Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.


Significance The Council’s move reflected, inter alia, the slow progress made in the reform of Albania’s judiciary. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Edi Rama’s ruling Socialist Party (PS) says it is still intent on impeaching President Ilir Meta and the opposition continues to call for early elections. Impacts The EU’s decision will probably prompt the government to be more accommodating towards Meta and the opposition. As the process of EU integration slows, Albania will forge closer ties with neighbours. Uncertainty over Albania’s EU prospects and the political crisis will hurt GDP growth, which in January-June was the slowest in four years.


Subject Japan's participation in UN peacekeeping operations. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration will withdraw Japan's Ground Self Defence Force (GSDF) mission from the UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) in South Sudan in May. The decision follows accusations that the government covered up evidence of the dangers the troops were facing, and raises potential questions about Japan’s commitment to its policy of a ‘proactive contribution to peace’. Impacts The announcement of withdrawal will reduce the political impact if there are casualties. Defence Minister Tomomi Inada will probably survive accusations of a cover-up, with ministry officials taking the blame. Japan will contribute personnel to UNPKOs again in future, to gain experience and earn goodwill internationally. There will be minimal implications for Japan's other security cooperation efforts, which focus on deterring China and North Korea.


Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.


Subject Composition and agenda of a likely unity government. Significance De facto opposition leader Benny Gantz on March 26 agreed to enter a coalition with incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The government, terms for which have yet to be finalised, would end the political deadlock that three back-to-back elections failed to break. Although the prospective coalition will enjoy a Knesset majority of at least 75 seats, it will also cover a wide and awkward ideological spectrum. Impacts Netanyahu will remain the dominant figure on the political scene for another 18 months, if not beyond. Equal division of portfolios between Blue and White and religious-right parties will mean a more moderate government than the previous one. Gantz’s decision has split his party and leaves the centre-left weaker and more divided than ever. The new coalition will address issues that have been put on hold during the extended interregnum and restore normal government functioning.


Subject The political and economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Despite combined GDP growth of nearly 20% over the last two years, the fall in commodity prices has exposed the downside risks in the government's economic strategy and seriously damaged its political credibility. A government cash crisis driven by a 20% fall in expected revenues in 2015 is fracturing the country's politics. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a history of getting through crises, although this has usually involved a changing of the prime minister and an IMF programme. Impacts The government budget crisis and foreign exchange shortages will hurt growth in 2016. There is a risk of forced sale of foreign-owned businesses and land. Foreign exchange shortages may be the greatest risk to businesses.


Subject Election outlook in Uganda. Significance President Yoweri Museveni is confirmed as the National Resistance Movement's (NRM) official presidential candidate for February 2016 general elections. His most threatening challenger is former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, whose defection is the most significant in a decade. However, in the wake of the NRM party primaries and delegates conference, Museveni has shown his ability to consolidate support among the political elite. Impacts Uganda's elections will distract focus from its official mediation role in Burundi's deteriorating security crisis. However, Museveni may also guard Uganda's position as the regional mediator for fear of losing influence. Burundi is at high risk of civil conflict, with repercussions for regional stability ahead of Uganda's elections.


Significance His call comes as Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is seeking to revive plans for wide-scale reform of government, with a new initiative to replace cabinet ministers with technocrats. Launched last August, the reforms seek to cut Iraq's bloated government and tackle rampant corruption, but are encountering tough opposition from all sectors of the political elite. Impacts Efforts to push through ministerial change will weaken Abadi's support base among Shia parties. Longer term, failure on reform may see Abadi lose the backing of the Shia clergy, his strongest source of political support and legitimacy. This would leave Abadi dependent on US support, increasing the risk of efforts to remove him and replace with a pro-Iran figure. Without reform, Iraq's fiscal crisis will worsen and pressure for decentralised regional government will increase.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Hodkinson

In 2014, the United Kingdom Coalition Government, after the now infamous Trojan Horse incident, insisted that all children learn Fundamental British Values. Cameron, as Prime Minister, argued that such values, coupled with “muscular liberalism” would “challenge extremist ideology, exposing it for the lie that it is.” This article exists at the place of the apostrophe—as the scare mark (‘ ’) becomes an enclosure, enclosing a manufactured possession. “Is Britishness just a made up concept? Who determines what is or is not fundamental? I want to problematize what they include and exclude in their concept of “British Values.” What is this “British” they talk about and why do they feel a need for this “Britain” to exist? Within the enclosures provided by ‘ten scare marks’, I present research into historical and contemporary formulations of Britishness taken from academic texts, school textbooks, and websites. In addition, by invoking the work of Serres, Bhabba, and Billig, I seek to confront Cameron’s challenging discourse. Within this article, I do not though attempt to detail an authentic Britishness but rather from the outset argue that there is, and This analysis is disturbing. It disturbs my thoughts but also my personal history- it is troubling. never was any authenticity in this concept. What I seek to argue here is that their “British-ness” is nothing more than a portable, lean-to concept of violence. A “manufactured concept” (Nationalism and the origins of prejudice, International Journal of Historical Teaching, Learning and Research) which locates an inclusion but by default formulates an exclusion whose antecedents lie more in the government counter terrorists’ strategies than any substantial historical fact If it is manufactured where does this leave my schooling – which told me Britain was great? (Britishness from a linguistic perspective in school textbooks). The paper concludes by suggesting that their “Britain” is a rhetorical trope. It is itself a Trojan horse—which through flagging and banal nationalism (Banal nationalism) indoctrinates and radicalizes our children into an invented—pererted nationalism that the political elite employs to deal with a perceived/conceived/contrived threat of an internal other to our geographical, historical, and ideological borders.


Subject The political crises facing the government. Significance Prime Minister Najib Razak faces his worst array of political crises to date. These include alleged mismanagement of one of Malaysia's sovereign wealth funds, controversial tightening of security legislation and the potentially inflationary implementation of a goods and services tax. Personal criticism by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad compounds these difficulties, although the leadership of Najib's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has rallied around him. Impacts If Najib's political position worsens, pressure will grow within UMNO to replace him. By-elections in May will be bellwethers for public perceptions of the opposition and governing coalition's popularity. The 'hudud' controversy could split the opposition coalition during parliament's next session.


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