the country's non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE) sector to maintain its rapid growth in the face of cheaper conventional fuels. NCREs offer many immediate advantages by way of supply diversification -- in a country that has to import almost all its fossil fuels -- and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts Government studies suggest that, by 2035, NCREs could be producing 40% of Chile's electricity. NCRE projects are boosting competition in Chile's electricity industry, previously dominated by a handful of players. Cheaper electricity is helping to cushion export industries, including mining, against lower commodity prices.

Prospects for Southern Africa in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Party Leadership ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for Southern Africa in 2016. Significance The region faces several elections (presidential, legislative, local and party leadership) next year. The underlying dynamics of these will be shaped by cooling GDP growth linked to low commodity prices, severe drought, power deficits and rising political strains both within ruling parties, such South Africa's ANC, and between former foes, such as Mozambique's FRELIMO and RENAMO.

Prospects for African economies in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Prospects for African economies in 2019. Significance Sub-Saharan Africa’s gradual recovery is set to strengthen in 2019 with regional GDP growth seen accelerating to 3.1% from 2.7% in 2018, led by recoveries in the three largest economies -- Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to average around 4% over the medium term, reflecting continuing convergence between high- and low-performing countries, although wide disparities will persist.

South Africa's GDP growth will disappoint

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type

Headline SOUTH AFRICA: GDP growth will disappoint

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